Fortune Favours the Bold
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I’m starting to notice with horse racing that you have a lot of break even days +/- 1pt, a few good days +2-3pts, and on occasion very good days 3+ pts. Every now and then you get terrible days -5pts. Yesterday was one of the break even days, I’m sure many more to come.
I did however notice that my selections were quite different from the software. I know this is because of the filters I use, therefore I’ll wait until 11am before getting my qualifiers for the day. I might set a reoccurring alarm and setting trades for the day can be a lunchtime event
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@dan-mackinnon Thanks Dan will keep an eye on it
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@david-baker-0 I’ll be posting them here each morning. Not much happened today so probably one to miss
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@dan-mackinnon Cheers
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@david-baker-0 these are my own selections but they’re taken from the beaten favourite filter
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@dan-mackinnon
Hi Dan happy new year.I like the thought of the separate bank in a separate exchange for the more risky stuff.Would like to follow along.Are the selections from your own filter or a pre made one? -
Finally, something else I’ve thought about and wanted to do this year is find a way that I can use trading to give back in a positive way.
As I’m miles off premium charge, and we don’t pay tax on trading I decided at the end of each year I’ll give 10% of my profit to charity. I’ve read a few biographies lately and quite a few people do it. It also gives me extra motivation to be successful!
Happy new year everyone! Best of luck for 2023
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End of month/ Year review/ January Challenge
I don't have any records for December as I've been messing about with what I wanted to try in 2023. I've really enjoyed trading the horses and have decided I will stick with that going forward.
Overall it's been a good year. I feel I've come on as a trader and looking forward to the next 12 months. I got off to a good start and never really threatened to go beneath my starting bank which is a relief. I've been working on the mental side of my trading and feel I've got more confident compared to this time last year.
I wanted to try a little challenge and thought I'd share it here if anyone wants to join in. It's a high risk/ (hopefully) high reward so you've been warned. A few months back I mentioned how I took £20 from my Betdaq account and managed to be really aggressive and turn it into £100. To see if it was a fluke or not I'm going to attempt it again!
The rules are to lay the horse for a fixed liability which will be 1/3rd of the bank. As this limits most early banks the highest odds will be c.15. Each day I'll review and reset the liability. Sometimes you get 1 loser but the software currently shows the longest losing streak as 2 so there is a chance the bank will drop 67%. On that basis, please be aware this is a bit of fun and not a serious trading approach! There are quite a few selections today so chances are we'll get at least 1 loser, but hopefully, it comes at the end of the day. Just because the software shows there have been 2 consecutive losers, doesn't mean there won't be 3, or 2 losers followed by 1 win and another loss. In those instances when the bank drops below 33% we'll have to stop.
Today's Trades
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I've been messing about with liability and different ideas that I forgot to update at the end of the month. I got blinded by the big numbers and near the endless potential of the horse racing that I needed a moment to come back to reality (which is a polite way of saying I had a losing week).
I was reading over the weekend and something interesting was that in leadership the worst thing that can happen is not expecting something to happen. It made me think of all the worst-case scenarios that could happen and try to realistically visualise how I would respond.
This month got off to a good start and through variance and my own mistakes took a drop. Overall, finished +12pts so can't complain.
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My first horse racing update. I started by using my amended Pace Lays with 1% staking, I then added the Beaten Favourite and Last Time Winner also with 1%. Later, I switched from fixed stake to fixed liability with a maximum drawdown of 10%. In theory, the worst-case scenario should be -30%. So far the results have mostly lined up with the software, the only difference is that on the Beaten Favourite I have the top 2 removed and sometimes the order switches around so some horses qualify and others don't. I've run the strategy without removing the favourite and it's still profitable so I'm not too fussed.
Pace Lay only
11: 1pt
12: 1.5pt
13: no trades
Added LTW and BF
14: -5pts
15: 12pts
16: -20pts
17: 8pts
switched to fixed liability
18: 4pts
19: 3.5pts
20: 2.5ptsOverall, 7.5pts
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
The 3 don't of BTC that I try and stick to:
Don't risk money you can't afford to lose (and I include membership, software, etc. in that)
Don't neglect the day job
Don't forget about your family and loved onesThe 3 don't of BTC that I try and stick to:
Don't risk money you can't afford to lose (and I include membership, software, etc. in that) Don't neglect the day job Don't forget about your family and loved onesLove this!
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Yesterday had 3 losers on the Pace Lays, 1 of which was 12.5 so that pretty much wiped out the previous days profit. I've checked against the software results and they are pretty much bang on. 2 were out by 1 tick which is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
The software did have 1 horse that I didn't trade, but I had 1 that wasn't on the software. It's made no difference to the overall results but I might set a daily reminder to check the selections at midday just to make sure they cover everything.
Overall, a rough day and -20pts but including the day before it is -8pts. Considering I was risking 6pts per game with the football it's not that bad. I had looked at the software and gone through some worse-case scenarios based on the max. drawdown and predicted a 20pt drop was due. If the software is right there will also be days when the bank goes up 30% so you have to take the rough with the smooth.
In future, I will look to switch to fixed liability, but for now, I'll keep on with this until the end of the month or until I hit my bank management stop loss.
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@martin said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
@dan-mackinnon the great day still counts
that's what people forget quickly!Definitely! I was speaking with another trader and said that this is my hobby so I'm probably more aggressive with my trading than I should be. But, if I can make enough to pay my BTC membership each year I'm happy.
The 3 don't of BTC that I try and stick to:
- Don't risk money you can't afford to lose (and I include membership, software, etc. in that)
- Don't neglect the day job
- Don't forget about your family and loved ones
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@dan-mackinnon the great day still counts
that's what people forget quickly! -
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Martin said people aren’t celebrating wins on here as much as they’re moaning. As British people this doesn’t come naturally to us! But here we go…
Yesterday I had a clean sweep! All my horses won (or lost rather) and I got 12 pts. I’m sure this will set off the inevitable losing run now, but I wanted to share and say thank you. When I think of my journey as a trader there’s no way I would have got this far without BTC and all the great people here.
Let’s hope we get some more and I look forward to reading all of your success stories!
And of course, today was a disaster. The joys of trading!
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Martin said people aren’t celebrating wins on here as much as they’re moaning. As British people this doesn’t come naturally to us! But here we go…
Yesterday I had a clean sweep! All my horses won (or lost rather) and I got 12 pts. I’m sure this will set off the inevitable losing run now, but I wanted to share and say thank you. When I think of my journey as a trader there’s no way I would have got this far without BTC and all the great people here.
Let’s hope we get some more and I look forward to reading all of your success stories!
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I've been working away using the horse racing software and have 3 strategies I want to test. I'll aim to do a weekly update and compare my results with the software. Hopefully, if anyone is interested in the software this can give them an idea of how it works vs reality.
I had some outrights in the cricket world cup (Pakistan, NZ and India) that I managed to green up on and I've got a bit carried away with the football World Cup outrights. I tried to look at who might get out of the group and have an easy next round, so I've gone:
- Argentina
- France
- Portugal
- Netherlands
- Denmark
and a real outsider - USA
I placed some of these a while back when I got some unexpected green, but after doing the latest set of football survivor predictions I'm not holding out much hope! Luckily some have already moved in my favour and have the tiniest amount of green.
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@julian-drake-clarke I think it comes down to your experience and how you want to trade it. It would be like comparing the tennis software to the football one. If you don't know anything about tennis or how the markets move it's a bit redundant.
Unfortunately, the horse racing software is not as simple as put in a few filters and start printing money. It is however really good at testing ideas you might have and getting a rough idea of how your strategy compares with the software. I also think if you want to really get the most out of horse racing you need to use bots. They're not difficult but just another expense to add on.
If the football software is being updated in the same style as the horse racing one it might be a good idea to wait and see how you get on with that first.
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@dan-mackinnon this is great, glad you are doing so well!
I'm considering including horse racing alongside football and I'm wondering if, in your opinion, it has a greater possibility of being more profitable. The number of total possible trades a day is an obvious attraction, especially on days when there is little value on football.
