Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Yes agree on back testing, will be amazing.
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Thanks for that insight
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@Andy-Donnelly this is where the back testing software would be great as you can break down past results to see trends instantly and then you can live test on small stakes
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One other thing Iβve noticed through further analysis today and worth monitoring moving forward is the total overall games played variable, which is currently set to 8.
Not sure whether others have suffered the same fate, but the lay away has tanked a bit for me in the last few weeks and wanted to see if there were any trends.
What I noticed is that in the month of October, 73% of selections had less than 16 games played. If I compare that to the great month that was had in August, just 12% of selections had total games at less than 16.
Will be interesting to see moving forward how that works as most winter leagues will naturally get to 16 games + soon enough anyway. May be a case that 8 games is too small a sample size which would make sense
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@Nick-Allan I've been looking at the gap between league position too, looking at a 3 place gap at least 4 points difference. Will up my figures to include over 3.25 also.
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@Martin Yeh had a look at your spreadsheet too to see if it correlated with my data. Looks like the SR does jump 6 percentage points in your data as well by removing under 3.25.
Think it had a very small profit under 3.25 in your data but profit per trade on those was so small that may still be worth removing. Definitely one to monitor for a bit longer tho.
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@Andy-Donnelly good work! I'm still testing all odds below 5.8 nearly a years data so I'll do a deep dive end of Jan can't wait!
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Doing a bit of analysis on the Lay Away today. The data I have is suggesting that the bottom odds should be more like 3.25 rather than 2.48.
SR jumps 6 percentage points when you remove those below 3.25.
Going to monitor until end of November and if data continues that way will make change. This change would also reduces a little, the number of selections which can be pretty crazy particularly on the weekends, which is probably not a bad thing.
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS here is a video step by step guide
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@Andy-Donnelly Yeah, I was thinking about adding an away points per game < 1 potentially. At the minute, I am taking all games that are on the normal filter and then adding a comment as to why I am/am not trading it.
It might be that the filter doesn't need it and it still works out as profit in the long run. However I will record all the results, regardless of whether I back the selection or not. From that point, I will be able to see whether my choice was right/wrong or whether a filter needs tweaking.
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@alexander-hughes Yep agreed, I do that myself. Sometimes you find selections where the odds are there to trade but just have had very little money matched and probably why they donβt pull through on the software immediately
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@Andy-Donnelly It's better to remove the odds from BTC filters anyway and filter yourself or using automation software.
The reason is that the odds change which makes the selections change. The selections via BTC won't change if it isn't comparing odds so you'll get everything that otherwise qualifies and won't have different results depending on the time you checked BTC.
Obviously if you don't have automation software to filter on odds conditions that might be a proper pain though.
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Just added myself
I have also cloned the filter and removed the criteria on home odds. Makes no sense having that. After all you are laying the away team within a certain odds range. If home odds happens to be shorter than 1.7 then donβt see a reason why you wouldnβt trade it.
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@Joe-Beeston Nice observation. I reckon itβs worth adding an away points criteria as an informational column of data I.e greater than or equal to zero. Would probably be helpful in researching
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Yes, you can't just blindly follow the filters, I made that mistake at first. Essentially the software allows you to use statistics to see if there is value in the prices. There is a chance that the statistics will give a selection, that still isn't value. Like Ryan says, it allows you to be a sniper, not scatter gunning.
Today is a prime example, on the Lay The Away there is Turkgucu vs Vilzing. The filter has pulled it through as Turkgucu are strong at home AVG > 2 pts; however if you look into the fixture, Vilzing are amazing away (Won 8 out of 10). Now the selection may win, but I am avoiding it as Vilzing are mega strong away. Shows that blindly following the selections might not work.
Also asks the question, does the away points per game need to be added, but you will only know by testing
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I am paper trading loads of systems (mainly set and forgets), and wish i had done this from day 1 when i joined could of saved an absolute fortune.
In fact i find it quite interesting recording the data ( i know boring old git lol). If feel so much relaxed knowing that i will only start trading with money once i know it is profitable over a few months.
Several of the systems have been performing well over the summer leagues but finding some are not so good so far on the winter leagues. That is why it is good not to put hard earned cash on anything until proven long term.