Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Andy-Donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Gavin-Rumsey
Yeh if anyone is blindly trading all selections that come up, I’d definitely advise not to do that on this strategy particularly at this point in the season as a lot of selections have played very few games.
In my experience, just by looking at league table positions, recent form and odds you can easily cut out some selections particularly those that have home team less than 2.25 pts
God I hope no one blindly trades anything! These aren't tips.
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I'm not sure. Maybe it's just the pure fact that I'm new here (but I've been trying what i term 'lab work' in betfair for 20 years') I can stay a course. I'm just a little wary when I have a down turn as I've had my soul crushed so many times in strategy work.
Scars of the past
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@Alex-Rendell Ahh, ok. Ive just compared the filters and Ive made adjustments to mine.
Home points per game >= 2.25
Betfair away odds >< 2.48 and 5.8I wouldnt have come up with these myself I think I just followed a conversation discussing this strategy then looked at the spreadsheet to confirm what was being said. And I dont back an away fav, thats just my rule
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@Gavin-Rumsey
Yeh if anyone is blindly trading all selections that come up, I’d definitely advise not to do that on this strategy particularly at this point in the season as a lot of selections have played very few games.
In my experience, just by looking at league table positions, recent form and odds you can easily cut out some selections particularly those that have home team less than 2.25 pts
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Not a great weekend indeed but it started ok which helped keep losses down a tad
There was a lot of English lower league selections and many with the bare minimum played to show up.
Once there is more data some league filtering might cut out the lower leagues (not that I'm sure they are down overall).
Hopefully things settle as more games are played and form is picked up with a bit more certaintity behind it
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@Tony-Hastie around 50% must’ve lost on Saturday alone..? Still well up over the last few months though
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Lay away has won 15 out of the last 17 for me. I didnt take one last night because away team was favourite but thats the best run its had since I started doing it...
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill it’s had another rough weekend but it can recover this surprisingly quickly! Keep the faith or reduce your stakes if it’s causing you stress.
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill not sure if this is the same one I follow as I missed yesterday due to family birthdays but it's been doing fine for me, that said I'm still testing and want a year of data before looking at leagues etc.
I think it sounds like you should not be doing it as you don't have confidence in it, am I right about that?
Would you like help with anything?
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Must say Lay away is haemorrhaging money now
The mental aspect of it is so difficult. I meSm if the selections are on point then there shouldn't be any problem in the long term I suppose
Set and forget is so attractive but it may be time to go back to the trading LTD for a while
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill cheers I'll keep avoiding international breaks then!
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@Alex-Rendell Absolutely mate!
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@John-Malloy Hi mate was looking at your filter and am having a little dabble myself and was wondering have you tracked what percentage of games actually finish with both teams scoring?
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill Lay away had a rough start to September for me personally; I was about 18 points down at one stage but it has since recovered to about break even (possibly +1 or 2!) - just goes to show how volatile this strategy can be but the long-term results don't lie. Roll on back-testing!
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill how was the international break with it? I took a break from football during international break
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Mate ignore me.
A ) it was Lay the Away
B ) It's not actually that bad just had a bad few days I was looking at something else.
Too many late nights mate!!
For your interest I've done 129 bets since I started 103 wins
ROI 4.32
Strike rate 79.84
AV Odds of 4.25It's interesting to note its worst performance so far was during international breaks. But I'm only 129 bets in so it could be nothing
I've noted also quite a few losses have been red cards to the home team which is annoying. I should really go back and do the figures on that
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@Greg-Mitchell updates for midweek often happen at Tuesday lunchtimes due to it taking weekend games into the processing (Monday tends to be weekend fixtures round)