If you don't believe in stats and patience
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Watch the movie MONEYBALL. Its proof that stats are more important then knowledge and experience.
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@dave-hayes Its a trading software, it helps you place the trades faster than the Betfair website.
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@paul-keighley said in If you don't believe in stats and patience:
@john-folan said in If you don't believe in stats and patience:
Best thing any of you can do is get yourselves on an excel course(plenty on youtube) and learn how to manipulate data. Start with Pivot Tables. Absolute game changer.
Do you have any particular recommendations for this John and are we talking weeks of learning to become semi competent or is it pretty simple in your opinion? I was considering paying anyone competent at spreadsheets to just build me one if it would be a lot of time and effort to learn myself?!
Essentially after something pretty basic like I assume most people here use, Just a sheet recording loads of data from filters for a particular strat and the match result/goals etc, and then after a few months of data gathering being able to filter Strike Rates by Country/League/Each stat etc and make it easy to see at a glance how to best tweak an existing strat or come up with a new one to start with.
I agree with @John-Folan about learning spreadsheets, although disagree about pivot tables personally hate them there are better alternatives such as Power Query now called Get and Transform
I work in the Finance Dept of a large multi national conglomerate mainly analysing data from a Manufacturing point of view in other words I spend 40+ hours a week staring at spreadsheets.
There are numerous ways of doing the same thing in excel. A few of the resources I'd recommend on You Tube are as follows - word of warning alot of these videos are trying to get you to sign up to there courses but there is a lot of good content all the same: -
Chandoo
Myonlinetraininghub
MrExcel.com
MyExcelonline
Leila GharaniThe last one doesn't just focus on excel but all Microsoft Office Products
These are in no particular order - the top two focus more on data visualisation whereas the final three are are more generic.
I did try and post links but didn't work as intended
My suggestion would be find one you like and focus on that
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@paul-keighley Evening Paul.
I was the most basic of basic with spreadsheets before I came here. I have got to a pretty decent level in a couple of months of googling and watching clips from vids.
2 months might sound like a lot, but I will say that this was a very un focused 2 months. with dedicated time committed to it, and without the baggage of my potatoe brain, you could probably get somewhere meaningful in 2-3 weeks. I would say that I am glad I learnt myself instead of getting one built. It means now I can change it, as needs become apparent, because I understand it. -
@john-folan said in If you don't believe in stats and patience:
Best thing any of you can do is get yourselves on an excel course(plenty on youtube) and learn how to manipulate data. Start with Pivot Tables. Absolute game changer.
Do you have any particular recommendations for this John and are we talking weeks of learning to become semi competent or is it pretty simple in your opinion? I was considering paying anyone competent at spreadsheets to just build me one if it would be a lot of time and effort to learn myself?!
Essentially after something pretty basic like I assume most people here use, Just a sheet recording loads of data from filters for a particular strat and the match result/goals etc, and then after a few months of data gathering being able to filter Strike Rates by Country/League/Each stat etc and make it easy to see at a glance how to best tweak an existing strat or come up with a new one to start with.
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@ryan said in If you don't believe in stats and patience:
@wayne-ironside Huge fairbot fan here!
Yeah I read the forum, saw your comment and tried it. Use it for all my trades now.
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@wayne-ironside Huge fairbot fan here!
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@martin said in If you don't believe in stats and patience:
@wayne-ironside said in If you don't believe in stats and patience:
I trade purely on stats now and use Bots to prevent my indiscipline. Although I'm down overall so what do I know. Moving in the right direction now!! Only taken 18 months!!
Well the moving in the right direction is the main thing, good to hear. What bot do you use? I need to get into automation esp when Roz goes back to work in a couple of months and I've got a baby here all day!
Fairbot is the one I use, tried betfair bot manager too. I like both, but fairbot was easier for using different strategies. Also support really helpful and designed a bot for me when I was struggling with it to start.
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@richard-latimer I will, I know the name through other stuff I have been reading and like what he does, its certainly the way forward and I know Brentford Use Data Profiling specifically for their team, plus my club AFC Wimbledon have just started to do it.
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@dave-hayes read up on Billy Bean. Pretty much b the beginning of stats use like it is not for all sports.
Wenger was a massive fan at Arsenal and it's where statdna was derived from.
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@stephen-oleary I have bookmarked Moneyball to watch. Thanks for the tip
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@wayne-ironside said in If you don't believe in stats and patience:
I trade purely on stats now and use Bots to prevent my indiscipline. Although I'm down overall so what do I know. Moving in the right direction now!! Only taken 18 months!!
Well the moving in the right direction is the main thing, good to hear. What bot do you use? I need to get into automation esp when Roz goes back to work in a couple of months and I've got a baby here all day!
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I trade purely on stats now and use Bots to prevent my indiscipline. Although I'm down overall so what do I know. Moving in the right direction now!! Only taken 18 months!!
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@stephen-oleary great film
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Best thing any of you can do is get yourselves on an excel course(plenty on youtube) and learn how to manipulate data. Start with Pivot Tables. Absolute game changer.
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@Martin the people who disagree are fools. You may make a profit it the short term not following stats, but over months and years its proven from the biggest sports teams to the biggest companies. Stats and data will almost always give you a winning edge as long as you stay true to your strategies and money management.
History is the future
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I agree, who was it who said 'There are people who agree with me and then there are people that are just wrong?'
What I have always tried to do is not be a man with a hammer looking for nails. Not every nail needs hammering, always make it about the person and their goals. But yes, stats are the future!
