New Strategy
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@dan-mackinnon said in New Strategy:
@lee-woodman fair enough. That was the strategy that stood out to me. If you have goal times have you considered a late goals strategy? How many goals come after 75 or 80 minutes. You might want to double check but a standard average I’ve seen is evens at 75 and 3.0 (or lay 1.5) at 80 minutes
My main filter is good for late goals and thats what i trade; 80% from 60', 68% from 70' and just under 50% from 80' so i was hoping for something other than SH or late goals
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@matt-wood I was thinking something like O2.5, although its not a market ive studied too much. 41% of games which are 0-0 at 30' go O2.5 so if i could get odds over 2.5 then it should be profitable. When i first started trading, i had a strategy of backing O2.5 just after KO then either cashing out if 0-0 at HT or letting it run if thered been a goal. I might explore that again as it doesnt need a massive SR
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@james-rome I did consider FH goal but so many of the goals are scored early, in the first 10 minutes, so id either have to take really low odds or miss out on loads. 53% have a FHG from 25-45 so based on that i think id need a higher SR
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@lee-woodman fair enough. That was the strategy that stood out to me. If you have goal times have you considered a late goals strategy? How many goals come after 75 or 80 minutes. You might want to double check but a standard average I’ve seen is evens at 75 and 3.0 (or lay 1.5) at 80 minutes
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@chris-osborne The split stake figure is based on 1 goal between 30-70’ if 0-0 at 30’. The O1.5 figure is based on the game going O1.5 if 0-0 at 30’
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I not got the stats to hand but dont 33% of FH end 0-0 so FHG could be a way forward at 75.2%
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@lee-woodman Fair enough, in that case what's causing the drop off from the 79.1% to the O1.5 at 30 mins to 71.4%?
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@chris-osborne Sorry I should specify, the split stake I’ve quoted is based on the same strategy as Ryan’s, so that’s entry at 30’ if 0-0. Cutting out a few leagues gets this up to 84%
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@lee-woodman That puts a different spin on things, as you say the the split stake looks encouraging although there is a drop off if you go to split stake after 30 mins. Could you do something with that and the O1.5 although guess your getting close to Ryan's split stake
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@dan-mackinnon I have all the goal times, first goal, first SH goal, last goal etc so can analyse it from a number of angles. I can also break it down monthly and by league. A lot of these already appear on my main strategy which is based on SH goals so I was hoping to find something which is different to LCS in the SH
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SHG definitely looks interesting. Do you have a record of goal times?
Chris is right about odds at HT, but what if you LCS to win 1 point at a set entry? Queue up at 4.0 to win 1 and risk 3pts if it doesn’t happen. With that SR you’ll get huge results. Even if you queued at 5.0 it’ll still be good. The only downside is it’s potentially a lot if you hit a bad spell. Do you have monthly results?
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The SHG stats look interesting to me but your never going to get odds much above 1.3, at HT but there looks to be a lot of potential here in a number of different ways as you refine things depending on what your looking for
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Morning Lee.
Some really interesting numbers there generally!
I have been tracking data for a set and forget O2.5. I get very few games come up on it and have a 60% SR which I was thinking may be promising. So your data here with more games and a higher SR looks good for that! For ref I have been loosely tracking odds (not in great detail) and have an average of 1.79.
