Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Matthew I have had a quick look at the Terrible LTD and assuming that the games that lost all ended as a draw and werent traded in any way then the ROI looks amazing at 22%
Are these all selections from one filter?
I have adjusted the J column to show 'what if' backing at the LTD price and using £1 stakes. Obviously you can multiply that by whatever stake you are comfortable with.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IwYNr7AsefMzN6JdUc6odyoNALCu7glS_6CvSM1xTc4/edit?usp=sharing
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The thing I can't get my head around is why the ltd principles work so well with winter leagues but don't work with summer leagues and why the back the draw works so well with the winter leagues but doesn't with summer leagues.
It's almost like the Betfair laws reverse with the summer leagues
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Link for sheets with 1060 games from the raw data set, includes home and away forms from the last 5 games
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Up3QiVG0ULMeBWqB0EASknhyUL4xzdLhn9H7DLnzcMU/edit?usp=sharingIncludes 429 results from good ltd selections that's league and odds filtered
£1278 up with £10 stakes since Feb 23 and includes terrible Ltd selections that are -£1535 is league and odds restrictedThe Selections I've traded daily are under the 3 wins 3 loss its up £979 ( if using £10 stakes )since January however it isn't doing so well with summer leagues
I've also included Martin's lay away with odds selection of 2.3-5.8 and league restrictions that is £1,796.80 up since it started
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@Matthew said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Need to give thanks to @Martin for posting the YouTube video about flipping strategies. Since joining btc last July I’ve paper traded thousands of games with many different strategies.
Here is a LTD filter set and forget I’ve paper traded since January with with 650 games… I guess its time to flip it and go live. I’d be willing to share if anyone is interested
I would be very interested as well 650 games followed/recorded is a lot of work.
Any chance of getting a copy of the spreadsheet so I can do some calculations -
@Matthew Me too, please.
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@Matthew yes please mate i would like a look into that
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@Matthew ok good to know thanks alot for that i am just starting to follow this strat so i will also follow that and keep an eye on that too.
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Going through the sheet Martin has posted . There’s two china games that are included and but they are in the red. When trying this filter with china games personally it always looses. Obviously going off 20 games isn’t really enough buts it’s 20 points down from what I’ve paper traded. Will continue to paper trade
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Need to give thanks to @Martin for posting the YouTube video about flipping strategies. Since joining btc last July I’ve paper traded thousands of games with many different strategies.
Here is a LTD filter set and forget I’ve paper traded since January with with 650 games… I guess its time to flip it and go live. I’d be willing to share if anyone is interested
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@Matthew just wondered what is the reasoning behind discarding china from the strat? thanks andy
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@dave-tancock @Martin ....is this under the New Lay Away or ELO Away Team Lays?
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@Matthew not restricted anything yet with this strategy, barring away odds over 2.00. But weekend was good with approx 20 points up for me as well
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Lay the away team this weekend using odds between 2.3 and 5.8 every league included apart from china
14 points up off 33 selections
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@Steven-Fletcher mad how many more selections pop up during the day, I know I missed a few days as I was ill for part of the month, I'm guessing the odds not being formed on some of the markets mean the selections don't show as they will not have hit the target price range
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@Martin having reviewed my data this month i think one thing with these strategies that people may not take into consideration when looking at set and forget is timing. As football odds don't move as much as horse racing there doesn't seem much consideration into at what point people enter the trade.
I think in the past @Martin has said in videos that he tends to place these in the morning. Due to my style of trading i rarely have time in the mornings so instead like to set things up the night before and then use automation. As a result most of my trades are set to enter 10 minutes before kick off via a bot. The other change I've made as a result of how I trade these strategies is that I have removed the odds range from the BTC software and use the odds criteria in the bot to ensure that the potential selections fit the odds ranges. This is because often the markets haven't formed the night before and I would typically find I missed many of the selections that made it into the main google doc. I believe this is because the software goes on LTP so if there hasn't been trading they wont fall into the right odds range (not much of a surprise with markets sometimes 12-24 hours from kick off). This month my results for the over 3.5 lay were very different from Martin's.
The yellow entries on the right are the selections that mirror the test doc so you can see there are a number which didn't appear on the main doc. The leagues though (with the exception of an Austria game) are leagues not in the first few or last few matches and the odds are within the right range. One is up and one is down for the month
At the moment I'm only forward testing these but I think this illustrates what has been said countless times on the podcasts etc that this isn't a tipping service and you have to understand the strategies. I'm not overly concerned by my results as i feel that over time i will be getting value but I thought it was worth posting this. It's quite a difference and its something people may not have considered before
It definitely supports what @Ryan is always saying about how no one can tell you what is the best strategy for you to trade. You have to try it and understand what works for you with how you want to do it. If the trend continues for a few months I may decide that this strategy isn't one that works well the night before and doesn't work for me at the moment.
edited as my original screen shot didnt have the odds for my testing
