Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Greg-Mitchell were you testing matches where the games had 1.30+ odds? If not the testing is pretty void as lots of games are lower than 1.3 at HT.
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I may be being a bit daft, but here goes...
How does anybody deal with the circular conundrum of any strategy?
So, for example, you have a strategy for SHG, you monitor it for a while, after 1,000 selection it shows a strike rate of 81%. Which means to make any money on it. you need to be betting at odds of 1.3 or above.
So you put it into practice, and don't back anything less than 1.3, so only enter when the odds get to 1.3 anytime in the second half.
Because, there are goals scored before the odds get to 1.3, you miss some of the selections, takes the strike rate down to 78% and consequently it becomes a loss making strategy, so you increase the required odds to 1.35, which knocks out more selections which score before the odds get to 1.35, and so on and so on.
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@Alex-Rendell said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin could you send me the most recent lay away spreadsheet please mate! Gonna go to town on it. Thank you
updated the one in the OP
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@Martin could you send me the most recent lay away spreadsheet please mate! Gonna go to town on it. Thank you
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@joshua-armstrong usually tables will show what games matter but if in any doubt leave them alone soccerstats ones are good for it.
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@Martin Ive almost got 3 months of data on the lay away strat i have been researching everygame in the morning on the shortlist and getting rid of any that dont meet any of my criteria i currently have 87 games 76 of them won and 11 lost odds between 3.7 and 5.8 so decently profitable but my question is now some leagues are almost hitting last 6 games in season how do i find the promotions and relegations? I saw its researched on wikipedia? Does anyone have some more information please? Can't seem to find it? Thanks
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@Arran-Shackell 14pts up
1.0 is -56pts since I created 2.0 for comparison
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@Simon-Bates leagues updated and new odds range 3.7-5.5
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@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
0.5 for the away started very badly with 3 successive losses while the next 3 won. It may well right itself but after Saturdays surprise capitulation by Plzen when the away team were 0.4 there is also every possibly chance that 0.5 and under is ruled out. At present 0.4 is the lowest loss but the sheer size of that loss also means nothing under 0.6 is actually profitable anymore as things stand.
And no sooner than I say that but April starts with a 1-4 pounding in Columbia against a side with just 0.4 ave points. I am going to try and avoid a single change and look at this again for May to see if it justifies removing the low numbers which my feeling at the moment is gravitating towards.
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Finally, I've also found a home win amount of just 5 when the ave pts are 2 and an away loss tally of 3 or fewer is substandard. It doesn't happen too often but so far it's running at a 12pt loss from 5 selections.
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When away is undefeated in 10 this looks iffy and I've removed for now based on initial results and logic. Only a 55% s/r thus far although only a small loss also.
Also excluded at present is a losing streak of anything over 1 although this is in the balance for future and isn't a major discussion point right now.
Of way more importance appears to be when home lost last game and away won theirs. 18 trades, 50% s/r, 11pt loss at ave odds 3.7.
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Ave odds 1.6 against:
25 trades, 64% s/r, 7pt loss, ave lay odds 4.1
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Ave odds 1 against:
38 trades, s/r 69%, loss of 13pts at ave odds 5.3.
It should be noted that I hadn't finished updating today. 2 more losses takes to 24pts loss while Bolivar are currently losing in Bolivia so it could get even worse.