Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Adam-Jones makes sense, I haven't tried it but should help the strike rate. Only thing is average profit on the winners would be lower.
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@Martin I realise this is a set and forget thread but I’m curious. Has anyone tried trading the Tomasz Under 1.5 Goals - Lays selections? Green up after 1 goal and take the loss on 70 mins if no goal? Very quick look back over the result’s spreadsheet, the matches ending in a loss due to a single goal would be profitable and those ending in a loss because of a 0-0 result would be less of a loss.
New to this so I may well be way off but thought I’d ask.
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@Martin Sorry, I thought you meant the switch from winter leagues to summer, but I think you meant the games played at the tail end of the season, where motivation, or lack of it, distorts form. I have seen on one stats site a filter whereby you can exclude games from the final 10 or 20% of the season. (Obviously the number of games varies according to how many rounds there are in each league.) That might be a useful filter to have here, if it can be done.
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@Martin You mentioned in another thread that a lot of people got stung by the Euro leagues ending. Could you clarify that a little, please? (I'm thinking that basically stats are stats, qualifiers are qualifiers, and a filter isn't going to care which league it's filtering.) Cheers.
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Though I’d let everyone know that I lJust noticed that with over 3.5 lays, if I removed the games with odds under 2.00, the strike rate jumps from 64%-71%. It’s early days for now but a tweak I may consider in the future, when I have more data.
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Just watched Ryans LTD video from last week and had a look in the members filter at it.
The rules in the members filter bear no resemblance to what Ryan was saying. EG home team over 70% score first, filter says 55%, away team 70%, no mention in filter, etc, Has this been updated, which one is current and cant find any results for this strategy, not on spreadsheet. Have not used this strategy myself yet, just need clarification please, Thanks -
@dave-tancock international break, should be some after it's finished
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I’ve not seen a game flagged by over 3.5 lays or Tomas under 1.5 lays in about 2 weeks. Just wondering if this is the same for everyone else?
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Evening all
Hope everyone had a good weekend - trading and the rest of it!
I'm just getting into some of these set and forget. Just wondering if I'm looking at this all wrong so excuse if this is a silly question...
On the Tomasz lay U1.5 I was looking at the filters and it is looking for high % of games going under 1.5 and 2.5. Is this because it is looking at games/teams where there has been a lack of goals and then assuming the odds will be favourable and there is a likelyhood of goals coming as teams will likely come back towards the norm/average? So a kind of 'contra' strategy?
Or... have aread the filter all wring.
@Martin - the lay away filter has been on fire this weekend
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin thanks for the advice. I’ll leave the over 1.5 for now. With Tomasz lays strategy, are we still using through the summer leagues?
HI Martin i have tightened up the filter selections yesterday by looking only trading if 80% of matches have over 1.5 goals and the h2h the same percentage. Will keep an eye on if this improves the strategy . Will update at the end of the month
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Tony-Hastie it's not a bad strategy so I wouldn't flip it but you could test that.
5 games today, 5 wins...not flip(ping) testing that
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@dave-tancock yeah they don't get scrapped just will save it and run through backtesting when it arrives
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@Martin maybe it’s better in the winter leagues but was thrown off this year due to the World Cup. Might be worth restarting when premier league restarts?
