Fortune Favours the Bold
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@David-Milligan @Andy-Donnelly I'm sure you guys have more experience trading horses than I do. So just out of curiosity what sort of criteria would you say does have an impact?
Sometimes I think that when trying to trade the favourite, but the favourite is just who has been betting on it. Or it's been hyped in media or by bookies.
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@Andy-Donnelly this is the reason I don't get the DOB strategy - the only selection criteria if I recall correctly is a horse between 2 and 7 years old within a particular price range. I can't rationalise why that would mean they are more likely to DOB so just skipping it
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Here we go, let's get back into it with some O1.5 S&F
Today's Trades
Linfield vs Glentoran
Larne vs CrusadersSod's law they'll lose! If I can figure out how to use BFBM I'll get them on as SHG too.
My rules are to queue up at 1.35 to win 1pt.
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@Dan-MacKinnon Yeh good point on the discipline front.
I am watching lay the 3rd fav with interest. Only reason I haven’t started trading that one yet is that I am not fully behind the concept. You are not backing or laying a specific trait in a horse with that strategy or even really finding horses that are being over or under valued by the market. It almost feels like a strategy based on a statistical anomaly which makes me worry that it’s due for a big down turn at some stage. So I’ve decided to be a bit more cautious and see how it goes for the rest of the year before being confident enough to start trading with small stakes
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@Andy-Donnelly funnily enough it was Lay the Beaten Fav. I started trading it roughly this time last year. It helped 10x my bank in 6 months, but greed, overstaking and blind optimism meant that I became somewhat complacent and it's now back to where it started.
The trouble with the horse racing backtesting is that it's easy to see how much you could make over a 2 year period and what % each month to expect. As a result, I think it's easy to become less disciplined so don't always spot when things go wrong. With football it was commonly agreed you'd spend 3 months forward testing and you look out for losing streaks, etc. because you've experienced them personally. It can be frustrating because you feel like you're losing money by not getting involved, but when you find a strategy that works I think that's a great feeling.
I'm going to approach the horse racing again with what would be enjoyable. Things to consider - risk vs odds, strike rate, frequency of trades, fixed vs variable return/ risk. From there just forward test for a while on micro stakes and see what is "enjoyable".
Whilst doing that, I'll utilise what we have here. If both Martin and Ryan are doing the Lay 3rd Fav then there must be something to it! Another thing I realised was "Don't make things harder than they need to be". Take the low hanging fruit
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@Dan-MacKinnon I love Japan, had great time when I was there.
What Horse racing strategies were you doing out of interest? I have been struggling with horse racing but think it may stem from my desire to make the lay the beaten fav work. Currently testing other HR strategies using odds ranges that are much lower in the hope I can find a strategy that is sustainable.
Good luck on the football again btw!!
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Reflections on 2023 (So far)
I've recently returned from 3 weeks in Japan and I must admit, I was somewhat unsure if I would like it, but all my doubts were blown away and it is an amazing place.I had some interesting thoughts so bear with me while I try to explain without sounding like some hippie!
Before I left I decided to do two things:
- Go 100% hands free and let BFBM run my trades and I won't check at all
- Read the novel Musashi about the legendary Japanese swordsman
The reason for mentioning Musashi is because I learnt 2 Japanese terms Ikigai which is a word that describes why you wake up in the morning. You could see it as your purpose or path, whether that is in work or a hobby.
The other term is mono no aware which can be translated as empathy to all things, and underlines that everything is a fleeting moment.
Finally, Musashi references insects throughout the book as distractions. This makes more sense now I've been to Japan and there are dragonflies, cicadas, spiders, etc. everywhere!So back to trading, when I returned I checked my account and it had struggled big time. Left unchecked it has halved over 6 weeks.
This past year I've basically stopped football trading and switched to horse racing. I really wanted to do well so I threw everything into it. Early doors things went very well, then exceedingly well! Then bad, then very bad and now back to square one. I got annoyed with myself because I made silly mistakes with staking, greed and thinking that if I removed myself everything would magic itself to winning ways.
