Set & Forget Football Strategies

Martin

@Trevor-H said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Trevor-H said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Martin Could you just clarify the 'Restrict to Going in Play' option. I thought it meant games that you couldn't trade in play on BF, but when I remove it, I see a lot of games that I think will be tradable in play, at least for match odds and overs.

Betfair change their intentions all the time so I wouldn't use this filter personally.

It does seem a bit flaky. When I switched it off just now, West Brom v So'ton appeared. Not exactly a pub team game.

Worth messaging @Adam about that one as that should be available.

Trevor H

@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Trevor-H said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Martin Could you just clarify the 'Restrict to Going in Play' option. I thought it meant games that you couldn't trade in play on BF, but when I remove it, I see a lot of games that I think will be tradable in play, at least for match odds and overs.

Betfair change their intentions all the time so I wouldn't use this filter personally.

It does seem a bit flaky. When I switched it off just now, West Brom v So'ton appeared. Not exactly a pub team game.

Richard Latimer

@Trevor-H said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Martin Could you just clarify the 'Restrict to Going in Play' option. I thought it meant games that you couldn't trade in play on BF, but when I remove it, I see a lot of games that I think will be tradable in play, at least for match odds and overs.

Betfair change their intentions all the time so I wouldn't use this filter personally.

Trevor H

@Martin Could you just clarify the 'Restrict to Going in Play' option. I thought it meant games that you couldn't trade in play on BF, but when I remove it, I see a lot of games that I think will be tradable in play, at least for match odds and overs.

Adam

Everywhere I've seen represents them as 2 halves of the same competition, literally "opening" and "closing".

There's an apertura and a clausura in each season, for example Liga MX is split into apertura and clausura, but the season is still 2023/24.

Some leagues have 3 stages, I forget which now.

Martin

@Trevor-H for me personally I use it and if the league doesn't work get rid but the data from one season is so limited if you split it.

Trevor H

@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Trevor-H yes and no the problem with those leagues is they count it as an overall table too, it's quite confusing!

Yes, but for our purposes, the overall isn't really relevant, is it? Would it be possible to treat as two competitions in the software?

Martin

@Trevor-H yes and no the problem with those leagues is they count it as an overall table too, it's quite confusing!

Trevor H

@Martin @Adam I only want to look at games in which both teams have played 8 games or more in the current season, but I think the software treats the Clausura in SA leagues an an extension of the Apertura, rather than a different competition (see pic, which says this fixture has a 19-game history even though I've restricted to current season and 8 games minimum). Is there a reason for this? They are effectively two separate competitions so far as form is concerned, aren't they?

Richard Latimer

@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Arran-Shackell +7pts

I'm still looking at this but found myself making too many tweaks even for me so I've gone back to the drawing board.

One thing I have found so far is that when there are less than 10 past h2h fixtures those results are massively in the negative for me. Since 08/12 to now and the ones I've looked at (still collecting a bit of h2h data manually as I didn't add it to filter initially) it is -52pts when fewer than 10 games played between both sides.

Arran Shackell

@Martin

Obviously long way to go, but encouraging

Martin

@Arran-Shackell +7pts

Arran Shackell

@Martin

How did it get on this weekend?

Martin

@Arran-Shackell said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Martin

Can you make a judgement yet on how this has improved strike rate and ROI?

I can compare the 5 weeks of the forward testing since I made it on December 23rd.

Original Lay Away -23pts
This Version + 9pts

Arran Shackell

@Martin

Can you make a judgement yet on how this has improved strike rate and ROI?

Andy Donnelly

@Martin Ok thanks, will take a look.

Martin

@Andy-Donnelly I have a league filter one also only do odds 3.7-5.8 filter-settings.txt

Andy Donnelly

Morning, has anyone done any league filtering on the lay away strategy out of interest?

My data is telling me that the English lower leagues, German lower leagues and Turkey as a whole have been struggling.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer spot on!

Richard Latimer

@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Alastair-Todd I think people prefer strategies with higher strike rates as there will be less losses so mentally they find it a bit easier but the downside is that it often is backing odds on, so the odds vs strike rate becomes the most important thing ultimately.

Odds vs strike rate is always the most important thing. The odds simply need to be good enough for the strike rate you have.

I've tried lower odds again more recently and would do so again. I think one of the main reasons people gravitate towards higher s/r systems is it's easier to compound your interest and grow a bank with less losing streaks. The pitfalls are there but if done correctly it should be able to grow quicker.