Set & Forget Football Strategies
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It's not finished and I'll continue to forward tweak if I see patterns develop.
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@Andy-Donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer By forward tested I mean, have these results been achieved since you made your changes.
Just asking as I’ve been guilty in the past of looking back at data and making changes that have increased the SR and profit significantly and then after those changes were made and I’ve continued to use the strategy (with changes included) things haven’t continued to perform in the same way.
Mainly yeah but all my tweaks are from the raw data. Ruled out stuff can be put back in and can be used to oppose the original idea.
Currently got just under 40% backing at around 4 if you want to look at it like that. That's from around 75 selections.
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@Richard-Latimer By forward tested I mean, have these results been achieved since you made your changes.
Just asking as I’ve been guilty in the past of looking back at data and making changes that have increased the SR and profit significantly and then after those changes were made and I’ve continued to use the strategy (with changes included) things haven’t continued to perform in the same way.
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@Andy-Donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer Are these forward tested results post your tweaking? Or back tested?
Results sound very good.
It has been a pretty good run in general for last few weeks as well which is good.
Not sure what you mean. I'm just tracking data so back tested in that sense I suppose. I'd love to be able to forward test but I don't have a crystal ball
There have been losses on the raw data I'm tracking but it's either been something I already ruled out or on something I can look at and easily justify ruling out for now with minimal data.
1 more result to go in Juve today.
Truth be told I've made another couple of adjustments I was leaning on.
115 trades
110 wins
95.65% s/r
91.15pts profit
Ave lay odds 5.7
Ave losing lay odds 4.3 -
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@Richard-Latimer Are these forward tested results post your tweaking? Or back tested?
Results sound very good.
It has been a pretty good run in general for last few weeks as well which is good.
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Is this lay away?
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Quick update after starting to track my own tweaked version of this on 08/12.
114 trades, 106 wins, 92.98% s/r, ave odds odds 5.6 and 82.59pts profit.
I'll keep going and report back after the New Years set of fixtures.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
It's funny, I'm going through the away lay data and I wouldn't have laid West Ham vs Arsenal. Data I've tracked so far suggests this had every possibility of a West Ham win.
I mean, aside from the fact that the odds were way high anyway.
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It's funny, I'm going through the away lay data and I wouldn't have laid West Ham vs Arsenal. Data I've tracked so far suggests this had every possibility of a West Ham win.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Hi, I've got a SHG strategy that I've been collecting data for a while now which is doing really well and I would like to start running it on a bot in test mode. I remember there being a thread somewhere with strategies on to download and import the rules into fairbot but I can't find it. Does anyone have the SHG strategy that was on there or if anyone knows how to find the page at all then it would be appreciated a lot.
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@Nick-Allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer Very interesting analysis indeed Richard, Just had a quick question:
How did you come up with the combined points average? As there is only the home ave points on the filter?
I recreated the filter and added to it. Plus I'm also manually tracking the times of their last win/draw/loss in a scope of 10.
I like to do 10 but include last seasons data.
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@Richard-Latimer Very interesting analysis indeed Richard, Just had a quick question:
How did you come up with the combined points average? As there is only the home ave points on the filter?
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@Andy-Donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer What parameters have you tweaked out of interest? I have about 1500 selections recorded now so could try your new logic over that and see if it stands up.
Unless you’ve already done your analysis using Martins data
I've added away average points is the first thing.
Then looking at the home average points it initially shows that between 2.5-2.6 these are unprofitable and 2.1 also. Small samples but my reasoning is thus.2 is the very lowest number and while not the best so far it has offered profit. I take this is as being good home teams with a decent points average which in the right circumstance will only improve or stay similar.
2.1 is just above and thus far not great.
2.2 up to 2.4 is the most common, loads of selections all doing well.
2.5-2.6 is where it's hitting a bit of a cliff. Small number of selections again and a very hit or miss set of results which if it were to continue could be opposed in the end.
2.7-3.0 is doing well. My reasoning here is these teams have got over the hump (takes a lot for this kind of average) and and are still powering through (think Villa).
Second thing I looked at is the combined points average. 4.5-4.9 is again proving very unreliable (with exception of home teams on 3 ave).
There are other things like frequency of home wins/draws etc... plus away results as well as when first win, loss, draw happened.
More fixtures tonight so we'll see what happens.
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@Richard-Latimer What parameters have you tweaked out of interest? I have about 1500 selections recorded now so could try your new logic over that and see if it stands up.
Unless you’ve already done your analysis using Martins data
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@Andy-Donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer Interested to see what you come up with.
I’ve been wrestling with this strategy for a while. I really like the idea behind it but so far my experience is that it has been very volatile and in its basic form probably isn’t scalable because of that, so for that very reason it needs some filtering somewhere, just need to isolate the right variable
After a 2nd full weekend I've managed to get it to 90% at ave odds 5.5 using quite simple filters. 75 selections so far.
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@Nick-Allan always be prepared for some drawdown
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@Richard-Latimer @Andy-Donnelly I was thinking of going live with the trading on small stakes and perhaps think about a fixed liability of say 2Pts, It will mean the P&L is reduced but if there is a drawdown your’e not as exposed.
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@Andy-Donnelly I'll report back but there's less variables to work with than overs so for that reason alone I reckon it will be quicker to find out where it can be improved.
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@Richard-Latimer Interested to see what you come up with.
I’ve been wrestling with this strategy for a while. I really like the idea behind it but so far my experience is that it has been very volatile and in its basic form probably isn’t scalable because of that, so for that very reason it needs some filtering somewhere, just need to isolate the right variable
