Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Good bunch of strategies to test, thank you all for sharing them. With the ELO is there a way to get ELO difference on the filter?
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@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
Weekly Update (£10 stakes used to test) all results include comm:
Unders Galore: 83 Selections +£31.04
Matt's Under 2.5 goals: 341 Selections +£297.51
First Half Goal: 101 Selections -£2.32
Wayne's First Half Goal: 33 Selections -£37.85
Lay the Draw at Kick-Off: 56 Selections -£238.2
Martin's Over 1.5 Goals: 34 Selections +£42.70
Tomasz's Over 1.5 Goals: 20 Selections -£0.95
Lee's Over 2.5 Goals: 40 Selections -£133.64
Lee's First Half Lay The Draw: 40 Selections -£76.6
ELO Backs: 12 Selections -£6.80
ELO Lays: 12 Selections +£72.20Constantly Updated Sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=701074414
matts unders look good just watching atm looks good
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@tomasz-lunarzewski thanks for sharing what's the P&L and how long has it been tested?
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@svajunas-bernotas asked for my under 1.5 strategy. Here it is mate.
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Weekly Update 1 (£10 stakes used to test) all results include comm:
Unders Galore: 83 Selections +£31.04
Matt's Under 2.5 goals: 341 Selections +£297.51
First Half Goal: 101 Selections -£2.32
Wayne's First Half Goal: 33 Selections -£37.85
Lay the Draw at Kick-Off: 56 Selections -£238.2
Martin's Over 1.5 Goals: 34 Selections +£42.70
Tomasz's Over 1.5 Goals: 20 Selections -£0.95
Lee's Over 2.5 Goals: 40 Selections -£133.64
Lee's First Half Lay The Draw: 40 Selections -£76.6
ELO Backs: 12 Selections -£6.80
ELO Lays: 12 Selections +£72.20Constantly Updated Sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=701074414
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fantastic work going on here guys. Love it!
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@mathew-gates Hi Martin drop Richard a message mate. he used these for a long long time and will be able to share his experience with you. He will be able to share his thoughts and findings with these and similar system to what your looking at.
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@martin thats very interesting, defo looks like ELO is a good thing that can pick the team to lay, not check to see if it works backing the winner, but looks profitable laying the one with less scores, but I am just looking on about a months data
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@mathew-gates
Me and @wayne-ironside have been working on an ELO strategy, I need to pull together all of the results properly but there seems to be a trend that if the away team has +10 ELO and the odds on the home team are 2.1 or below then laying the away team is very profitable. It is counterintuitive but my theory is that the market overcompensates for the away teams ELO. So a lot of it seems to depend on the ELO difference as well with 10-30 being very profitable for taking the home team when the away team was stronger, except when the home team was prices between 2.1-2.5. If odds are between 2.1-2.5 it was actually very profitable to back the away team (or lay home although not as profitable).
I really need to do a proper write up on this and collate our two sets of data as we have three months worth between us.
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Also looking at laying 0.5 goals if the double chance of 12 is under 1.25 odds.
Thinking that if odds are low for double chance 12 then the market predicts a goal so should reduce the chance of 0-0
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I have started to look at ELO ratings.
Basically using the idea that you take home ELO take away ELO and if it is positive or even better 50 or more then I lay the away team.
Very early days but seems ok so far.
Also laying the dog if the odds are above 10.0. Again very early days but starting ok.
Anyone else look at these and have a longer length results for similar?
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@dan-peacey said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
LTD V2 LTD V3 LTD G LTD Hybrid
Trades 663 Trades 566 Trades 866 Trades 200
W 520 W 430 W 653 W 152
SR 78.43 SR 75.97 SR 75.40 SR 76.00
P/L £350.37 P/L £92.36 P/L £284.83 P/L £72.95
Points111.94 Points 29.51 Points 91.00 Points 23.31As you can see my V2 looks the best one, however for so long its been between that and my LTD G one I,ve been flip flopping. The bad results mainly came from the LTD G recently. I may abandon V3 at the end of the month. The hybrid one is a combo between V2 and G, so early days for that. Looks like I will be using V2 for the foreseeable as its got a big advantage over LTD G.
Amazing will add V2 to the main list today
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LTD V2 LTD V3 LTD G LTD Hybrid
Trades 663 Trades 566 Trades 866 Trades 200
W 520 W 430 W 653 W 152
SR 78.43 SR 75.97 SR 75.40 SR 76.00
P/L £350.37 P/L £92.36 P/L £284.83 P/L £72.95
Points111.94 Points 29.51 Points 91.00 Points 23.31As you can see my V2 looks the best one, however for so long its been between that and my LTD G one I,ve been flip flopping. The bad results mainly came from the LTD G recently. I may abandon V3 at the end of the month. The hybrid one is a combo between V2 and G, so early days for that. Looks like I will be using V2 for the foreseeable as its got a big advantage over LTD G.
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@dan-peacey said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
My next LTD trade is a Colombian match Dep. Pasto v Dep Cali which kicks off at 23:10
That was a winner 2-0 to Dep Pasto
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@dan-peacey said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
Sorry for not contributing sooner guys, I tested positive for Covid on Monday and am self isolating currently. I have several filters for LTD which im testing. All filters are giving profits and a strike rate of 75%+. What I do is see which of my filters is the most profitable on a given day and then pick the matches on that filter. For me currently 2 filters are quite close together so I flip flop between them. After a very good month in January securing around 20% profit, I am now -2.5% down this month. More often than not some matches appear on more than 1 of my filters which is good.
I'm testing one of your LTD's the V2 one I think, had a rough week but very early days, it's on the sheet as LTD@KO
