Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@chris-osborne i watched a you tube vid earlier called lay the court and he has a months worth of data not a huge amount but he was profitable laying both at 1.4 or 1.5 and the odds seem to best around average 2.2 or below, so could be something that can set up on a filter.
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@liam-willis don’t know never tried it I’ll have a look.
Best set and forget strategy for tennis would be lay first set winner at start of second and exit at the end of the second there are risks involved however
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i know this thread is for football but just throwing an idea out here, would the magic number strategy work on tennis and if so there could be an a good set and forget strat there with plenty of trading opportunities especially during quiet football periods.
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@Martin are there any threads regarding the ELO filter your testing as to the approach?
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@jamie-clements said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@martin ELO Back Home/Lay Away: 22 Selections, +£29/+£123 what are you looking for in the stats please ive been looking at a100 points difference thanks
Here is the import file so you can have it!
0_1648271545813_filter-settings (1).txt -
@martin ELO Back Home/Lay Away: 22 Selections, +£29/+£123 what are you looking for in the stats please ive been looking at a100 points differance thanks
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Ignore I was having a very senior moment and not scrolling up
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I did that but it’s not there
Profitable Member Filters
Going for a Late Goal! - Any Scoreline
Late Goal Split Stake (When drawing)
Lay the Draw at HT/Second Half
Lay the Draw at Kick-Off (Ryan's Betgreen)
Over 1.5 goals (Ryan's Split Stake)
Over 2.5 goals filter (Frode's Adapted)
Second Half Goal (Gary's SHG)
The BTC First Half Goal Strategy (Frode's Adapted)
These are all I have -
@david-baker-0 said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
Hi can’t seem to see it on my filter.Am I doing something wrong?
Click on My saved files, then click the drop down menu for profitable members filters. Any of the ones added should appear here on this list.
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Hi can’t seem to see it on my filter.Am I doing something wrong?
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Right I went through the data on this unders strategy just looking at leagues and not odds.
The unprofitable leagues that stood out for me which had a good amount of data were as follows:
Austrian Bundesliga
Dutch Eerste League
A League
Spain La Liga 2
England League 2
Romania Liga 1
Portugal Liga 2
France National
Bulgarian Parva
Turkish Super leagueWith these league removed is 1144.48 over 921 games and 58% strike rate average odds of 1.98
What I am now doing is tracking these unprofitable leagues on over 2.5gls strategy as they were all very unprofitable so may be an angle there.
Only very small amount of data at the moment but on 177 games laying the under 2.5 gls is 426 profit to 10 pound stakes with 62% strike rate with average lay odds of 1.97. I used lay as this means I didn't have to convert the odds already given on the spreadsheet.
I will now monitor both and update if anyone so wishes.
I hope I haven't repeated too much of what has already been said as I haven't read everything on this thread.
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@hayden-austin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
Sorry i wasn’t really clear, i calculated the win rate as 55% and so you’re only winning just over half the bets you take. so surely if the mean average odds taken over the 1000 trades were 1.96 which i calculated (which is just below evens), then you would not get a sustainable profit over time no? Probably doesn’t make sense cause i haven’t quite grasped all of this yet as i’m new to this:)
Check the probability chart, well an average odds of 1.81ish would break even so 1.96 is huge value in the case of a 55% strike rate.
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Sorry i wasn’t really clear, i calculated the win rate as 55% and so you’re only winning just over half the bets you take. so surely if the mean average odds taken over the 1000 trades were 1.96 which i calculated (which is just below evens), then you would not get a sustainable profit over time no? Probably doesn’t make sense cause i haven’t quite grasped all of this yet as i’m new to this:)
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@hayden-austin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@Martin Surely long term even matts under 2.5 set and forget won't work because I calculated the win rate using the spreadsheet and it only had a 55% win rate and the average odds are 1.96 (below evens) over the 1087 selections?
67pts up over 1000 selections is phenomenal, not sure what you mean? sure we don't know 100% that past performance will equal future performance, it's still being tested.
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55% is better than 1.96
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@hayden-austin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@Martin Surely long term even matts under 2.5 set and forget won't work because I calculated the win rate using the spreadsheet and it only had a 55% win rate and the average odds are 1.96 (below evens) over the 1087 selections?
might be wrong but i think it is clac based on using a point
say 1000 games
win 55% = 550 games win 0.94 (2% commission) = +517 points
Lose 45% = 450 games lose -1 = 450 Points+517 - 450 = + 67 Points ROI 6.7%
