Fortune Favours the Bold
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Back to winning ways 3/3. Bank £32.
Quite a few today
12/02/2023 14:10 Navan The Big Doyen - Win £1
12/02/2023 14:40 Navan Delta Work - Win £1
12/02/2023 15:00 Exeter Rose Of Arcadia - Win £1
12/02/2023 15:10 Navan Legacy Of Dreams - Wait as it's currently quite high out but if it looks reasonable could help reduce the liability on Cave Court
12/02/2023 15:10 Navan Cave Court - Win £0.50
12/02/2023 16:10 Navan Krabat - Win £1 -
@dan-mackinnon I knew it was coming and it finally happened. 2 consecutive losers. The last race, rewired moved to 2nd and the 3rd favourite went on to win which my bot picked up.
As for our trades 2/3 so -£8. Could really do with another decent streak to get things moving back in the right directions again.
Todays trades are all on the 15:35 at Newbury
- Rubauh
- Icare Allen
- Master Chewy
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Here we go! Back underway with some trades.
I thought I'd double check my selections vs the daily BTC. I then checked those against Racing Post to see the forecast odds. Probably overthinking it now but I've put trades on some I feel comfortable with and just waiting to see what happens with the other two.
10/02/2023 14:00 Kempton Revasser - Win £1
10/02/2023 14:00 Kempton Pass Me By - Win £1
10/02/2023 14:20 Bangor-On-Dee Bretney - Win £0.50
10/02/2023 14:50 Bangor-On-Dee Rewired - Avoid. It's drifted out from 2nd but RP forecast it'll be joint favourite -
It's been a quiet few days with the weather and lack of selections. So to give an update from Monday's trades we had 4/5 so a £6 loss bringing the bank down to £36.50
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Back to it today
Today's trades
06/02/2023 13:20 Fontwell Follow That - Win £0.50
06/02/2023 14:45 Carlisle Ebonello - Win £2
06/02/2023 16:15 Carlisle Aire Valley Lad - Win £0.50
06/02/2023 16:30 Fontwell Monjules - Win £1
06/02/2023 16:30 Fontwell Gorcombe Moonshine - Win £1 -
5/5 yesterday which means the bank has nearly recovered from that loss within a day. £42.50
Nothing today
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3/4 yesterday so a £6.50 loss. A bit like last month we're getting those losing trades out the way early
Bank now at £36.50 but still keeping £10 liabilityToday's trades
04/02/2023 13:35 Wetherby Jetoile - Win £1.50
04/02/2023 14:20 Sandown Monmiral - Win £2
04/02/2023 14:55 Sandown Party Business - Win £0.50
04/02/2023 15:23 Wetherby Ladronne - Win £1
04/02/2023 15:30 Sandown Celebre D'Allen - Win £1 -
Nothing from yesterday, but the bot picked up it. The software shows 2 winners but 1 was at 15 so not surprised I didn't get it
Today's trades
03/02/2023 15:00 Chepstow Ree Okka - Win £2
03/02/2023 15:00 Chepstow Surrey Quest - Win £1
03/02/2023 15:10 Catterick Snowy Clouds - Win £2
03/02/2023 16:05 Chepstow Haas Boy - Win £0.50 -
3/3 as I avoided Just A Dime but my bot picked it up which was another winner. Bank now £43
Today's selection - will need to check later for market to form
02/02/2023 14:40 Fakenham Doireann - avoid
02/02/2023 16:25 Fakenham Ten Past Midnight - avoid
02/02/2023 15:35 Wincanton Phillapa Sue - avoid
02/02/2023 16:45 Wincanton Pure Theatre - avoid
02/02/2023 16:45 Wincanton Mollie Brown - avoid -
3/3 yesterday.
In the end I traded
14:42 Limerick for £1.50
15:00 Lingfield for £2.00
16:10 Lingfield for £0.50Bank now at £40. Not a bad month. Following on from Ryan's latest advice, you could take 50% of the profit and treat yourself. That'll bring the bank down to £30 and sticking with £10 liability will keep it how we started this challenge.
These are today's selections but will have to check later once the markets have formed a bit more
01/02/2023 13:00 Exeter Hititi - Win £1
01/02/2023 13:50 Ayr Gaillimh A Stor - Win £1.50
01/02/2023 15:55 Exeter Just A Dime - avoid
01/02/2023 16:10 Ayr Isenay - Win £1 -
January 2023 Review
The Race to £100 Challenge
Started with £20 and managed to finish the month with £40. If we can continue at this rate by the end of the year the bank will be just under £82k!! (But we'll be using £16k liability on each trade, good luck getting that matched! And even if you could get that matched there's a tipping point from brave to foolhardy).Considering this was just meant to be a bit of fun I have learnt a bit about trading along the way. I've been here 2 years and the 1 strategy at a time rule is finally sinking in. By analysing the data alongside the software I made the decision to reduce liability from 1/3rd to 1/5th and managed it just in time as the following had 2 losers. It's still very risky to be used as my main strategy, however, it's given me an idea about risk tolerance.
