Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@John-Malloy Are you still following this strategy? Is it the "Martin Over 1.5 Set and Forget" one in the members filters? Going to start tracking the data myself for a few months if so.
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@Karl-Pick I don't think at any point I actually criticised anyone. And Im not expecting winners every single day. You jumped to two cinclusions there . The actual point I was making is that I was surprised it was being canned as Martin freely admitted he was barely checking the results. I was simply saying I find that quite surprising as he "thinks" its underperformed. Rather than recording the results.
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@Martin Yeh seems to be the opposite tho, if I’m reading it right it’s stating you don’t want home odds lower than 1.7.
Logically it doesn’t make sense to me, as an example there is one game on tonight Start v Asane in the Norwegian 2nd division. It’ qualifies on all points other than Start being 1.65 (at time of writing).
Having said the above I won’t be making changes to a strategy that is doing well at the moment, but another one to look at when back testing becomes available to see what impact it has had.
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@Andy-Donnelly can't say why they chose that but I imagine it is to do with not wanting short odds home teams
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Guys, for the lay away filter can someone remind me the logic of having the odds restriction on home team?
Just trying to work out why it’s needed as long as you have the odds restriction on the away because that’s what we’re actually laying.
I don’t want to change anything as it’s working nicely but just wanted to confirm for my own sanity really
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I also find odds play a part in my decision making with whether away team is higher in the league than home team.
If most other form lines are in home teams favour and odds are say 3.0 then I’m still likely to trade the selection even if away team higher in the league. When it starts going to 4.0 and above I’ll definitely leave it.
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@Martin with the league position I like to see a clear gap between the teams….ideally 4/5 positions min depending on the size of the league.If the teams are next to each other I tend not to trade as I feel they are both evenly matched and tend too cancel each other out.
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@Martin I can only really speak about this one Martin as this is only set and forget strategy I look at each match.I suppose it’s a more of a “trading” approach than a true set and forget.
I have used the league position criteria to my ltd trading and although I haven’t got any concrete records it makes me more confident in a trade. -
@Andy-Donnelly Hi Andy I have been doing something similar with the lay away.My filter is set to 2.3 average points and am looking at each match (ie non favourite,min/max odds and league position). It’s been going well so far and am in profit by 14 pts since the middle of July.
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@joshua-armstrong what leagues have hit you this month? testing will give you the best answer to be honest, hard for me to say blind if it will work or not.
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@joshua-armstrong how has it been working so far?
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Thought I’d share an update on how the lay away strategy is working for me now that I’m 4 weeks in.
Total trades - 140
Total winning trades - 104
SR - 74%
P/L - + £10 (using £10 stakes)Summary, it might sound like poor profit but considering this includes a terrible weekend a few weeks back, quite happy with the bounce back.
I have been looking at whether restricting selections to have a home pts total of 2.25 or better improves things and across this albeit small sample size it does look promising:
Total trades (2.25 home pts or better) - 81
Total winning trades - 63
SR - 77%
P/L - +£135Having said the above in recent weeks I have seen a lot of promising trades that would get left behind if filtering out those that at lower than 2.25. So now currently operating using the below parameters.
2-2.24 = Will do extra due diligence prior to placing the trade. If any red flags appear in recent form of home or away team and/or if league position of away team is significantly higher than home team, will not trade.
2.25+ = Will do some due diligence but will generally trade providing within odds range.
The above approach seems to be working nicely so far. Interested to hear feedback on anyone who has been running this for a lot longer than me.