Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Two years of data I seem to remember you saying on one of your podcasts!
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@Joseph-Henderson if it's obvious I think a few hundred is fine but 2k is ideal
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Anyone got a view on how many results to have prior to doing some odds filtering?
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Seen a few correspondents in regards to Martins layaway 1.0 which I've been currently testing for the last five months. This is paper trading so no stakes, and this will give you an idea of how up and down set and forgets strategies can be, they can be incredibly lucrative but they can also draw down your bank. So, you need to be not only be aware of this but be ready for it as part of your trading strategy.
I would say for anyone who's concerned about their bank give serious consideration to laying at a fixed liability so for example if you put a £10 stake on an away team that's 4.0 if it loses you're going to lose £30 quid, but if you have a fixed liability to £10 pounds you know your max loss going into the trade. Yes you'll make less profit than a flat stake, however if it does lose you lose into a fixed liability of say £10 instead of £30. This won't grow your bank as fast however it does mean that you're in a better position if the strategy has a drawdown. Just something to think about……….
I personally think it's a fantastic strategy I've been doing a lot of analysis on leagues and odds and I seriously think that this could be a strong strategy that I take forward once we get a year's worth of results which is in the next couple of months.
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The Amazonas and Brusque ones shouldn’t have been traded. And I’m saying that because I also got burnt on those too. They are playing a weird mini league thing in Brazil Serie C at the moment. I knew this before kick off but traded anyway which was stupid on my part but definitely a lesson to take heed of moving forward. Don’t go for any “playoff” type games. Filter should remove most of these selections but some slip through due to the format of the playoffs I guess
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@Arran-Shackell Betdaq only goes to National league. No North or South.
Losers
LAY 1. FK Pribram
LAY Fc Fredericia
LAY Atlas FC
LAY Vasa IFK
LAY Bradford
LAY Aguilas Doradas Rionegro
LAY Amazonas FC AM
LAY Brusque FC SC
LAY Trelleborgs FF
LAY Fotbal Club FCSB
LAY Barcelona SC -
Lay away did well for me this weekend - i stripped out any selections with bad form, away team was the favourite, not enough games and anything else i didn’t like (like league position).
Edit: the heap of lower league england games that showed up in the filters on saturday afternoon. I only went ahead with two of them (will check which two later) were these the cause for most of the damage?
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I'm up 2.6 units from these that were dated 22/9 + by Betdaq.
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@Andy-Donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Gavin-Rumsey
Yeh if anyone is blindly trading all selections that come up, I’d definitely advise not to do that on this strategy particularly at this point in the season as a lot of selections have played very few games.
In my experience, just by looking at league table positions, recent form and odds you can easily cut out some selections particularly those that have home team less than 2.25 pts
God I hope no one blindly trades anything! These aren't tips.
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I'm not sure. Maybe it's just the pure fact that I'm new here (but I've been trying what i term 'lab work' in betfair for 20 years') I can stay a course. I'm just a little wary when I have a down turn as I've had my soul crushed so many times in strategy work.
Scars of the past
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@Alex-Rendell Ahh, ok. Ive just compared the filters and Ive made adjustments to mine.
Home points per game >= 2.25
Betfair away odds >< 2.48 and 5.8I wouldnt have come up with these myself I think I just followed a conversation discussing this strategy then looked at the spreadsheet to confirm what was being said. And I dont back an away fav, thats just my rule
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@Gavin-Rumsey
Yeh if anyone is blindly trading all selections that come up, I’d definitely advise not to do that on this strategy particularly at this point in the season as a lot of selections have played very few games.
In my experience, just by looking at league table positions, recent form and odds you can easily cut out some selections particularly those that have home team less than 2.25 pts
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Not a great weekend indeed but it started ok which helped keep losses down a tad
There was a lot of English lower league selections and many with the bare minimum played to show up.
Once there is more data some league filtering might cut out the lower leagues (not that I'm sure they are down overall).
Hopefully things settle as more games are played and form is picked up with a bit more certaintity behind it
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@Tony-Hastie around 50% must’ve lost on Saturday alone..? Still well up over the last few months though
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Lay away has won 15 out of the last 17 for me. I didnt take one last night because away team was favourite but thats the best run its had since I started doing it...
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill it’s had another rough weekend but it can recover this surprisingly quickly! Keep the faith or reduce your stakes if it’s causing you stress.
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill not sure if this is the same one I follow as I missed yesterday due to family birthdays but it's been doing fine for me, that said I'm still testing and want a year of data before looking at leagues etc.
I think it sounds like you should not be doing it as you don't have confidence in it, am I right about that?
Would you like help with anything?
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Must say Lay away is haemorrhaging money now
The mental aspect of it is so difficult. I meSm if the selections are on point then there shouldn't be any problem in the long term I suppose
Set and forget is so attractive but it may be time to go back to the trading LTD for a while
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill cheers I'll keep avoiding international breaks then!
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@Alex-Rendell Absolutely mate!
