Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Hi Chris. Yeah thanks that's probably a good point actually check which leagues are working best, I was basically thinking what's the best way to approach over 2.5 in play. Thanks.. I'll keep checking and give it 100 and see where its at then.
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@john-malloy said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Hi guys ive been worling on a filter for over 2.5 s and f, however it has performed so far poorly after 49 games, although ive also thankfully been testing it for over 1.5 and its done great 88% so far, however I was looking at the goal times and if I was trading over 2.5 after the 20th minute until the 70th, it would be 27 winners, or scratch, and only two out and out losers, well that was just me looking at the data I have collected goal times etc,, and quickly summising which ones would have been tradeable i.e 0-0 after 20,,, however,,, if I was to approach trading over 2.5 what would be the reccomended entry point 20? and is 70 too late for example, its not enough time left to be profitable, I was thinking perhaps something like ryans SS perhaps 75% at 20 mins, and the 25% at around 55 mins? the odds on over 2.5 at 55 if 0-0 should be high enough to make it profitbal before 70 if a goal goes in shouldnt it? any thought welcome,, thanks in advance.
Have you considered cashing out or removing liability on the 1st goal.
Also, 49 games not really enough of a sample size - first thing I'd do is eliminate leagues that are poor performers but 49 games not enough to get a true picture. The strike rite would increase significantly
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Hi guys ive been worling on a filter for over 2.5 s and f, however it has performed so far poorly after 49 games, although ive also thankfully been testing it for over 1.5 and its done great 88% so far, however I was looking at the goal times and if I was trading over 2.5 after the 20th minute until the 70th, it would be 27 winners, or scratch, and only two out and out losers, well that was just me looking at the data I have collected goal times etc,, and quickly summising which ones would have been tradeable i.e 0-0 after 20,,, however,,, if I was to approach trading over 2.5 what would be the reccomended entry point 20? and is 70 too late for example, its not enough time left to be profitable, I was thinking perhaps something like ryans SS perhaps 75% at 20 mins, and the 25% at around 55 mins? the odds on over 2.5 at 55 if 0-0 should be high enough to make it profitbal before 70 if a goal goes in shouldnt it? any thought welcome,, thanks in advance.
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@chris-osborne said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@terry-cooke maybe paper trade for a bit and see what works for you?
That's what I'm planning to do, but wanted to figure out if to lay at £10 or have the liability at £10 so I can get an accurate reflection of profits, but now that I'm thinking about it, its probably best to track the data for both.
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@terry-cooke maybe paper trade for a bit and see what works for you?
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@chris-osborne Thanks Chris. That sounds sensible to me now you put it like that.
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@terry-cooke said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Afternoon all!
With Tomasz Lay U1.5 £10 stakes, when placing on Betfair is £10 the backers stake or is it £10 total liability?
Personal preference - all my lay trades are at liability but others lay to stake
The advantage of laying to liability is you reduce your potential losses but obviously your winnings are lower. I personally prefer to protect my bankroll which is why I lay to liability. Aill always take the option of winning £5 but only losing £10 instead of losing £50 but only winninf £10 exc commission
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Afternoon all!
With Tomasz Lay U1.5 £10 stakes, when placing on Betfair is £10 the backers stake or is it £10 total liability?
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@ross-love said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@andy-donnelly I was down also on the 1.5. I think Martin must have missed off the results from Saturday the 18th by mistake as they aren’t on the spreadsheet.
I can't track every day, sometimes I have to have some semblance of a life
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@andy-donnelly I was down also on the 1.5. I think Martin must have missed off the results from Saturday the 18th by mistake as they aren’t on the spreadsheet.
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@andrew-bannister Yep agreed! I don’t let any of them go in play if not matched beforehand, however in the morning if I see one of the selections only a few ticks out at say 1.22/1.23/1.24, I will queue a bet at 1.25! They do often get matched pre kick off.
I had a marginally negative month on this last month but as I said, this should even itself out over a long period of time.
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Just seen the latest results video. I was surprised that over 1.5 goals was up as I was actually down for February by a couple points. I’ve been sticking to the parameters 1.25-1.35, has the filter changed in the last couple months, or is there something else I may have done wrong?
It does depend on the time of day with this. I've noticed today for example, there is only 1 selection in the email but there is 6 or 7 on the actual filter....and also on the results sheet the bets do not tally with email selections sometimes. So I think it's down to you what you back. It's a brilliant filter so it will even out over time anyway.
Last month I think I had 5 more selections than on the results sheet with 1 more loss than results sheet. -
@dave-tancock Do you set your pre-match bets to stay running after kick-off so they get matched?
Mine started performing better when I set it to cancel the bet if it's not matched before kick off
edit: up +4.02 pts for Feb
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@andy-donnelly thanks mate. Good to know it’s not just me
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I was also slightly down for last month as well. I think the differences is all down to the time of the day that the selections are placed as the odds will change over the course of the day.
Hopeful it will even itself out in the long run!
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Just seen the latest results video. I was surprised that over 1.5 goals was up as I was actually down for February by a couple points. I’ve been sticking to the parameters 1.25-1.35, has the filter changed in the last couple months, or is there something else I may have done wrong?
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@andrew-bannister said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Finally happened, had first profitable month after starting in November. Was only about £10 up using £1 stakes but it’s a start.
Well done mate. I did the same for feb, using £10 stakes on set & forget strategies and £1 stakes on testing strategies of my own I finished £87 up. I learnt a great lesson too....after the first week I was already £80 up, but the second week I lost £60. In the past I would have changed things up at this point, thinking I had got it all wrong.....but I stuck to the plan, recorded everything I traded, and lo and behold....some profit
I stopped putting impromptu trades on too, every trade was from a filter.yes love this!
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Finally happened, had first profitable month after starting in November. Was only about £10 up using £1 stakes but it’s a start.
well done mate great news!