Set & Forget Football Strategies
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I did that but it’s not there
Profitable Member Filters
Going for a Late Goal! - Any Scoreline
Late Goal Split Stake (When drawing)
Lay the Draw at HT/Second Half
Lay the Draw at Kick-Off (Ryan's Betgreen)
Over 1.5 goals (Ryan's Split Stake)
Over 2.5 goals filter (Frode's Adapted)
Second Half Goal (Gary's SHG)
The BTC First Half Goal Strategy (Frode's Adapted)
These are all I have -
@david-baker-0 said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
Hi can’t seem to see it on my filter.Am I doing something wrong?
Click on My saved files, then click the drop down menu for profitable members filters. Any of the ones added should appear here on this list.
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Hi can’t seem to see it on my filter.Am I doing something wrong?
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Right I went through the data on this unders strategy just looking at leagues and not odds.
The unprofitable leagues that stood out for me which had a good amount of data were as follows:
Austrian Bundesliga
Dutch Eerste League
A League
Spain La Liga 2
England League 2
Romania Liga 1
Portugal Liga 2
France National
Bulgarian Parva
Turkish Super leagueWith these league removed is 1144.48 over 921 games and 58% strike rate average odds of 1.98
What I am now doing is tracking these unprofitable leagues on over 2.5gls strategy as they were all very unprofitable so may be an angle there.
Only very small amount of data at the moment but on 177 games laying the under 2.5 gls is 426 profit to 10 pound stakes with 62% strike rate with average lay odds of 1.97. I used lay as this means I didn't have to convert the odds already given on the spreadsheet.
I will now monitor both and update if anyone so wishes.
I hope I haven't repeated too much of what has already been said as I haven't read everything on this thread.
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@hayden-austin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
Sorry i wasn’t really clear, i calculated the win rate as 55% and so you’re only winning just over half the bets you take. so surely if the mean average odds taken over the 1000 trades were 1.96 which i calculated (which is just below evens), then you would not get a sustainable profit over time no? Probably doesn’t make sense cause i haven’t quite grasped all of this yet as i’m new to this:)
Check the probability chart, well an average odds of 1.81ish would break even so 1.96 is huge value in the case of a 55% strike rate.
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Sorry i wasn’t really clear, i calculated the win rate as 55% and so you’re only winning just over half the bets you take. so surely if the mean average odds taken over the 1000 trades were 1.96 which i calculated (which is just below evens), then you would not get a sustainable profit over time no? Probably doesn’t make sense cause i haven’t quite grasped all of this yet as i’m new to this:)
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@hayden-austin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@Martin Surely long term even matts under 2.5 set and forget won't work because I calculated the win rate using the spreadsheet and it only had a 55% win rate and the average odds are 1.96 (below evens) over the 1087 selections?
67pts up over 1000 selections is phenomenal, not sure what you mean? sure we don't know 100% that past performance will equal future performance, it's still being tested.
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55% is better than 1.96
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@hayden-austin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@Martin Surely long term even matts under 2.5 set and forget won't work because I calculated the win rate using the spreadsheet and it only had a 55% win rate and the average odds are 1.96 (below evens) over the 1087 selections?
might be wrong but i think it is clac based on using a point
say 1000 games
win 55% = 550 games win 0.94 (2% commission) = +517 points
Lose 45% = 450 games lose -1 = 450 Points+517 - 450 = + 67 Points ROI 6.7%
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@Martin Surely long term even matts under 2.5 set and forget won't work because I calculated the win rate using the spreadsheet and it only had a 55% win rate and the average odds are 1.96 (below evens) over the 1087 selections?
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Hi guys,
So off the back of Martin’s latest update (which I’m saving for a cold beer in the garden later)…
I’ve continued with the Unders Set & Forget that was doing so well, based on a bank of £110.00, and each bet of 1%. Appreciate that there’s always a risk it can go wrong, but for the sake of £110, I made the decision that “why not” – though would always stress the using money you can afford to lose bit!
I’ve attached my spreadsheet of results for everyone to have a look at – whereas Martin has removed some of the Leagues, I’ve kept all of them save for Australian Leagues (hence the 1113 games that were bet on!) . I had to make one adjustment of +21p, which I’ll take a margin of error…that and I’m not trawling through 1000 games!
