Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Andy-Donnelly keep doing that for us!
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Has anyone been collating the filter stats alongside the results for the lay away strategy?
Reason I ask is against my smaller sample size, it does look like by moving the home points per game average to say 2.25 or even 2.5 seems to increase profit. Interested if that works across the full data set.
Taking this weekend as an admittedly small sample, those at the bottom of the scale (2.0) were far and away the worst offenders. Close to 20% SR.
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@Karl-Pick Yeh I noticed that some didn't add up and left them, also if the away team were higher in the league. There was a couple on Saturday that were top of the league and 3rd I think so I left them out as well which ended up being the right thing to do. I'm going to sit it out for a bit now and see how it plays out.
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@Karl-Pick the last 2 days of the ashes test were infuriating...West of Scotland was experiencing its 3rd and 4th day of summer About to get rained off now though...
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@Tony-Hastie defo a few leagues that can go, I still want to look at the full data set for now though but am going to paper trade
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@Tony-Hastie said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin I got bored so spent quite a bit of time last night brutally filtering the leagues...but forgot to save it
Im off to paint the fence now...
You can't beat living life on the edge!
Is it not pissing down where you are? -
@dave-tancock it's not had any filtering so kind of expected to have runs like this, for instance we don't know which leagues we should be trading really. probably time to paper trade and see where we are at after 2000 results.
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@Mark-Shaw hopefully itโs a bad weekend. I think the winter leagues are coming to an end so maybe that has affected it?
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@Andrew-Dobinson ouch it did have a good run before last few days
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@dave-tancock Seems very similar to Dans LTD. Tanking big time but hopefully it will stop
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@dave-tancock I only started this strategy on the 19th. ยฃ110 down using ยฃ10 liability stakes . Thatโs with a few more home teams currently giving away a early goal.
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Hoping the lay away strategy doesnโt do the same as dans LTD that ended up being 40 odd points down for the month. Fingers crossed normal service is resumed soon
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@ross-love still testing it but using very small stakes and laying everything in that range
Currently using ยฃ1 stakes to make the test real, I have not done them all as some just don't add up!! This week a 2nd vs 3rd with 6.2 away odds!!
Started July 3rd....138 bets..... bank -ยฃ7.57 -
@Jonathan-West such is the nature of set and forget it will have more variance that trading
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@dave-tancock I'd got used to waking up expecting a nice profit. Oh well, this is why the 1% of bankroll is important right?
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Jono in one day itโs gone from easily best football month to one of the worst. Really hoping this is an aberration
Yep, you and me both!
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Yep, an absolute freak day.
Looking at the numbers and using the selections on the spreadsheet (my version picked up another selection in the early hours...which also lost, but will ignore that) It looks to be that the overall P+L has dropped to where it was on the 11th of June, not even a month and a half ago.
No doubt it has a been a kick in the teeth, I'll be reducing my stakes as I havn't personally forward tested enough. It's a wake up call and reminder for me that the market can be a beast!
One thing I look forward to doing when the back testing comes in is looking back to see how frequently these downturns happen. Looking at the graph there have been 3 significant times of decline since testing started, dividing the timeline up into 10ths these would be the first tenth, the 4th tenth and the final tenth of the chart.
Let's see what next week brings! Onwards and upwards!