It's easy to get annoyed and I even thought of throwing in the towel. But these are the "fleeting moments" and we are always learning. If I sat and got upset about what's already happened I'll probably miss the next opportunity that was coming along. Also, the thing that got me believing I could be a serious trader was the same thing that got me back to square one. The difference now is that I know it's capable.
It's easy to get distracted by the losing trades, the latest trends, or the shiny new software. But like those insects, we'll never get anywhere if we allow every bee or ant we see to distract us throughout the day. Instead, I realised I needed to find my ikigai, I obviously joined BTC for a reason and really enjoy sport.
I remembered the opening post of this thread. I have proof that my SHG/ O1.5 strategy worked but I abandoned it for something flashier. So I've decided I'll go back to trading this because ultimately, it was fun! In addition, I'll mess about with the horse racing, but try to find something fun.
I realised I was in such a rush to get to "black belt" status or spend my imaginary winnings that I forgot to enjoy the process. I was so distracted by the insects I strayed from the path.
So I'm back now, I'll trade what I enjoy and will try to make it fun (hopefully for everyone). I'll do my best not to worry about the end goal and just focus on getting better each day. Because, there is no guarantee of the end goal, and if we don't pay attention now, everything will get lost as another fleeting moment.
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@Martin it's good. It's up in London which is fun (so far). It's still construction-based work but just on much bigger projects so takes a lot to get my head around different procedures, etc. That's why I wanted to take a break from trading so I don't have any distractions.
Luckily I was able to use the trading bank I'd built up to pay for work expenses, travel, etc. It does mean I'm starting with a much smaller bank but if I'm letting automation take full control maybe that's not such a bad thing!
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@Dan-MacKinnon annoying but doesn't matter long term like you say
how's the job? -
I recently took a break from trading because I've just moved to a new job. I wanted to give it my focus and can return to this as a hobby. It appears I timed it terribly, I ended on a bad May and skipped a decent June/ July. Oh well, it's all about the long game.
My Fairbot subscription ended, so I've switched to BFBM. I've also reset my bank to what I started with and want to use automation. My plan is to let the trades run and I'll check vs the backtest at the weekend and if any changes need making. I'll put down any tips and guides I come across here.
The ultimate goal would be to have hands-free trading!
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@dan-mackinnon that's great then as really you would have done fine
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@martin break even, maybe a slight profit.
It is frustrating but I know I’m not the first and won’t be the last to make a mistake. It’s also something I’ll thoroughly check going forward.
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@dan-mackinnon how would it have done with the mistake?
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April Review
I had a bit of a nightmare this month. I was using a new VPS and recreated my fairbot strategies but forgot to put an end time. I ended up losing a lot more trades than I should have and as a result, my bank took a bit of a pounding. Because you can't ratchet losses it took a lot to bring it back up to something more reasonable.On the plus side, my BFBM experiment worked well and despite a really poor start it rallied at the end.
Overall, -30pts!
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I've got good news and bad news.
Good news, BFBM and Fairbot lined up together and both fired as expected.
Bad news, the trade lostOh well, today is a busy day so it'll be a real test of it's capability
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@dan-mackinnon Sounds like a smart move.
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I think I'm going to draw a close to the £100 challenge as I'm looking at new ideas and not really giving it my full attention.
I wanted to explore the automation a bit further and trial BF Bot Manager. I've still got Fairbot so will post the comparison of my trades here.
I might pick up the challenge later in the year.
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@dan-mackinnon you should be fine now I reckon, couple more wins
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5/5 yesterday +£6. Bank is £57. Most importantly, Palace actually won a game!!
Today's Trades
2023-04-02 14:25 Ascot William Cody - Win £3
2023-04-02 15:20 Doncaster Gisburn - Win £1.50
2023-04-02 15:55 Doncaster Bucephalus - Win £1
2023-04-02 17:20 Ascot Rocky Man - Win £1 -
@dan-mackinnon wow that's amazing well done!
