Set & Forget Football Strategies

Martin

@james-rome said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:

Hi All

Been working on a Over 1.5 Filter going well but looking over the data looked at the losers try to see if anything i can do so ive extracted some of the data done Home Av Goals - Away Averaget Goals if the same is greater than -1 and less than 1 with O1.5 odds greater than 1.3

With backing with 1 point from 317 Selections since 25/04/22 would of produced 50.88 Points 16% ROI seems a good plan lots of losing runs though so would be hard to trade. Think got some legs in just woundered what peoples thoughts are on it 0_1664805146484_Betfair Trading u1.5 Filter.xlsx

anything obvious in that middle period that was the reason for the downswing?

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Hi All

Been working on a Over 1.5 Filter going well but looking over the data looked at the losers try to see if anything i can do so ive extracted some of the data done Home Av Goals - Away Averaget Goals if the same is greater than -1 and less than 1 with O1.5 odds greater than 1.3

With backing with 1 point from 317 Selections since 25/04/22 would of produced 50.88 Points 16% ROI seems a good plan lots of losing runs though so would be hard to trade. Think got some legs in just woundered what peoples thoughts are on it 0_1664805146484_Betfair Trading u1.5 Filter.xlsx

Martin

@teck-fee-liew check out the over 3.5 goals filter on the opening post

Martin

@paul-p said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:

@martin ok thanks for that. What is your rule of thumb? I.e. how many weeks from the end of the season would you avoid?

3 games is my rule of thumb but I may move to 5 monitoring it at present

Martin

@julian-drake-clarke said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:

@martin So, thanks to your help with the videos and a bit of patience I managed to create a filter called 'The Super Thicko U4.5 Plan' (sexy title huh?). Tried it out for the first time yesterday and..... it worked! Not only that, I'm watching it tonight setting up another 3 winning trades as I type this!

Nobody more surprised than me. 6 trades selected by the filter and its looking like 6 winners! Holding off buying that 5 bedroom house in Surrey with the winnings just yet and it's early days but its looking very optimistic! Cheers!

keep up the good work

Nick Allan

@paul-p i always look and see if they have something to play for from about 4 games left of the season, if they are going for the league or play off or in a relagtion dog fight go for it, mid table nothing to play for avoid. Takes a bit more time in trade selection but better than avoiding them altogther i find

Paul P

@martin ok thanks for that. What is your rule of thumb? I.e. how many weeks from the end of the season would you avoid?

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@martin So, thanks to your help with the videos and a bit of patience I managed to create a filter called 'The Super Thicko U4.5 Plan' (sexy title huh?). Tried it out for the first time yesterday and..... it worked! Not only that, I'm watching it tonight setting up another 3 winning trades as I type this!

Nobody more surprised than me. 6 trades selected by the filter and its looking like 6 winners! Holding off buying that 5 bedroom house in Surrey with the winnings just yet and it's early days but its looking very optimistic! Cheers!

Martin

@paul-p said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:

Hey @martin, a few of the games this week matching Tomasz O1.5 Lay filter are in the last week of the season. Would you recommend backing these? Or leave them if they are in the last four gameweeks? I thought I saw on one of your videos you may have recommended leaving the matches that are close to the end of the season.... Cheers Paul

I wouldn't trade them myself

Paul P

Hey @martin, a few of the games this week matching Tomasz O1.5 Lay filter are in the last week of the season. Would you recommend backing these? Or leave them if they are in the last four gameweeks? I thought I saw on one of your videos you may have recommended leaving the matches that are close to the end of the season.... Cheers Paul

Fraser cord

@david-baker-0 I have been getting many of my bets matched in play (using the betting window theory but set and forget). I totally agree with @Martin, I have no definitive data to back this yet but what I can say, it works well with the lay U1.5, but not so well with Back over 1.5 (missed 3 matches today with early goals)

With the backs, you need lots of hits to offset 1 missing, but with the lays, you can miss the odd one now and again. The difference seems to be, the backs selections can often have lots of goals (although we only need 2), but the lay selections rarely have more than 2.

I've had a few lays recently where there has been an early goal so missed my bet getting matched, but it's remained 1-0 until past 60 mins, it matches, then the 2nd goes in. Yes I run the risk of missing the bet if the 2nd goes in earlier (or losing if it stays 1-0) but until this keeps happening consistently, I'm significantly reducing my liability and not really harming my strike rate much. I'm trying to predict the lay price around 15mins and just pitching it there to match in play. If no goal in the 1st 15 mins, or still 1-0 around 60 mins it tends to match.

I'm now keeping a note of wins/losses and unmatched wins to check I'm not pitching my lays at unrealistic prices and constantly missing winners.

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@martin It was just a thought really off the back of Ryan’s video yesterday about trading windows.My thinking was that the filter has selected the game will have o1.5 goals and the betfair odds suggest this also then it just might be that window in which this happens might be say 20 mins into the game at which point the odds would be in the price range.I know this is now moving into the realms of trading rather than set and forget but just wondered if is was a way to include the lower odds games.

Martin

@david-baker-0 best way as ever is to test it out, maybe it will work, I just can't guess I like to know for sure it has a solid foundation

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@martin I see,thanks very much

Martin

@david-baker-0 for me no because you are then limiting the time in which you can get the winning goals, like my analysis says there will be x goals in 90mins but if I enter at 10mins I then only have 80mins and my analysis was not geared for that.

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With strategies that have a minimum odds and you get a game that is below these odds at the start of the game is it ok to put an order in the market and let it go in play in the hope it gets matched?
For example on an o1.5 strategy the minimum odds are 1.20 and a game comes up on the filter that is 1.17 is ok to put in the order for 1.2 and let it go in play

Matt Wood

@richard-latimer Also on Martin's spreadsheet on the 'combined' tab.

David Walsh

@richard-latimer They're on Youtube

Richard Latimer

@chris-osborne said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:

@Martin liking the live videos you've posted last couple of days esrly days but a couple of potential angles look promising although as you said the late goals cant continue or can they?

Unfortunately can't join live due to work reasons

Where are these posted then @Martin?

Martin

@chris-osborne guess only time will tell! Defo something in these combined filters though, the logic is sound in that there must be a reason multiple filters are picking up the same matches.