My Trading Journey
At the start of the year I decided to slim down my strategies to 3 main ones and a 4th on specific days. I've tracked the results vs the software and early on noticed I made an error with my bot on 1 of them which resulted in a losing trade. Overall, the results were pretty much bang on with the software. The only real changes were either down to my bot or how I chose to trade them. So once again, the horse racing software is smashing it out of the ground! I cannot wait to see what the football one will do.The downside of using multiple strategies on Fairbot is that they were all using the same bank which I had set to compounding. As a result when I got a losing trade it wiped out most of the profit and I had a lot of days which were +/-1pt. Going forward I'm going to experiment with changing the stakes and focusing on 1 main strategy.
Overall, Jan +10pts
which meansYellow belt achieved!
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1/2 yesterday so brings the bank down to £36. I did anticipate a downturn of approx 2 trades so glad I switched to 20% rather than 33%.
These are today's selections, I haven't had a chance to review which ones are relevant but the usual rules apply 3-15 and are not in the top 2. If they're close just make a judgement call
Let's hope we end the month with another clean sweep!
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Finally had that losing trade. 5/6 so a loss of £3.50 brings the bank down to £45.50 but the liability remains at £10
Today's trades
30/01/2023 13:22 Punchestown Mr Globalist - Win £0.50
30/01/2023 15:07 Punchestown Changing The Rules - avoid
30/01/2023 15:25 Huntingdon Homme Public - Win £1
30/01/2023 15:42 Punchestown King Ferdinand - non-runner -
@chris-osborne I don’t mind it, especially if 1 or both are towards the higher end because the liability is the same. If anything it goes down slightly because they both can’t win.
I like to check there is a clear favourite though. I think the last race today could be questionable as they’re 3rd and 4th but have similar odds to top 2.
The other thing to remember is we might think there is a loser amongst the selections but we don’t know which one it’ll be. It’s all personal preference but I have to put faith in the software. If I skipped certain trades because I thought they’ll lose and they won I would kick myself
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@dan-mackinnon What are your thoughts on more than 1 runner in the same race as it will increase the probablilty of a loser occurring?
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Another clean sweep yesterday so the winning run continues. The bank is now up to £49. If you had gone for the other 2 they also won so it'll be £50.
I don't know about anyone else but whenever I go on long winning runs I always feel the next trade will be a loser. Therefore, I went back into the software results to see what has happened and try to predict what might happen.
The SR is about 90% so it's quite common to have 9 wins and then 1 losing trade. Of all the losing trades for it to happen once is the most common outcome. I know I've said previously two in a row happen roughly once per month, but I was wrong. Two in a row is far less frequent, however, it's more likely to have some variation on 1 losing trade, 1 winning trade, 1 losing. Using that I wanted to see what sort of overall exposure there is if it's not the winning/ losing streaks.
So, using £10 fixed liability I tried to see the biggest drawdown. On a few occasions there would be -£30 to -£40. The worst is -£46 from last December. Therefore, I will now split these into 1/5ths so that it can cover the worst drawdown. I'd keep it at £10 liability until we hit £60 and then continue compounding at 1/6ths for the added security.
Apologies for the rambling but I thought I'd share my thinking out loud. If anyone else has any thoughts I'd be interested to know.
Today's trades
29/01/2023 13:15 Southwell Harry Du Berlais - Layed to win £2
29/01/2023 13:15 Southwell Dragonfruit - Layed to win £0.50
29/01/2023 13:40 Fontwell Per Vino Veritas - Layed to win £1
29/01/2023 14:25 Southwell Norman Fletcher - Layed to win £1.50
29/01/2023 15:45 Sedgefield Elleon - Layed to win £1.50
29/01/2023 15:45 Sedgefield Myburg - Layed to win £1.50 -
4/4 yesterday which brings the bank up to £43.50. There are quite a lot of selections today so our unbeaten run will probably come to an end. With that in mind, as the bank has hit £40 I'm going to drop the liability to 25% and start again with £10.
28/01/2023 12:10 Cheltenham Unexpected Party - Layed to win £0.50
28/01/2023 12:10 Cheltenham Llandinabo Lad - will wait but likely skip this, however Betdaq doesn't increase the liability as there are already two other lay horses in this race
28/01/2023 12:10 Cheltenham Dalamoi - Layed to win £1.50
28/01/2023 12:20 Doncaster Headscarf Lil - Layed to win £1
28/01/2023 13:50 Cheltenham Your Darling - I'll probably skip this as it's currently 2nd fav. It could drift if you wanted to check later on
28/01/2023 14:25 Cheltenham Dusart - Layed to win £0.50
28/01/2023 15:35 Cheltenham Mofasa - Currently Layed to win £0.50 but will wait to see what odds do
28/01/2023 16:10 Cheltenham Might I - Layed to win £1.50 -
@dan-mackinnon thanks was thinking of spreading my risk across other platforms at some point .
The thought had occured to me also re the main betfair account find it easy enough to lose money there without added jeopardy -
@chris-osborne nice one! Sometimes I think I should do this with my main BF account, but it's way too risky. However, it is a good bank accelerator.
After hearing Ryan's latest podcast, he mentioned using other exchanges to spread your commissions, etc. So Betfair, Betdaq, Smarkets and Matchbook. I've taken the £20 from this and put it into a new Matchbook account so hopefully that'll help get that up to a decent level to start using it on another strategy.
If you're interested Matchbook has a promo code COMMFREE90 for 90 days free commission.
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@dan-mackinnon Cheers for posting these doubled my Betdaq account from £15 to £31 - I am avoiding most above 12 for now