Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@nick-allan No the ROI for both months is:
Month One - £10 Profit, £100 Stake = 10% ROI
Month Two - £11 Profit, £110 Stake = 10% ROIMonth One plus Month Two = £21 Profit, £210 Stake = 10%
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@martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan as Greg has said ROI is interest compared to stake so you would just make sure the total stake was correct in the excel sum
@Martin @Greg-Mitchell But if you increased the stake would that not alter the total ROI inaccurately?
So ROI is Profit divided by Total Stake (for Backs) or Total Liability (for Lays)
Say Jan your stake was £10, so if you had 10 Back Bets with a stake of £10 and made a profit of £10, your ROI would be £10 divided by (10 X £10) so 10%
In feb you wanted to increaser that to £11, would you just change the stake calculation?
Using the downloaded spreadsheet as an example , so you would just change the cell below to 11 instead of 10, is that right?
so if you had 10 Back Bets with a stake of £11 and made a profit of £11, your ROI would be £11 divided by (10 X £11) so 10%
Does that mean that ROI for both months is then 20%? -
@nick-allan as Greg has said ROI is interest compared to stake so you would just make sure the total stake was correct in the excel sum
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@nick-allan ROI is Profit divided by Total Stake (for Backs) or Total Liability (for Lays), so if you had 10 Back Bets with a stake of £10 and made a profit of £10, your ROI would be £10 divided by (10 X £10) which is 10%.
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Good morning guys, I have a question in regards to calculating ROI when your stakes change due to compounding. So say I have a Bank of £1000 pounds and I utilise 1% of that bank for every trade, so the stake would be £10 pounds per trade, let's say that month the strategy did particularly well and made £100.00 so the bank is now £1,100 pounds and the 1% is now going to be £11 per trade. How do I calculate the ROI if the stake changes? So the calculations that are on the football set and forget trading sheets all based on £10 stakes which is absolutely fine, but how would you go about calculating ROI if the stakes changed based on the performance of the strategy, if you see what I mean? Is it possible to do it? or would you have to calculate and ROI on a month by month basis based on a stake increasing or decreasing (this will be based on the amount in the bank and % you decide to trade with). Does that make sense?
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@andy-donnelly fab andy, keep me posted still think this is a viable strategy, just needs tweaks, i think taking saturday out had an effect on profit and ROI?
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@nick-allan I’ve been tracking the 85 per cent version of the u3.5 strat.
Still early days as only have the data since the start of the year, but so far:
65 trades
51 wins
78% SR
+£30.91 (to £10 stakes)This month looks like being a pretty much scratch month but will update later this week.
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Good afternoon guys, I've been away the last three weeks, dealing with some personal issues and now back I just wanted to ask a question in regards to the under 3.5 goals strategy. I know that there was some testing on teams that were U3.5 goals 85% in last 10 results for both home and away teams as a selection criterion I'm just wondering if this revise strategy is working? I can't quite remember who had suggested using it so apologies for that.
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@dave-tancock yes
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@terry-heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@martin-walker said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Mines gone through a few tweaks so far and the current version is 250 games 83.5% fhg from kick off. Now i need another 100 games with the odds tracked and to see if the strike rate holds up to some tweaking and league removal.
Are you recording the goal times by any chance?
ive started to record goal times on the ones im paper trading but there hasnt been enough selections yet, the reason im doing this is to see if drip stakes would be more advantagous, looking at a 15, 25 and 35m stakes, you would be surprised how many late FHG you get and the odds as very attractive. I do a SHG spilt stake and when i get late goals on that its chhhhhhheerrrrrrr ching!!!!
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@craig-vaulks said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Is it just me or are there alot of people testing FHG strategies?
I am also in the process of testing one. We should maybe start a thread to compare notes. I currently have FT score 0-0 set in my filter to odds under 11 which gives me odds around 1.5/6 for a goal. Which I think is on the higher end.set one up craig im happy to contibute to it, im still paper trading the old FHG that use to be in the profit members filter and with a few tweask i think itm would work. let me know when you set one up ill keep an eye out for one :thumbs_up:
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@terry-heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Does anyone have a list of the selections from the Under 3.5 Backs strategy that is being tested for the following dates so that I can update my spreadsheet?
18th Feb
25th Feb
4th March
11th MarchThanks in advance
hi terry yeah i have the everyone apart from the 11th march, dm me an ill email them to you
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@david-baker-0 said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin Really liked the last video you did about odds for set and forgets and was really intrigued about the lay the away team strat you’re testing.Don’t suppose you could let us know the filters you’re using,would love to have a little tinker with it.
been paper trading it for 4 months happy to share results with you, dm me
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@conor-medlyn said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
What are people's opinions on this idea. Following these set and forget strategies on Smarkets I think would actually be more profitable than Betfair in certain situations. Having Oddsmonkey gives 0% commission on Smarkets, and, on many of the selections the odds you would be targeting and getting on Betfair are available on Smarkets. That extra profit would add up over the course of a month. Oddsmonkey costs £25 a month, but if you're bankroll and stakes were fairly high you would more than make up for this in the extra profit from no commission. In play strategies would make Smarkets a no go as the odds in play are often weak, but in terms of set and forget I reckon this would be a decent idea. They would put commission on you eventually if you hit the profit boundaries, which I think are 25K in previous 12 months, but while the 0% lasts I reckon Smarkets would be a genuine great option alongside Betfair. I just thought I'd put that out there for anyine who doesn't know.
also doesnt have the premium charge, but i think you need to be a big hitter to get charged, dont know if the pros on this channel get subjected to this charge?
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@terry-cooke said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@john-malloy said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Is or has anyone been working on their own set and forgets, that could potentially be added to the list? if they passed Martins seal of approval of course,,
I started to test a FHG filter last year and started retesting again the other day. Solar its at 72% with only 69 selections so far. not put any money on it just looking at what would win and what wouldn't. I will eventually look at dripping stakes in to get better odds value.
hi terry, is this the FHG filter that used to be on the profitable members filters or one of your own? ive been paper testing the old profit filters one and have to say its been performing ok, i think with a bit of teaking it might work
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@martin is that if they aren’t matched nearer to kick off?
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@dave-tancock don’t be afraid to move them later on if need be, you usually always get some more ticks
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I’ve tried asking for prices on Betfair for the first time. Fingers crossed it pays off
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Is it me or is this a really quiet week for the set and forget strategies. Can’t remember a Friday only having one option before? Is it due to the international games on at the minute?
Yes very quiet around the international break , a lot of leagues are suspended during this period. I have a couple of my matches on a BTTS strategy i am paper trading atm and that's it.
I am currently just trading the set and forget systems have done since my post on my blog a couple of weeks ago. I feel so much less stressed doing the set and forgets and just paper trading a few other systems, i wish i had done this ages ago and listened to the advice.
With what i am doing now gives me opportunity to have a life outside work and trading, sat there on a Saturday for hours trading from my filters to end up with little or no reward is such a waste of time and then effects your discipline.
I Will look at my filters tomorrow and see if the set and forgets have any selections and place my trades, then look at the paper trading selections and makes notes and then i am off out first time in ages for a jolly boys football away day (will be feeling the pain Sunday)
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Is it me or is this a really quiet week for the set and forget strategies. Can’t remember a Friday only having one option before? Is it due to the international games on at the minute?
International break will have that effect! Also I don't like trading league games during them.
