Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Hi, I've got a SHG strategy that I've been collecting data for a while now which is doing really well and I would like to start running it on a bot in test mode. I remember there being a thread somewhere with strategies on to download and import the rules into fairbot but I can't find it. Does anyone have the SHG strategy that was on there or if anyone knows how to find the page at all then it would be appreciated a lot.
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@Nick-Allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer Very interesting analysis indeed Richard, Just had a quick question:
How did you come up with the combined points average? As there is only the home ave points on the filter?
I recreated the filter and added to it. Plus I'm also manually tracking the times of their last win/draw/loss in a scope of 10.
I like to do 10 but include last seasons data.
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@Richard-Latimer Very interesting analysis indeed Richard, Just had a quick question:
How did you come up with the combined points average? As there is only the home ave points on the filter?
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@Andy-Donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer What parameters have you tweaked out of interest? I have about 1500 selections recorded now so could try your new logic over that and see if it stands up.
Unless you’ve already done your analysis using Martins data
I've added away average points is the first thing.
Then looking at the home average points it initially shows that between 2.5-2.6 these are unprofitable and 2.1 also. Small samples but my reasoning is thus.2 is the very lowest number and while not the best so far it has offered profit. I take this is as being good home teams with a decent points average which in the right circumstance will only improve or stay similar.
2.1 is just above and thus far not great.
2.2 up to 2.4 is the most common, loads of selections all doing well.
2.5-2.6 is where it's hitting a bit of a cliff. Small number of selections again and a very hit or miss set of results which if it were to continue could be opposed in the end.
2.7-3.0 is doing well. My reasoning here is these teams have got over the hump (takes a lot for this kind of average) and and are still powering through (think Villa).
Second thing I looked at is the combined points average. 4.5-4.9 is again proving very unreliable (with exception of home teams on 3 ave).
There are other things like frequency of home wins/draws etc... plus away results as well as when first win, loss, draw happened.
More fixtures tonight so we'll see what happens.
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@Richard-Latimer What parameters have you tweaked out of interest? I have about 1500 selections recorded now so could try your new logic over that and see if it stands up.
Unless you’ve already done your analysis using Martins data
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@Andy-Donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer Interested to see what you come up with.
I’ve been wrestling with this strategy for a while. I really like the idea behind it but so far my experience is that it has been very volatile and in its basic form probably isn’t scalable because of that, so for that very reason it needs some filtering somewhere, just need to isolate the right variable
After a 2nd full weekend I've managed to get it to 90% at ave odds 5.5 using quite simple filters. 75 selections so far.
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@Nick-Allan always be prepared for some drawdown
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@Richard-Latimer @Andy-Donnelly I was thinking of going live with the trading on small stakes and perhaps think about a fixed liability of say 2Pts, It will mean the P&L is reduced but if there is a drawdown your’e not as exposed.
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@Andy-Donnelly I'll report back but there's less variables to work with than overs so for that reason alone I reckon it will be quicker to find out where it can be improved.
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@Richard-Latimer Interested to see what you come up with.
I’ve been wrestling with this strategy for a while. I really like the idea behind it but so far my experience is that it has been very volatile and in its basic form probably isn’t scalable because of that, so for that very reason it needs some filtering somewhere, just need to isolate the right variable
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@Andy-Donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer I’m leaving both the games today. One of them due to odds and the other due to the away teams form and the fact that they were champions last year.
Did another deep dive of my data yesterday on this strategy which stretches back to August and if I restrict my selections to those in the odds range of 3.5 - 6, I remove a lot of the crazy fluctuations that I have seen and profit is very consistent month on month. Will monitor between now and end of Jan before formally switching to this
I'm just not keen on odds based things as these change. Pre-match stats don't. I think you eliminate many of the fluctuations by taking out the anomalys.
I'm also looking at it not restricting to current season and using last 10 games as I do with my over.
Alot of selections so I don't think it will take to long to reach a conclusion. That said, as I've learnt with my overs. Truly finding everything that works and everything that doesn't takes much longer.
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@Richard-Latimer I’m leaving both the games today. One of them due to odds and the other due to the away teams form and the fact that they were champions last year.
Did another deep dive of my data yesterday on this strategy which stretches back to August and if I restrict my selections to those in the odds range of 3.5 - 6, I remove a lot of the crazy fluctuations that I have seen and profit is very consistent month on month. Will monitor between now and end of Jan before formally switching to this
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They may both win but anyone doing these, I'd be very careful of the match in Jordan as away teams stats are equally as good if not better:
The 90 refers to a combination of home wins and draws % wise
The 10 refers to a combination of away draws and losses % wise -
The lay away really interests me as so much data already. So I'm tracking it myself with a couple of other filters put in to measure 0 up (plus a few manual things being analysed) just to see if I can find any patterns to improve.
So far, when the trade loses, it's often big numbers. Or rather big combinations of numbers (I'm looking at average points of the away teams as well).
Only a week to go on but I wanted to see if I could carry my train of thought though from the overs I've been working on the past 2 years into this. I think I can.
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@Andrew-Dobinson personal choice really, I like to keep recording simple otherwise I know I will get behind with it.
Some pros I know don't record anything, which I find mind boggling but I guess P&L is ulitmately king.
Different horses for different courses and all that.
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@Martin say your happy with one of the set and forget strats to start putting money on. Would you start recording more stats on the selections? Because your spreadsheets are very simple i was wondering what a pro would do. thanks
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@Abhijeet-Bose works fine for me, are you on chrome using this link: https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/ratings/
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Can anyone tell me why the ratings page is not opening from yesterday?
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Been doing the Lay Away for the last week or so and just checked back on my Betfair account last 7 days to show profit/loss and up £145.75.
One thing I did last night on the CD Luis Angel Firpo game was to back for another £10 at odds of 1.74 when the away team was winning 0-1 just after half time. Stats showed CD Luis had 11 shots to 2 shots and had way more possession and corners.
Ended up 3-1 to home team so a nice £19.60 profit, trusting the selection, odds and inplay stats.