Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@dan-mackinnon its a good point Dan, perhaps an option rather than an obligation for notifications, similar to the Betfair ones? You could select which games you wanted to be notified of by start/finish or perhaps a calender style to update on future fixtures worth researching.
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@martin @Darragh-Moran-0 wouldn't that kind of undermine the "Set & Forget" element if you have to constantly check for new notifications?
Just out of curiosity, how often do you check the filters? From my understanding, all the games that qualify should be available at the start of the day. If you're missing games you might have the filter forecast set too narrow, you can change the filter to look ahead up to 5 days. I leave mine at today and tomorrow so I know whether I need to check back.
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Any chance we could get email/telegram notifications when new selections are added?
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@paul-p said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:
Applying the "My Over 3.5 Goals - Backs" filters but backing O4.5 goals also produces great results. Strike rate is lower (17.3%) however the ROI is higher (35.3%) - see attached using the odds from Betexplorer. I'm going to start tracking this....0_1661252177258_O4.5.xlsx
Bare in mind anything with low strike rate will be subject to very long losing streaks at some point. It's just statistics. You need to stake accordingly.
For 17% I have the longest expected losing streak at almost 25 for between 50-100 trades.
At 1000 trades that increases to around 38.
And just because one losing streak ends doesn't mean another won't start so you need to protect the bank by looking at allowing for more than one losing streak in quick succession.
The literature I read and that I my base my own calculations on suggest allowing 5x longest expected losing streak when calculating stake.
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Applying the "My Over 3.5 Goals - Backs" filters but backing O4.5 goals also produces great results. Strike rate is lower (17.3%) however the ROI is higher (35.3%) - see attached using the odds from Betexplorer. I'm going to start tracking this....0_1661252177258_O4.5.xlsx
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@martin just been looking at the set and forget spreadsheet, in particular the elo strategies of Wayne’s as I like the look of them.
I may have misunderstood but you’ve added together the back and lay p&l to get a total p&l. However, surely you wouldn’t be placing both trades on the same game and shouldn’t the total p@l be either one of them and not both combined?
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@martin Morning mate,
Yep I got that one! PK-35 today, right?
I think I've solved it - changed the Date restriction to 5 days or earlier, so it covers EVERYTHING, rather than potentially missing something where it's midnight-7am.
Cheers!
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@michael yeah that will happen because the odds to qualify are so close and it is the same filter barring the odds. I would check the odds, if below 2.1 I do the ELO Home strategy for it, if not and odds are between 2.1-2.18 I tend to remove it from both, if 2.2+ I use ELO AWAY
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@nick-allan yeah it's a slow burner that one, quality over quantity @Wayne-Ironside has been tracking it nearly a year maybe he can give more insight
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@matt-wood This is what i'm loving, the community spirit!
Something i'd like to add is that on my '1.5 Bet&& & Forget' strategy I set my auto cash out at 50p on a £2 to £3 trade. Typically, once that first goal goes in, my trade will green up and cash me out before the second goal. However, if i'm viewing the game i may stay until the second goal to collect.
50p may not seem a lot but it represents a return of 25 percent. Factoring losing trades, i usually complete 12 trades a day to come out with a profit. Of course, some days are better than others.
Anyone have variations on this? Seems to be working so far.
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@julian-drake-clarke @Chris-Osborne has hit on a top point there. Track your trades as you do them and break them down by leagues. You might find that one or two leagues are underperforming and hindering your overall profits.
The O1.5 system is a data driven system if you are doing it as a set and forget so it is all about looking for patterns in your data.
Track as much information as you have the time for. Keep it in a spreadsheet and you can then look at patterns.
I have an O1.5 spreadsheet and like Chris said, I put all of the games the software spits out into it but I have a minimum strike rate and if a league drops below this, I stop placing trades although still keep adding the games as it may recover and rise above the minimum strike rate again. MLS has done exactly this on my data for an O2.5, it dipped and dropped out of 'tradable' leagues but after a while has improved and come back.
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@julian-drake-clarke I can’t recommend paper trading strongly enough. I understand the poker comparison used to play for years but paper trading a strategy will save a lot of money.
Other things you can do are analyse results by leagues and discount the poor performing leagues although still Paper trade them in case there is a change in there fortunes