Set & Forget Football Strategies

Martin

@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

I said when I got 300 trades in I'd divulge what I've been doing and now is the time. Going through a little bit of a sticky patch but July still just about up.

So this is a home lay system:

Raw data is 435 strong, 75% s/r, average odds 4.1 and profit almost 79pts. Overall yield from that is 5.76%

My filter is this:

Although if home team has a higher points total than away I remove those games and don't keep the records anymore.

But the raw data isn't where I stop. Yes I have made sure things are way less complicated than previous and I have avoided jumping down the rabbit hole. That said there are a few tweaks I make to the raw data as follows:

These tweaks do the following:

Trades 300
Wins 255
s/r 85%
Total profit 156pts (to 1pt level staking)
Ave odds 4.4
Yield 15.3%

That's it for now but just to finish off by saying I have a lay in of New England at present.

156pts profit wow! Good work

Richard Latimer

Also on the tweaks to filter I will clarify that while I combine some stats with one other I will never combine more than 2 after the last system and all the pitfalls I uncovered.

Richard Latimer

I said when I got 300 trades in I'd divulge what I've been doing and now is the time. Going through a little bit of a sticky patch but July still just about up.

So this is a home lay system:

Raw data is 435 strong, 75% s/r, average odds 4.1 and profit almost 79pts. Overall yield from that is 5.76%

My filter is this:

Although if home team has a higher points total than away I remove those games and don't keep the records anymore.

But the raw data isn't where I stop. Yes I have made sure things are way less complicated than previous and I have avoided jumping down the rabbit hole. That said there are a few tweaks I make to the raw data as follows:

These tweaks do the following:

Trades 300
Wins 255
s/r 85%
Total profit 156pts (to 1pt level staking)
Ave odds 4.4
Yield 15.3%

That's it for now but just to finish off by saying I have a lay in of New England at present.

Martin

@Terry-Cooke yes they work better as Back Unders since Covid got back to normal, not many selections per year which is a problem for it

Terry Cooke

@Martin Are you not tracking the results for Tomasz Under 1.5 Goals Lays anymore?

ross love

@Martin Nice one, thanks mate.

Martin

@ross-love no but these are the results since Dec 26th 2023 when I created it: Screenshot (549).png

ross love

@Martin Is there at results tracker for that anywhere Martin?

Martin

Added Back Home Team at short odds to OP

ross love

@Martin Nice one, thanks Martin.

Martin

@ross-love yep 3.7-5.5 odds

ross love

@Martin Thanks mate, so that is the filter for the results that have been doing well on the results sheet? Also, are there any rules you have on entries mate, i.e odds?

Martin

@ross-love I use 2.0 but it has had a bad run of late, avoid 1.0 like the plague it's not at all optimised

ross love

Looking at the tracker, the lay away strategy has performed well over a long period of time. Are people trading this? If not, which of the 2.0 and 3.0 versions are people trading?

Martin

Added lay and back home strategies from my video this week in the opening post.

Martin

@Joseph-Henderson yes end of season as expected has caused a bad month best avoided other than summer leagues now

Matt Wood

@Joseph-Henderson Try taking out the games where one or other (or both) teams have nothing to play for and see if that alters the results much.

Joseph Henderson

How are people getting on with the Lay Away 3.0 filter? Think I may have just started it at a bad time, but I am 17.6pts down for April & May so far (7.2pts in April and 10.4pts in May).

The max drawdown I have recorded is 22.32% - maybe this is just variance or perhaps end of season impact?

Martin

@Richard-Latimer hope the prints stuff picks up mate.

Seems like your trading is progressing well

Richard Latimer

@Martin no not yet. Not quite

I'm in a race against time though and the prints still haven't taken off.