Set & Forget Football Strategies
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I'm doing selections for both the following afternoon and morning after now. Means I don't get caught racing to get overnighters or morning selections done. May as well post all now:
Laying all home teams:
I have very carefully worked out my stake accoridng to current strike rates and longest expected losing streak (this x5 would be what it takes to bust the bank).
Odds 3.5 or lower 76% s/r (rounded up) 140 selections
Odds 3.55-7.40 93% (rounded down) 129 selections
Odds 7.6-11.00 94% (rounded down) 36 selections -
This is the graph of p/l
I've hardly made any adjustments in ages. The removal of certain South American leagues was done after I noticed the s/r was poor across the board for South America since I started collecting data in Feb.
A closer look however revealed that only a small number of those South American countries were bringing the overall down and to rmove the others without reason to do so would have been to throw away decent profit.
That decision has so far proved correct with a few decent results coming in South America and a couple negative ones avoided.
The last change I made was ruling out an away 3 streak loss. 1 small odds loss this month but it was literally the only one since Feb that I'd seen with a 3 streak loss and it lost. Makes no sense to collect 3 or 4 results a season that may be like that.
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@Martin Get alot of draws, a few crazy comebacks so holding your nerve quite often necessary. Good thing here is average odds low and justas many odds 3.5 or under as there are between 3.55-7.4.
Only a few go over those odds. I take them around 5 mins before kick off as well as sometimes the price drops quite a lot.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin Laying Nashville @ home against Orlando in MLS
these are unreal mate! not just winning but 0-3!
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Nashville 0 - 3 Orlando
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Nothing for tomorrow at all. So fed up of this summer break
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@Richard-Latimer don't leave us in suspense!
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@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Overnight I will be laying:
The home team
0-2
So far so good.
Got another overnighter later.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Overnight I will be laying:
The home team
very good!
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Overnight I will be laying:
The home team
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@joshua-armstrong the idea of not being in top 3 isn't one of mine so I can't answer. Was it one of Ryan's?
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Cerro lost 0-1
Fenix lost 1-22/2 today
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Went to bed at 1-0. Woke up and they'd turned it around to defeat NE 1-3.
I'm going to post my selections on this thread for a bit before moving to my own in Aug. Hopefully rest of month goes well.
Laying CA Cerro & Fenix in todays Uruguayan games.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
I said when I got 300 trades in I'd divulge what I've been doing and now is the time. Going through a little bit of a sticky patch but July still just about up.
So this is a home lay system:
Raw data is 435 strong, 75% s/r, average odds 4.1 and profit almost 79pts. Overall yield from that is 5.76%
My filter is this:
Although if home team has a higher points total than away I remove those games and don't keep the records anymore.
But the raw data isn't where I stop. Yes I have made sure things are way less complicated than previous and I have avoided jumping down the rabbit hole. That said there are a few tweaks I make to the raw data as follows:
These tweaks do the following:
Trades 300
Wins 255
s/r 85%
Total profit 156pts (to 1pt level staking)
Ave odds 4.4
Yield 15.3%That's it for now but just to finish off by saying I have a lay in of New England at present.
156pts profit wow! Good work
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Also on the tweaks to filter I will clarify that while I combine some stats with one other I will never combine more than 2 after the last system and all the pitfalls I uncovered.
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I said when I got 300 trades in I'd divulge what I've been doing and now is the time. Going through a little bit of a sticky patch but July still just about up.
So this is a home lay system:
Raw data is 435 strong, 75% s/r, average odds 4.1 and profit almost 79pts. Overall yield from that is 5.76%
My filter is this:
Although if home team has a higher points total than away I remove those games and don't keep the records anymore.
But the raw data isn't where I stop. Yes I have made sure things are way less complicated than previous and I have avoided jumping down the rabbit hole. That said there are a few tweaks I make to the raw data as follows:
These tweaks do the following:
Trades 300
Wins 255
s/r 85%
Total profit 156pts (to 1pt level staking)
Ave odds 4.4
Yield 15.3%That's it for now but just to finish off by saying I have a lay in of New England at present.
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@Terry-Cooke yes they work better as Back Unders since Covid got back to normal, not many selections per year which is a problem for it
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@Martin Are you not tracking the results for Tomasz Under 1.5 Goals Lays anymore?