Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Nick-Allan always be prepared for some drawdown
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@Richard-Latimer @Andy-Donnelly I was thinking of going live with the trading on small stakes and perhaps think about a fixed liability of say 2Pts, It will mean the P&L is reduced but if there is a drawdown your’e not as exposed.
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@Andy-Donnelly I'll report back but there's less variables to work with than overs so for that reason alone I reckon it will be quicker to find out where it can be improved.
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@Richard-Latimer Interested to see what you come up with.
I’ve been wrestling with this strategy for a while. I really like the idea behind it but so far my experience is that it has been very volatile and in its basic form probably isn’t scalable because of that, so for that very reason it needs some filtering somewhere, just need to isolate the right variable
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@Andy-Donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer I’m leaving both the games today. One of them due to odds and the other due to the away teams form and the fact that they were champions last year.
Did another deep dive of my data yesterday on this strategy which stretches back to August and if I restrict my selections to those in the odds range of 3.5 - 6, I remove a lot of the crazy fluctuations that I have seen and profit is very consistent month on month. Will monitor between now and end of Jan before formally switching to this
I'm just not keen on odds based things as these change. Pre-match stats don't. I think you eliminate many of the fluctuations by taking out the anomalys.
I'm also looking at it not restricting to current season and using last 10 games as I do with my over.
Alot of selections so I don't think it will take to long to reach a conclusion. That said, as I've learnt with my overs. Truly finding everything that works and everything that doesn't takes much longer.
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@Richard-Latimer I’m leaving both the games today. One of them due to odds and the other due to the away teams form and the fact that they were champions last year.
Did another deep dive of my data yesterday on this strategy which stretches back to August and if I restrict my selections to those in the odds range of 3.5 - 6, I remove a lot of the crazy fluctuations that I have seen and profit is very consistent month on month. Will monitor between now and end of Jan before formally switching to this
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They may both win but anyone doing these, I'd be very careful of the match in Jordan as away teams stats are equally as good if not better:
The 90 refers to a combination of home wins and draws % wise
The 10 refers to a combination of away draws and losses % wise -
The lay away really interests me as so much data already. So I'm tracking it myself with a couple of other filters put in to measure 0 up (plus a few manual things being analysed) just to see if I can find any patterns to improve.
So far, when the trade loses, it's often big numbers. Or rather big combinations of numbers (I'm looking at average points of the away teams as well).
Only a week to go on but I wanted to see if I could carry my train of thought though from the overs I've been working on the past 2 years into this. I think I can.
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@Andrew-Dobinson personal choice really, I like to keep recording simple otherwise I know I will get behind with it.
Some pros I know don't record anything, which I find mind boggling but I guess P&L is ulitmately king.
Different horses for different courses and all that.
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@Martin say your happy with one of the set and forget strats to start putting money on. Would you start recording more stats on the selections? Because your spreadsheets are very simple i was wondering what a pro would do. thanks
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@Abhijeet-Bose works fine for me, are you on chrome using this link: https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/ratings/
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Can anyone tell me why the ratings page is not opening from yesterday?
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Been doing the Lay Away for the last week or so and just checked back on my Betfair account last 7 days to show profit/loss and up £145.75.
One thing I did last night on the CD Luis Angel Firpo game was to back for another £10 at odds of 1.74 when the away team was winning 0-1 just after half time. Stats showed CD Luis had 11 shots to 2 shots and had way more possession and corners.
Ended up 3-1 to home team so a nice £19.60 profit, trusting the selection, odds and inplay stats.
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Yes agree on back testing, will be amazing.
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Thanks for that insight
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@Andy-Donnelly this is where the back testing software would be great as you can break down past results to see trends instantly and then you can live test on small stakes
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One other thing I’ve noticed through further analysis today and worth monitoring moving forward is the total overall games played variable, which is currently set to 8.
Not sure whether others have suffered the same fate, but the lay away has tanked a bit for me in the last few weeks and wanted to see if there were any trends.
What I noticed is that in the month of October, 73% of selections had less than 16 games played. If I compare that to the great month that was had in August, just 12% of selections had total games at less than 16.
Will be interesting to see moving forward how that works as most winter leagues will naturally get to 16 games + soon enough anyway. May be a case that 8 games is too small a sample size which would make sense
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@Nick-Allan I've been looking at the gap between league position too, looking at a 3 place gap at least 4 points difference. Will up my figures to include over 3.25 also.
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@Martin Same, also looking at home odds and league positions of both teams to see if there is any correlation there