I’ve done a ‘deep dive’ on some of the worst performing countries/leagues, and considered the Overs market on these. For the odds, I’ve used the average odds from Oddsportal.com – given that Betfair Exchange usually has better odds than most bookies, I’m fairly confident in the Overs returns! I would consider doing the ‘deep dive’ on the others, maybe when I’ve actually got a free weekend…
Overall I’ve had a 55 point return this month, or for those that like a percentage, a 50% Bank increase. Not bad at all considering it’s just set and forget, though as you can see there have been a LOT of games on. Fortunately, it’s taken me roughly 30mins-1hr each evening while the TV is on in the background so hardly strenuous work.
Happy for any feedback/input/angles I may have missed on these!
0_1648047683872_Set & Forget Results.xlsx
France (National League Only)
Average U2.5 Odds – 1.65
Average O2.5 Odds – 2.24Total U2.5 return was -£7.49, whereas in comparison the O2.5 return was £8.17. This would have resulted in an extra £15.66 (just under 16 points) on top of my total return for the month.
This was only over a total of 22 games though so need to consider variance. That being said, for the next month I’ll switch to the O2.5 market and see what the total return is.
Netherlands (All Leagues)
Eredivisie Eerste Divisie All Leagues
Average U2.5 Odds 2.06 2.32 2.24
Average O2.5 Odds 1.67 1.63 1.64The Eredivisie was -£1.09 down over 10 games, and the Eerste Divisie was -£5.87 down over 22 games. However, the average odds was lower for the O2.5 market, suggesting that the market believes that there were likely to be 2+ goals in most games.
Looking at the O2.5 market, the Eredivisie would have ended -£1.83 across the same number of games, and the Eerste Divisie would have ended £2.45 in the green.
Turkey (Super Lig)
Average U2.5 Odds – 1.96
Average O2.5 Odds – 1.96Surprisingly the average odds are exactly even to 2 D.P. in this league.
With a Win rate of just 29% (6W, 15L), the overall return this month is -£10.00.
Had I gone with the O2.5 results, I’d be looking at a positive return of £9.06 (so £19.06 on top of my monthly return).
Will be running the O2.5 market next month and seeing the difference.
England (All Leagues)
I’d started including the lower leagues (down to Isthmian PD), albeit only for 3 games.
Overall return is -£5.67 for the Unders market, and -£2.09 for the Overs market. Strike rate is sitting near enough at exactly 50% (69W, 68L).
Not nearly as happy with these Leagues as I’d thought, though welcome anyone’s input on potential angles etc. on the basis that I’ve missed something!
Kuwait (Premier League Only)
Appreciate that this is a very ‘small’ league in comparison, and liquidity isn’t great, but as I was using stakes of £1.00 / £1.10, I feel like I can at least give some input.
Average U2.5 Odds – 1.87
Average O2.5 Odds – 2.01Strike rate was 25%, though this was only on 8 games, so not willing to hang my hat on it. That being said, the returns are near enough a complete 180! Unders gave me a return this month of -£4.55, whereas the Overs resulted in £4.15.
Obviously more data needed for this League…
Spain (All Leagues)
The most interesting one this.
Total of 118 games across all leagues, with a strike rate of 54% win on the Unders (64W, 54L).
Average U2.5 Odds – 1.67
Average O2.5 Odds – 2.29The Unders returned a total of -£13.69, whereas the Overs would have returned a total of £6.59 (so I’d have had £20.28 – a smidge over 20 points on these Leagues alone). Obviously the vast difference in average odds plays in the favour of a lesser strike rate needed.
Interestingly, had I layed the Unders for the same amount (being under the 2.0 odds mark), I’d have ended with £8.42, so potentially another angle to consider.
I think I’ll run the lay Unders next month, and have the max liability as 1% - will then give me a higher return on the Wins.
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@Martin nice weekly update
Is there a thread relating to the Ratings based strategies or have I missed it?
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I knew that changing that under 1.5 for laying under will bring a better results mate. them odds are brilliant.
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@matt-wood said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@martin Thanks for another update Martin. I am sure I can speak for everyone when I say how much all your time and effort on this project is appreciated. I know for myself I have my unders (plus a couple of other things testing) and the weekends get quite tiring tracking all the data.
Keep up the good work
How very kind, thank you
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@paul-benstead-0 said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@ian-wylie Thanks Ian. Since you have an odds filter, is the time of running the filters important?
Hi Paul, I normally run the filter in the morning to pick up any games that day. There's been 2 or 3 times when I've had to do it the night before if I'm away with work.
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@martin Thanks for another update Martin. I am sure I can speak for everyone when I say how much all your time and effort on this project is appreciated. I know for myself I have my unders (plus a couple of other things testing) and the weekends get quite tiring tracking all the data.
Keep up the good work
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@ian-wylie Thanks Ian. Since you have an odds filter, is the time of running the filters important?