Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Hows the 2.0 shaping up out of curiosity in comparison?
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@Simon-Bates leagues updated and new odds range 3.7-5.5
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@Martin what changes have you made
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@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
0.5 for the away started very badly with 3 successive losses while the next 3 won. It may well right itself but after Saturdays surprise capitulation by Plzen when the away team were 0.4 there is also every possibly chance that 0.5 and under is ruled out. At present 0.4 is the lowest loss but the sheer size of that loss also means nothing under 0.6 is actually profitable anymore as things stand.
And no sooner than I say that but April starts with a 1-4 pounding in Columbia against a side with just 0.4 ave points. I am going to try and avoid a single change and look at this again for May to see if it justifies removing the low numbers which my feeling at the moment is gravitating towards.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Finally, I've also found a home win amount of just 5 when the ave pts are 2 and an away loss tally of 3 or fewer is substandard. It doesn't happen too often but so far it's running at a 12pt loss from 5 selections.
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When away is undefeated in 10 this looks iffy and I've removed for now based on initial results and logic. Only a 55% s/r thus far although only a small loss also.
Also excluded at present is a losing streak of anything over 1 although this is in the balance for future and isn't a major discussion point right now.
Of way more importance appears to be when home lost last game and away won theirs. 18 trades, 50% s/r, 11pt loss at ave odds 3.7.
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Ave odds 1.6 against:
25 trades, 64% s/r, 7pt loss, ave lay odds 4.1
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Ave odds 1 against:
38 trades, s/r 69%, loss of 13pts at ave odds 5.3.
It should be noted that I hadn't finished updating today. 2 more losses takes to 24pts loss while Bolivar are currently losing in Bolivia so it could get even worse.
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0.5 for the away started very badly with 3 successive losses while the next 3 won. It may well right itself but after Saturdays surprise capitulation by Plzen when the away team were 0.4 there is also every possibly chance that 0.5 and under is ruled out. At present 0.4 is the lowest loss but the sheer size of that loss also means nothing under 0.6 is actually profitable anymore as things stand.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
With 2.4 and 8 home wins it's not quite as pronounced and the potential is there that one day it could be brought back in but ave odds 6.2 and 79% s/r still mean a small loss from 24 trades.
2.5, 2.6, 2.7 I'll group as they're all in line:
That's 86 trades, 69.7% s/r, a loss of 36pts and ave odds of 5.7.
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It's a similar story with 2.2 where 6 home wins were made although only 18 trades so far:
61% s/r, 14pt deficit, ave laying odds 5.5
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To show this isn't just a kneejerk reaction here are the results for 2.1 ave home points:
If you can't see that's 63 trades, only a 57.14% s/r laying odds of 4.8 ave and a massive 55pt deficit
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Again these additional rules are on the attached sheet clearly marked:
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Ok so easiest way to see what I've been working on is to click the link in my signature, download the tab titled DOLOFFS and mess around with the filters yourself.
Anything I've filtered out is in red. The only real rule for the filter download itself is 2pts average above from last 10 games. 20 games overall (home+away) and h2h history which expands to at least 10 games. I found anything less than 10 games was highly unpredictable.
The rest I'm tracking but manually filtering when the data shows there's really no other option.
My refined data is 85.91% from 298 selections going back to Dec. It looked throughout the first 3 months as though this would just sing every day. March made a profit on paperr but way down from where it was at just under 15pts and 79% s/r.
Odds 3.5 or under fared very poorly in comparison to what came before and a decent end to March was seen off by a surprise collapse in Czech at high odds.
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Does anyone use an amount to win staking plan for a back strategy when the strike rate is high (say 85%+). Presumably just means bigger draw downs but higher ROI?
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Ready to share my findings after today when I should have 300 selections. March has been up and down but I haven't played it at all well and that's to my detriment. Could have been looking at around 12-20pts profit still.
As it is I'm taking the day off and starting fresh tomorrow. I've almost become guilty of expecting that perfect system again but perfect doesn't exist and the sooner I realise this once and for all the better.
Anyway, for better or worse, there are minimal exclusions and none really feel like back fitting to me as the selections and p/l for what I have excluded either makes perfect sense logically or to leave it in at this stage would be a little nuts.
See what you all think after today.
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@Andy-Donnelly No minimum and up to 11.00
The absolute worst game in the 0.5's was a Bosnian game in Sarajevo. All happened when I was only tracking but a hypothetical 10pt loss. -
@Richard-Latimer That’s interesting. I have excluding anything higher than 0.8 being up 50 pts since mid October (up 7 pts in 2024 so far).
What odds range are you using out of interest?
