Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@david-baker-0 I have been getting many of my bets matched in play (using the betting window theory but set and forget). I totally agree with @Martin, I have no definitive data to back this yet but what I can say, it works well with the lay U1.5, but not so well with Back over 1.5 (missed 3 matches today with early goals)
With the backs, you need lots of hits to offset 1 missing, but with the lays, you can miss the odd one now and again. The difference seems to be, the backs selections can often have lots of goals (although we only need 2), but the lay selections rarely have more than 2.
I've had a few lays recently where there has been an early goal so missed my bet getting matched, but it's remained 1-0 until past 60 mins, it matches, then the 2nd goes in. Yes I run the risk of missing the bet if the 2nd goes in earlier (or losing if it stays 1-0) but until this keeps happening consistently, I'm significantly reducing my liability and not really harming my strike rate much. I'm trying to predict the lay price around 15mins and just pitching it there to match in play. If no goal in the 1st 15 mins, or still 1-0 around 60 mins it tends to match.
I'm now keeping a note of wins/losses and unmatched wins to check I'm not pitching my lays at unrealistic prices and constantly missing winners.
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@martin It was just a thought really off the back of Ryan’s video yesterday about trading windows.My thinking was that the filter has selected the game will have o1.5 goals and the betfair odds suggest this also then it just might be that window in which this happens might be say 20 mins into the game at which point the odds would be in the price range.I know this is now moving into the realms of trading rather than set and forget but just wondered if is was a way to include the lower odds games.
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@david-baker-0 for me no because you are then limiting the time in which you can get the winning goals, like my analysis says there will be x goals in 90mins but if I enter at 10mins I then only have 80mins and my analysis was not geared for that.
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With strategies that have a minimum odds and you get a game that is below these odds at the start of the game is it ok to put an order in the market and let it go in play in the hope it gets matched?
For example on an o1.5 strategy the minimum odds are 1.20 and a game comes up on the filter that is 1.17 is ok to put in the order for 1.2 and let it go in play -
@richard-latimer Also on Martin's spreadsheet on the 'combined' tab.
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@richard-latimer They're on Youtube
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@chris-osborne said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:
@Martin liking the live videos you've posted last couple of days esrly days but a couple of potential angles look promising although as you said the late goals cant continue or can they?
Unfortunately can't join live due to work reasons
Where are these posted then @Martin?
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@Martin liking the live videos you've posted last couple of days esrly days but a couple of potential angles look promising although as you said the late goals cant continue or can they?
Unfortunately can't join live due to work reasons
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@nick-allan Ok mate will do. Thanks for that, appreciate it
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@richard-egan Adam made a formula using the same principles, it is fascinating stuff and in particular the laying the away team when home team is 2.1 or below on that filter has been fantastic for close to a year now.
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@richard-latimer Thanks, I did google it and read about the ELO rankings for football, quite interesting really.
I also booked ELO tickets for 2023!
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@richard-latimer i thought it was a band :face_with_tears_of_joy:
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@richard-egan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration Project:
Hi, wondering if anyone could help?
I'm adding copying these strategies to my filters on stats software and got to the ELO ones and I can't figure what ELO stands for?!It's specifically a chess ranking devised by someone with that name to rank chess players. It has been adopted now in many other sport.
Google ELO.
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@ross-love this is martins version of it that i use, please be careful though as its been very up and down of late, im considering dropping it. Id test it on very low stakes for a couple of months
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/assets/uploads/files/1661324446572-filter-settings.txt
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Hi, wondering if anyone could help?
I'm adding copying these strategies to my filters on stats software and got to the ELO ones and I can't figure what ELO stands for?!