Set & Forget Football Strategies
-
@tomasz-lunarzewski so this is backing unders? I will add to the sheet
-
@tomasz-lunarzewski This looks really interesting Tomasz, I'll be keeping an eye on this in Martins testing for sure
-
@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@tomasz-lunarzewski thanks for sharing what's the P&L and how long has it been tested?
Well. I've just started doing it a month ago. I've put tiny stakes now because there is more fun testing it that way. I'm impressed to be honest mate. You'll get only a few games there but you need to win 3 in 10 to be in tiny profit, so it may work nicely as well. Many of them games go over 1.5 if you do it the other way you probably will get a nice profit because the odds are brilliant.
-
@svajunas-bernotas-0 said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
Good bunch of strategies to test, thank you all for sharing them. With the ELO is there a way to get ELO difference on the filter?
0_1645459137951_filter-settings (5).txt
Copy this into your filters and edit as you see fit, at the moment it filters odds under 2.7 on fav and ELO where away team is 10-30pts better.
Instructions here
-
Good bunch of strategies to test, thank you all for sharing them. With the ELO is there a way to get ELO difference on the filter?
-
@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
Weekly Update (£10 stakes used to test) all results include comm:
Unders Galore: 83 Selections +£31.04
Matt's Under 2.5 goals: 341 Selections +£297.51
First Half Goal: 101 Selections -£2.32
Wayne's First Half Goal: 33 Selections -£37.85
Lay the Draw at Kick-Off: 56 Selections -£238.2
Martin's Over 1.5 Goals: 34 Selections +£42.70
Tomasz's Over 1.5 Goals: 20 Selections -£0.95
Lee's Over 2.5 Goals: 40 Selections -£133.64
Lee's First Half Lay The Draw: 40 Selections -£76.6
ELO Backs: 12 Selections -£6.80
ELO Lays: 12 Selections +£72.20Constantly Updated Sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=701074414
matts unders look good just watching atm looks good
-
@tomasz-lunarzewski thanks for sharing what's the P&L and how long has it been tested?
-
@svajunas-bernotas asked for my under 1.5 strategy. Here it is mate.
-
-
Weekly Update 1 (£10 stakes used to test) all results include comm:
Unders Galore: 83 Selections +£31.04
Matt's Under 2.5 goals: 341 Selections +£297.51
First Half Goal: 101 Selections -£2.32
Wayne's First Half Goal: 33 Selections -£37.85
Lay the Draw at Kick-Off: 56 Selections -£238.2
Martin's Over 1.5 Goals: 34 Selections +£42.70
Tomasz's Over 1.5 Goals: 20 Selections -£0.95
Lee's Over 2.5 Goals: 40 Selections -£133.64
Lee's First Half Lay The Draw: 40 Selections -£76.6
ELO Backs: 12 Selections -£6.80
ELO Lays: 12 Selections +£72.20Constantly Updated Sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=701074414
-
fantastic work going on here guys. Love it!
-
@mathew-gates Hi Martin drop Richard a message mate. he used these for a long long time and will be able to share his experience with you. He will be able to share his thoughts and findings with these and similar system to what your looking at.
-
@martin thats very interesting, defo looks like ELO is a good thing that can pick the team to lay, not check to see if it works backing the winner, but looks profitable laying the one with less scores, but I am just looking on about a months data
-
@mathew-gates
Me and @wayne-ironside have been working on an ELO strategy, I need to pull together all of the results properly but there seems to be a trend that if the away team has +10 ELO and the odds on the home team are 2.1 or below then laying the away team is very profitable. It is counterintuitive but my theory is that the market overcompensates for the away teams ELO. So a lot of it seems to depend on the ELO difference as well with 10-30 being very profitable for taking the home team when the away team was stronger, except when the home team was prices between 2.1-2.5. If odds are between 2.1-2.5 it was actually very profitable to back the away team (or lay home although not as profitable).
I really need to do a proper write up on this and collate our two sets of data as we have three months worth between us.
-
Also looking at laying 0.5 goals if the double chance of 12 is under 1.25 odds.
Thinking that if odds are low for double chance 12 then the market predicts a goal so should reduce the chance of 0-0
-
I have started to look at ELO ratings.
Basically using the idea that you take home ELO take away ELO and if it is positive or even better 50 or more then I lay the away team.
Very early days but seems ok so far.
Also laying the dog if the odds are above 10.0. Again very early days but starting ok.
Anyone else look at these and have a longer length results for similar?
