Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@dave-tancock
I started Martins over 1.5 goals on the 12 February this year and I am in profit. I don't know about points because I bet 2% of what's ever in my bank for that day. I must admit, it has been a bit of a yo-yo but it's been well worth. I'd give you may profit but I did read that Ryan doesn't want people to post earing's in the forum. And I don't want to upset the boss...HahaI've developed my own easy to enter LibreOffice spread sheet, if you'd like a copy.
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@dave-tancock can comment mate i dont use the straegy, i just found it was quite labour intensive for the return. Id recommend tom u1.5g lay that been very profitbale for me over the last 3 months . Less trades means you stand less chance of missing selections. You just lay u1.5G market id recommend liability of double your stake, thats what i do. Ave odds are around 2.8.
Just focus on one strategy and learn all about it before moving on to another
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@dan-mackinnon ok great, will compare this against my stats since the start of the year
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@andy-donnelly I've taken this from the Football Trading P&L in the OP above. So from February 22 up to the 19th of this month.
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@dan-mackinnon Thanks for this, what period of time is this for out of interest?
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I went through the data for Martin's O1.5 and have listed the nations and leagues from least to most profitable. Just be aware that some nations/ leagues only have a handful of results.
I don't know how much use this is to anyone but it'll be fun to compare this with the football backtesting
Nations
-26.31 Italy
-24.64 England
-24.47 Denmark
-23.96 Spain
-18.18 Belgium
-17.16 Austria
-12.56 Australia
-10 Bolivia
-10 South Korea
-6.08 Scotland
3.04 Poland
5.05 China
6.44 Switzerland
15.55 Norway
20.97 USA
22.79 Croatia
24.58 Paraguay
25.39 Japan
28.34 Sweden
28.75 Germany
29.13 Turkey
38.01 Czech Republic
43.35 France
68.41 NetherlandsLeagues
-28.17 Spain Laliga
-26.31 Italy Serie A
-21.79 Denmark 1st Division
-21.24 England League One
-20 France Ligue 2
-19.64 England Premier League
-16.27 England Championship
-12.56 Australia A-league
-11.26 Germany Bundesliga
-11.1 Belgium Jupiler Pro League
-10 Austria 2. Liga
-10 Bolivia Division Profesional
-10 South Korea K League 1
-9.96 Poland Ekstraklasa
-7.3 Germany 2. Bundesliga
-7.16 Austria Bundesliga
-7.08 Belgium 1B Pro League
-6.08 Scotland Championship
-2.68 Denmark Superliga
1.79 Switzerland Super League
2.54 Norway Obos-ligaen
4.21 Spain Laliga2
4.34 Japan J2 League
4.65 Switzerland Challenge League
5.05 China Super League
5.77 Sweden Allsvenskan
7.91 Croatia 1. Hnl
13 Poland Division 1
13.01 Norway Eliteserien
14.88 Croatia HNL
20.97 USA Mls
21.05 Japan J1 League
22.57 Sweden Superettan
23.27 Netherlands Eredivisie
24.58 Paraguay Primera Division
29.13 Turkey Super Lig
32.51 England League Two
38.01 Czech Republic 1. Liga
45.14 Netherlands Eerste Divisie
47.31 Germany 3. Liga
63.35 France Ligue 1 -
@andy-donnelly League filtering is deffo a positive. I have 2 strategies running, Lay The Draw and Lay Over 3.5, prior to League filtering they were both at 81% Strike Rate. I started League filtering about 6 weeks ago, picking only matches where historically the League had a minimum of 80% Strike Rate for the relevant strategy. In that 6 weeks my strike rates have increased to 93% and 91% respectively.
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@dave-tancock I think league filtering is the answer. I’m also likely to have 3 loss making months in a row but it’s pretty small losses that could all be made up in a weekend. I did some league analysis and saw that the English league one had a woeful time at the start of the year, I believe that has now been removed from the filter but I’d be in a decent profit for this strategy if I hadn’t traded that league all year. Worth you reviewing the performance against leagues as you may spot something similar, that may not be a change to the strategy that hasn’t already been made but could increase your confidence in the strategy nonetheless if you can pinpoint trends in the losses
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@dave-tancock it’s had a rough run.
I can’t guarantee it will pick back up.
So really it’s up to you if you carry on with it.
If you wish to improve it maybe go through each match and think which ones you would trade?
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I feel like I’m missing something, I started in November using martins over 1.5 goals, I’ve yet to have a profitable month. November I was maybe to trigger happy. December/January I know we’re hit and miss for everyone. But last month was down 3-4 points and unless tomorrow does very well this month will be down a couple points as well. I only trade what appears on the software and is within the odds parameters, yet I’m down on the strategy each month when others are up. I know some of it will be things like time of day you look at the odds matcher etc. has anyone got any suggestions how to improve this, or is the general consensus that this is a poor run and it will pick up? Sorry for the whinge.
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@nick-allan hi nick im happy to get involved with a fhg thread don't mind setting one up or just posting here with ideas etc
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@nick-allan could just chat here?
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Are there any good FHG threads on the forum? i have a FHG strategy that I’m running and I’m looking for some ways to perfect it. If there isn’t a FHG thread would anyone be intrested in me starting one?
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@greg-mitchell cheers greg :thumbs_up:
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@nick-allan Correct
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@greg-mitchell said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan I am assuming that you mean for Month 2, 15 Selections £11 Profit and £165 Stake (15 Bets @ £11) so £11/£165 = 6.7% ROI
Overall would be £21 Profit, £265 Stake = 7.9% ROI
Ah haaaa think im there so you combined calculation is as follows:
Total profit (2 months) / Total staked (2 month) x 100 = ROI for the 2 months, is that right?
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I think that you will get different ROI based on the actual money staked versus basing the ROI on the stake being 1% of your bank.
Over a large set of figures the difference will be much smaller but over a small set the difference could be quite large.
You can play around with the numbers using this spreadsheet to get a feel for it or you could incorporate both calculations in your ownhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H5a1uLNSliArc8fDm_fpIpa1LEDsdxZPzSYTTtex9bI/edit?usp=sharing
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@nick-allan I am assuming that you mean for Month 2, 15 Selections £11 Profit and £165 Stake (15 Bets @ £11) so £11/£165 = 6.7% ROI
Overall would be £21 Profit, £265 Stake = 7.9% ROI
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@greg-mitchell ah i see so if i did ROI for each month and then i can do a calulations of oversall ROI based on the amount of selections per month.
so what would be the caluclation if i had the following:
Month One - 10 selections £10 Profit, £100 Stake = 10% ROI
Month Two - 15 selections £11 Profit, £110 Stake = 10% ROI -
@nick-allan No the ROI for both months is:
Month One - £10 Profit, £100 Stake = 10% ROI
Month Two - £11 Profit, £110 Stake = 10% ROIMonth One plus Month Two = £21 Profit, £210 Stake = 10%
