Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@dan-mackinnon said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:
@martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:
@dan-mackinnon what about one daily email with your own selections?
Yeah, that makes sense. Sorry, I thought it would be an email for every selection which would be a bit overwhelming, especially if you're looking at multiple strategies.
I prefer to log in and just make it part of my routine, but I can understand why others might want it emailed.
I agree with Dan here, logging in to check and download my filter results keeps me in a routine and makes sure I keep doing things properly. Also though as Dan said, I can see why people would want it emailed.
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@martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:
@dan-mackinnon what about one daily email with your own selections?
Yeah, that makes sense. Sorry, I thought it would be an email for every selection which would be a bit overwhelming, especially if you're looking at multiple strategies.
I prefer to log in and just make it part of my routine, but I can understand why others might want it emailed.
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@martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:
@dan-mackinnon what about one daily email with your own selections?
It would be good if the csv which we download each day was automatically emailed to us instead
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@dan-mackinnon what about one daily email with your own selections?
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@dan-mackinnon its a good point Dan, perhaps an option rather than an obligation for notifications, similar to the Betfair ones? You could select which games you wanted to be notified of by start/finish or perhaps a calender style to update on future fixtures worth researching.
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@martin @Darragh-Moran-0 wouldn't that kind of undermine the "Set & Forget" element if you have to constantly check for new notifications?
Just out of curiosity, how often do you check the filters? From my understanding, all the games that qualify should be available at the start of the day. If you're missing games you might have the filter forecast set too narrow, you can change the filter to look ahead up to 5 days. I leave mine at today and tomorrow so I know whether I need to check back.
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Any chance we could get email/telegram notifications when new selections are added?
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@paul-p said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:
Applying the "My Over 3.5 Goals - Backs" filters but backing O4.5 goals also produces great results. Strike rate is lower (17.3%) however the ROI is higher (35.3%) - see attached using the odds from Betexplorer. I'm going to start tracking this....0_1661252177258_O4.5.xlsx
Bare in mind anything with low strike rate will be subject to very long losing streaks at some point. It's just statistics. You need to stake accordingly.
For 17% I have the longest expected losing streak at almost 25 for between 50-100 trades.
At 1000 trades that increases to around 38.
And just because one losing streak ends doesn't mean another won't start so you need to protect the bank by looking at allowing for more than one losing streak in quick succession.
The literature I read and that I my base my own calculations on suggest allowing 5x longest expected losing streak when calculating stake.
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Applying the "My Over 3.5 Goals - Backs" filters but backing O4.5 goals also produces great results. Strike rate is lower (17.3%) however the ROI is higher (35.3%) - see attached using the odds from Betexplorer. I'm going to start tracking this....0_1661252177258_O4.5.xlsx
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@martin just been looking at the set and forget spreadsheet, in particular the elo strategies of Wayne’s as I like the look of them.
I may have misunderstood but you’ve added together the back and lay p&l to get a total p&l. However, surely you wouldn’t be placing both trades on the same game and shouldn’t the total p@l be either one of them and not both combined?
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@martin Morning mate,
Yep I got that one! PK-35 today, right?
I think I've solved it - changed the Date restriction to 5 days or earlier, so it covers EVERYTHING, rather than potentially missing something where it's midnight-7am.
Cheers!
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@michael yeah that will happen because the odds to qualify are so close and it is the same filter barring the odds. I would check the odds, if below 2.1 I do the ELO Home strategy for it, if not and odds are between 2.1-2.18 I tend to remove it from both, if 2.2+ I use ELO AWAY
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