Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Looking back through the summer months it looks like Brazil has been the main culprit with the Lay Under 1.5. Brazil Serie B has been shocking this year for goals.
I know the strat hasn't had many picks especially last month, but seems to be getting a few more now, I think (hope) it will pick up as the winter leagues come back. Fingers crossed anyhow
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@dave-tancock Lay away was about +30 points last month so its not a complete disaster and there are always going to be fairly wild swings of variance with this kind of strategy - back-testing will give us the extra confidence (or not) when it arrives
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@dave-tancock yeah under 1.5 had 3 bad months so it's one I would put on hold
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It might just be me but lay away seems to be struggling this month (30 points down) and under 1.5 lays has been struggling for a few months now. Hopefully it’s just a bad run and will improve shortly though.
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@Martin Hi Martin am I right I'm thinking it's not laying the away team it's laying the 0-1 score line because the odds for a lay are generally quite high?
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Hi Martin on the set & forget Lay Away 1.0
Is it Lay the away team or Lay 1.0 away?
Let the bet RunRules: Lay the away team between odds 2.48-5.8
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@Andy-Donnelly yes will be good to test all of the individual filters like that!
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@Martin Yeh good point on back testing.
It definitely has struggled in recent months but there could be some minor tweaks that could kick it back into action.
Another thing to test in back testing is filtering away shots on goal to be 9 or above. Seems to make a big difference in this years data but worried I may be back fitting
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@Andy-Donnelly I'll do a deepdive when we get the backtesting as will be very easy to see which leagues work.
Avoid any you don't like if live trading, that strategy has struggled past couple of months.
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Anyone had a look at league filtering recently on Tomasz U1.5? Brazil Serie B is by far the worst performing league this year for me so considering ditching that league.
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@Fearghal-Downes thanks mate!
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@Martin It only gives you the leagues that the favourite wins in most at odds under 1.7. Combining these leagues with the "lay away 1.0" filter could be a way to maximize wins. Maybe.. I'll try it out and see how it goes. Will let you know
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@Arran-Shackell yeah will get plenty of days like that straight laying odds against, nature of the beast!
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lay away had a bit of an overnight hammering
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@Fearghal-Downes hard to say as this doesn't cover selections does it but all matches
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I used a tool to see which leagues the favorite wins most in at odds from 1.01 to 1.7 over the last 2 seasons. (this is the lay away 1.0 method in reverse)
In the image are the leagues that it gave me.
Is it a good idea to select ONLY these leagues in the lay away 1.0 method?
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@Alex-Rendell hi Alex, yes I've been following it since January it took a while to recover actually. But yes it's a set and forget and it's still in the filters...
