Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Trevor-H yes and no the problem with those leagues is they count it as an overall table too, it's quite confusing!
Yes, but for our purposes, the overall isn't really relevant, is it? Would it be possible to treat as two competitions in the software?
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@Martin @Adam I only want to look at games in which both teams have played 8 games or more in the current season, but I think the software treats the Clausura in SA leagues an an extension of the Apertura, rather than a different competition (see pic, which says this fixture has a 19-game history even though I've restricted to current season and 8 games minimum). Is there a reason for this? They are effectively two separate competitions so far as form is concerned, aren't they?
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Arran-Shackell +7pts
I'm still looking at this but found myself making too many tweaks even for me so I've gone back to the drawing board.
One thing I have found so far is that when there are less than 10 past h2h fixtures those results are massively in the negative for me. Since 08/12 to now and the ones I've looked at (still collecting a bit of h2h data manually as I didn't add it to filter initially) it is -52pts when fewer than 10 games played between both sides.
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@Arran-Shackell +7pts
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@Arran-Shackell said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Can you make a judgement yet on how this has improved strike rate and ROI?
I can compare the 5 weeks of the forward testing since I made it on December 23rd.
Original Lay Away -23pts
This Version + 9pts -
@Andy-Donnelly I have a league filter one also only do odds 3.7-5.8 filter-settings.txt
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Morning, has anyone done any league filtering on the lay away strategy out of interest?
My data is telling me that the English lower leagues, German lower leagues and Turkey as a whole have been struggling.
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@Richard-Latimer spot on!
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Alastair-Todd I think people prefer strategies with higher strike rates as there will be less losses so mentally they find it a bit easier but the downside is that it often is backing odds on, so the odds vs strike rate becomes the most important thing ultimately.
Odds vs strike rate is always the most important thing. The odds simply need to be good enough for the strike rate you have.
I've tried lower odds again more recently and would do so again. I think one of the main reasons people gravitate towards higher s/r systems is it's easier to compound your interest and grow a bank with less losing streaks. The pitfalls are there but if done correctly it should be able to grow quicker.
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@Alastair-Todd I think people prefer strategies with higher strike rates as there will be less losses so mentally they find it a bit easier but the downside is that it often is backing odds on, so the odds vs strike rate becomes the most important thing ultimately.
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@Alastair-Todd said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Liam-Mcnee Hi Liam, as a relative novice here (me not you!), can I ask whether a strike rate of 36% can actually be profitable? I get concerned if mine drops below 80% for my over 1.5 back strategy. I can't see how a strategy that loses two thirds of the time can actually make you any money.
looked at a strategy yesterday that hits 16% of the time and makes a good profit, it's all average odds based whether you profit or not. Strike rate in a lot of ways is irrelevant without average odds to compare it to.
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@Alastair-Todd Hi Alastair. The odds for over 3.5 tend to be high. I only pick selections if the odds are over 2.7 meaning you don't need a really high SR to be profitable. For example, last month only 22 out of my 61 selections won but I was still 13 points up.
Over 1.5 goals is a different beast where the odds are usually low meaning you need to have a high SR because your liability is higher. Hope that makes sense.
Btw I'm still a novice here too mate