Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Does anyone use an amount to win staking plan for a back strategy when the strike rate is high (say 85%+). Presumably just means bigger draw downs but higher ROI?
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Ready to share my findings after today when I should have 300 selections. March has been up and down but I haven't played it at all well and that's to my detriment. Could have been looking at around 12-20pts profit still.
As it is I'm taking the day off and starting fresh tomorrow. I've almost become guilty of expecting that perfect system again but perfect doesn't exist and the sooner I realise this once and for all the better.
Anyway, for better or worse, there are minimal exclusions and none really feel like back fitting to me as the selections and p/l for what I have excluded either makes perfect sense logically or to leave it in at this stage would be a little nuts.
See what you all think after today.
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@Andy-Donnelly No minimum and up to 11.00
The absolute worst game in the 0.5's was a Bosnian game in Sarajevo. All happened when I was only tracking but a hypothetical 10pt loss. -
@Richard-Latimer That’s interesting. I have excluding anything higher than 0.8 being up 50 pts since mid October (up 7 pts in 2024 so far).
What odds range are you using out of interest?
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@Andy-Donnelly Ok so raw data is 82.3% and -15pts from 113 selections if you exclude anything above 0.8
If you take out 0.5 that number is 84.31% -2pts from 102 selections.
If I filter that down to my own refined selections it's 94.74%, 40pts profit and 57 selections. since 08/12 when I started recording.
My entire range of refined data is currently 88.24%, 135pts, 255 selections. Majority of those points earned Dec-end Feb.
March has seen an 80.6% s/r, 15pts and 67 trades.
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@Richard-Latimer If you have the data, take a look and see what 0.8 away pts does in your data set.
0.8 isn’t as random as it might first appear. Using similar to logic that you were referring to, 0.8 points is the most points a team could get whilst winning just one in every five matches (or 2 in every 10).
Example to get 8 pts in ten games, the max wins you could get to achieve this total is 2. Clearly if you got 9 pts you could win 3.
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I also have an idea for a similar strat which is more abstract in that it doesn't look at wins or losses. Just can the home team score on a consistent basis (percentages, not averages which can be skewed) and do the away team generally score less than 2 (again percentages, not averages).
Only just started looking and it may go nowhere but I think the concept is interesting.
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
I'm not quite sure why but I've found away averages of 0.5, 1 and 1.6 to be awful.
In isolation it would seem a weird thing to exclude but points totals put together exact number of wins, draws and losses or at least give 2 or 3 possibilities.
Similarly as I've mentioned before home average points also appear to have their dodgy numbers.
2.1, 2.5, 2.6 alll terrible so far. 2.7 is on the fence.
how many games are you getting for those point ranges? the 2.5+ may be something to look at (just looking at numbers individually is too backfitty for me why would 2.1 be bad but 2.0 and 2.2 are fine?)
@Martin I understand what you mean after my last system ended in a complicated mess and of course I don't have enough data to categorically rule things out for good yet but the results are remarkably consistent so far.
My scope is only 10 games so the combinations are much more limited.
2.1 either means 7 wins and 3 losses or 6 wins and 3 draws so I take it as more that than anything else.
To get to 2pts the minimum number of wins I can get is 5. From a very small sample that also doesn't seem to be enough.
2.2 where it's 6 wins and 4 draws also poor.
Everything else must have a minimum of 7 wins and less than 3 losses so it's a way to explain that bit.
The 2.5 and 2.6 is a minimum of 8 wins so it appears to be a question of what goes up must come down. The numbers are too high and I haven't wavered on this finding.
The sweet spot.
What isn't quite so easy to explain is when you get to 2.8 and 3 (10 wins) the results improve dramatically.
Also not so easy to explain is the away average red flags I have but while it keeps being relevant I will continue to red flag them and see where it ends up.
The main difference from my failed project of before is it will be easy see exactly how things develop and throw things back into the mix as and when required.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
I'm not quite sure why but I've found away averages of 0.5, 1 and 1.6 to be awful.
In isolation it would seem a weird thing to exclude but points totals put together exact number of wins, draws and losses or at least give 2 or 3 possibilities.
Similarly as I've mentioned before home average points also appear to have their dodgy numbers.
2.1, 2.5, 2.6 alll terrible so far. 2.7 is on the fence.
how many games are you getting for those point ranges? the 2.5+ may be something to look at (just looking at numbers individually is too backfitty for me why would 2.1 be bad but 2.0 and 2.2 are fine?)
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Another thing I've found that affects the p/l column is when home team lost last and away team won last.
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I've also found a winning steak of 6+ is one to avoid for away teams.
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I'm not quite sure why but I've found away averages of 0.5, 1 and 1.6 to be awful.
In isolation it would seem a weird thing to exclude but points totals put together exact number of wins, draws and losses or at least give 2 or 3 possibilities.
Similarly as I've mentioned before home average points also appear to have their dodgy numbers.
2.1, 2.5, 2.6 alll terrible so far. 2.7 is on the fence.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Andy-Donnelly interesting! I have tried 1.5pts but that hasn't had much success
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Definitely think there is something in restricting selections with good away teams. After all, the point is to lay the away team
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@Martin Just watched your video on the lay away testing you are doing.
As it happens I’ve been testing with an eye on away point totals as well (since October last year).
Im finding that restricting to 0.8 pts on the away teams has had the best success so far. That would significantly reduce selections but still averages around 60-ish a month.
Also looking at a slightly more complicated sliding scale, whereby the better the home team pts, the more average away pts allowed
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@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin it's just good to see that what you're working on is closely mirroring mine.
I should be pleased because I'm around -2pts in March.
Definitely a tricky patch.
If you think -2pts is a tricky patch you must have very good strategies!
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@Martin it's just good to see that what you're working on is closely mirroring mine.
I should be pleased because I'm around -2pts in March.
Definitely a tricky patch.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer about -6.5pts this month. All about getting data at this point for me so nothing will change for a while.
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@Martin How has yours been going for March so far? Mine has hit a real sticky patch. I'm really trying not to make any knee jerk reactions
Strangely enough I'm starting to see a few patterns to improve the home lay hugely although still really early days.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0
