Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Nathan-Cooke inadvertently testing an LTD which will probably become a back the draw!
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Anyone have a 'back the draw' filter they've been running?
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@Chris-King Yeh i do use a spreadsheet but its the formula side of things and deciding what i need to track. Looking at other peoples they look very advanced in comparison but probably are not as fancy as they look.
I've got win/loss/profit per trade/ total as far back as August last year but realising i need goal times as well as results. I think the goal times will make a big difference, which i will go back and fill when i can. My maths is decent so can generally work out how many wins i need at a price range and can track if that's happening etc. But having it all done for me would certainly save time, i know excel can its just deciding what data i need 1st.
Hopefully all the hard yards will bring the rewards long term.
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@Fraser-cord About spreadsheets, i had ZERO experience on spreadsheets until almost a year after i started learning to trade. I realised that tracking my trading was an essential (for me) factor if i wanted to make a success out of it.
Since i started tracking using spread sheets my trading has improved in so many aspects, beyond what i could have imagined. From discipline, trading volume, planning a days trading, odds ranges and how they relate to strike rates, bankroll management and more. Everything i do goes though a spreadsheet.
The most valuable thing that’s come out of doing it is it’s allowed me to learn how to test, and test everything, effectively trading without any financial risk or stress, seeing how a strategy develops and if it’s profitable, being able to trade it with confidence as i’ve practised and experienced everything about it in testing and can implement the process almost robotically.
As i said i knew nothing about them but the pro’s said it was vital so had to learn to get better. I’ve had no official training and mine are by no means advanced but they do what i need them to and if i need to add anything to them i just research how.
I’ve copied other’s, taken bits i needed, created my own from them and used formulas I’ve found on other’s and in free online tutorials. They can also be far more basic than mine are and still be as effective.
Copy one of mine if you want. You can obviously customise it your needs.I highly recommend using the online trading tools/calculators linked in the super trader thread when learning/testing/tracking. These have been vital in my improvement and understanding
http://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/post/140917
It’s taken time and a bit or hard work and learning but it’s changed everything i do in trading for the better
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@Fraser-cord I think 3.35 would be good value. All the ones that win are though!
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@Terry-Heller Yeh I wasn't sure how many games in they were when posting. But say it was more than 10 games in, that would be a value bet?
I tracked the Finnish league last summer and there was usually plenty of goals.
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@Fraser-cord On the Finland game it doesnt come up on my filter as the league doesnt have enough matches played yet. I have added it to my watch list though. 3.4 is available and 3.6 was the last price matched.
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@Terry-Heller I've just had a play with the filters like you suggested as a baseline. The FHG I'm fine with, just wanted to check the O1.5FHG.
I went for O1.5 FHG 40% as a baseline, and using your prices as a guide I picked O2.5 betfair odds to find games then check the O1.5 FHG prices manually?
Most are matching your examples, but 1 standing out in Finland, AC Oulu vs VPS, saying over 1.5 FHG 67%, and back odds are 3.35 for FH O1.5.
I presume that's real value? (need to check status of Finnish league 1st, just using as an example) -
@Terry-Heller Extremely helpful, thanks. Il need to get my spreadsheets sorted and organised like this. Both yourself and @Chris-King have put me to shame. Mine are exactly like my work desk, total chaos, but i understand whats going on.
Will aim to get mine collated so I can share too, currently I think FHG, SHG and O1.5 is my focus, so need to start recording goal times to make this really work properly.
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If you want to pick the bones out of the data i have collected so far this is the spreadsheet as it stands so far
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JhhPssnU8ZF0uY-e3soXmcOcbUk_Kcb5GbEkJWT0SEg/edit?usp=sharing
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@Fraser-cord The criteria I find most useful is Overall / HT O 0.5/ Odds/ equal 1.01 or greater
So say for example that value is 1.25 and the Betfair odds are pretty much the same I dont bet that game.
If the stats value was 1.11 then i would be happy to bet at 1.22 for 1 fhg.Early prices for the games today that I didnt bet on for O1.5 FHG were
Oss 2.28
Den Haag 2.32
Willem 11 2.2
Early price
Deinze 2.5
Wisla 3.15the two Israeli games I missed KO so didnt get to record those prices
Does that help? -
@Terry-Heller ok cool, thanks. What sort of criteria do you have in your filters? And roughly what price, im guessing above 2.0?
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@Fraser-cord You might look at 1.5 FHG as so far I have them at 45% over 200 games.
eg Todays picks were:
Yehuda Israel 3 FHG
Kfar Saba Israel 3 FHG
Willem 11 Neth NO BET NO VALUE 0 FHG
Deinze Belgium 2 FHG
Oss Neth NO BET NO VALUE 1 FHG
Den Haag Neth NO BET NO VALUE 2 FHG
Wisla Poland 2 FHGOnly the last one had a goal before 15 mins though
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@Terry-Heller Thanks, thats very helpful. So in theory if I'm going unmatched on one third of my trades at the time of 1st goal, cant imagine they will all still only have 1 goal by 70 mins to get matched again, and all will have a 2nd between 70 and FT.
Was just an idea, i think FHG and O1.5 can definitely be done together, but maybe not at the prices I like, more research required I think.
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@Fraser-cord On the games I select for FHG my records have 34% with a goal before 15 minutes
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@Craig-vaulks Makes sense. I use a slight adaptation of Tomasz U1.5 lays for my O1.5 trades and don't trade above 3.0 lay odds. My theory, as many of these games are low scoring, there is rarely an early goal. Will often get odds below 3.0 at K/O but if not I try and match in play (usually matched close to 10 mins in.)
However with the FHG selections there tend to be more early goals so this may not work for O1.5, could miss a lot of winners. I'm starting to record goal times to help get a balance.
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@Fraser-cord yeah they are similar odds at kick off, slightly lower odds for over 1.5 goals but as you say having filters that find fhg's will obviously increase the chances over 1.5 goals landing. I just need to finish off adding a few more results to my spreadsheet then I will try testing both markets with slightly smaller stakes see how it works out.
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@Craig-vaulks I think that makes sense, If the data shows profit. I'm currently looking at a mix of 1st half strats and many appear to show that O1.5 hits regularly. The odd case where no FHG but O1.5 or FHG but not 1.5. But in general if you get odds of 1.5, just need to hit 2 out of 3.
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@Craig-vaulks hmm I'd go with both if using sensible stakes, they make profit so why not.