Set & Forget Football Strategies

Richard Latimer

I'm up to almost 400 lines of data now having completely excluded all matches with less than 10 h2h.

Almost 200 of these have hit at 88% with Ave odds 5.2 (max 11)

On the flip side almost all of these can be potentially opposed with a 59% s/r laying the home team at ave odds 2.5 (many many odds on with a few pushing the overall odds higher but coming in at way better than 59% obviously.

2 solid looking systems from one data set so far.

Martin

@Stephen-Knowles I would like more data on that one, hard as it doesn't get a lot of selections

Stephen Knowles

@Martin thanks for the reply sorry I'm new to this I started a very simple lay the draw strategy (relatively high strike rate) at the start of the year all going well, I guess I need to work on my mentality on the strategies that can potentially have more variables and consequently be more volatile?

Martin

@Stephen-Knowles high variance strategy went to 400 down to sub 100 and back up to 300 profit

Stephen Knowles

That was a disastrous lay over 3.5 day... 4 losses out of 5! Good job I'm just testing, only been doing it a week and its 9 points down.

Martin

@Trevor-H said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Trevor-H said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Martin Could you just clarify the 'Restrict to Going in Play' option. I thought it meant games that you couldn't trade in play on BF, but when I remove it, I see a lot of games that I think will be tradable in play, at least for match odds and overs.

Betfair change their intentions all the time so I wouldn't use this filter personally.

It does seem a bit flaky. When I switched it off just now, West Brom v So'ton appeared. Not exactly a pub team game.

Worth messaging @Adam about that one as that should be available.

Trevor H

@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Trevor-H said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Martin Could you just clarify the 'Restrict to Going in Play' option. I thought it meant games that you couldn't trade in play on BF, but when I remove it, I see a lot of games that I think will be tradable in play, at least for match odds and overs.

Betfair change their intentions all the time so I wouldn't use this filter personally.

It does seem a bit flaky. When I switched it off just now, West Brom v So'ton appeared. Not exactly a pub team game.

Richard Latimer

@Trevor-H said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Martin Could you just clarify the 'Restrict to Going in Play' option. I thought it meant games that you couldn't trade in play on BF, but when I remove it, I see a lot of games that I think will be tradable in play, at least for match odds and overs.

Betfair change their intentions all the time so I wouldn't use this filter personally.

Trevor H

@Martin Could you just clarify the 'Restrict to Going in Play' option. I thought it meant games that you couldn't trade in play on BF, but when I remove it, I see a lot of games that I think will be tradable in play, at least for match odds and overs.

Adam

Everywhere I've seen represents them as 2 halves of the same competition, literally "opening" and "closing".

There's an apertura and a clausura in each season, for example Liga MX is split into apertura and clausura, but the season is still 2023/24.

Some leagues have 3 stages, I forget which now.

Martin

@Trevor-H for me personally I use it and if the league doesn't work get rid but the data from one season is so limited if you split it.

Trevor H

@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Trevor-H yes and no the problem with those leagues is they count it as an overall table too, it's quite confusing!

Yes, but for our purposes, the overall isn't really relevant, is it? Would it be possible to treat as two competitions in the software?

Martin

@Trevor-H yes and no the problem with those leagues is they count it as an overall table too, it's quite confusing!

Trevor H

@Martin @Adam I only want to look at games in which both teams have played 8 games or more in the current season, but I think the software treats the Clausura in SA leagues an an extension of the Apertura, rather than a different competition (see pic, which says this fixture has a 19-game history even though I've restricted to current season and 8 games minimum). Is there a reason for this? They are effectively two separate competitions so far as form is concerned, aren't they?

Richard Latimer

@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Arran-Shackell +7pts

I'm still looking at this but found myself making too many tweaks even for me so I've gone back to the drawing board.

One thing I have found so far is that when there are less than 10 past h2h fixtures those results are massively in the negative for me. Since 08/12 to now and the ones I've looked at (still collecting a bit of h2h data manually as I didn't add it to filter initially) it is -52pts when fewer than 10 games played between both sides.