Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Tony-Hastie it's not a bad strategy so I wouldn't flip it but you could test that.
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@dave-tancock think the over 1.5 needs to be scrapped. Tomasz one has been fine if following the not trading end of season rules but no one follows the rules
Scrapped ...or flipped? Ive been listening to your podcasts
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@David-Linney said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Looking at testing the over 3.5 goals lay... So wanted to ask if i should be using over 3.5 goals then lay that selection or should it be under 3.5 goal and then lay that selection instead ?
If your strategy is over 3.5 goal lay, you are saying there will not be over 3.5 goals.
So you either lay the over 3.5 goals market or back the under 3.5 goals market. Both do the same thing. Just depends how you want to do it.
If you want a flat stake you bet £10 (for example) on U3.5 goals (odds will probably be 1.3-1.5 area). Or you lay O3.5 goals (odds probably 3.0-4.0 area). With your stake, you aim to have a liability of £10 (so bet will probably be between £2-3 depending on odds)
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Looking at testing the over 3.5 goals lay... So wanted to ask if i should be using over 3.5 goals then lay that selection or should it be under 3.5 goal and then lay that selection instead ?
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@David-Linney depends, what criteria are you wanting to add?
The over 3.5 lay strategy is in the member filters section.
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Have been testing the over 3.5 goals lay strategy... when setting up the criteria do i need to look for over 3.5 or under 3.5 goals in the drop-down menu ?
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@Adam said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Adam based on games per season something like that? So if 33 games have been played in Premier League we know 5 are left. Or even maybe total games per league played %?
We need a source for that info though.... I know we just know the figure for some leagues but we cover quite a few leagues!
gets trickier too when they split off into two tiers like some of the asian (and I think maybe the swiss?) leagues do.
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Adam based on games per season something like that? So if 33 games have been played in Premier League we know 5 are left. Or even maybe total games per league played %?
We need a source for that info though.... I know we just know the figure for some leagues but we cover quite a few leagues!
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@dave-tancock no it's still in testing, one indicator so far is to avoid odds on shots
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@Martin with the new lay away strategy are there any guidelines? Ie don’t trade if the away team is favourite?
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@dave-tancock yeah no reason not to at present (sods law it will turn now I said that
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@Martin thanks for the advice. I’ll leave the over 1.5 for now. With Tomasz lays strategy, are we still using through the summer leagues?
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@Martin Perhaps it would be a good idea to change the filters to account for end of season. So instead of Overall matches played greater than 10 set it as Overall matches played between 10 and 33. I am assuming that an average amount for a league would be 38 matches in total. Someone else might have a better knowledge of a better number than 33 to end with
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@dave-tancock think the over 1.5 needs to be scrapped. Tomasz one has been fine if following the not trading end of season rules but no one follows the rules
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@dave-tancock Yeh I look at the start of the day or in the evening if there are overnight games.
I do also queue bets on qualifiers if they are only a few ticks away from the desired odds range and more often than not they do get matched
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@Andy-Donnelly yeah I think I’ve had 2 out of 9 months profitable with martins over 1.5, and one was basically scratch and the other was about 2 points up. Personally I check the stats software before work as it’s really the only time I have to do so. Did have a quick look at the data I have for it and the only anomaly was 5/5 games at odds of 2.86 lost. Otherwise no obvious trends.
