Fortune Favours the Bold
-
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today’s O1.5/ SHG
- Suwon vs Jeonbuk
- Man City vs Villa
- San Jose vs Sporting Kansas
- Portland vs Philadelphia
This isn’t on the filter but I’m also expecting Palace vs Man Utd to be o1.5
SHG 1/1
O1.5 3/4I didn't do the Palace one in the end (fortunately) and none of the SHG queues got matched.
+2pts
-
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today’s O1.5/ SHG
- Suwon vs Jeonbuk
- Man City vs Villa
- San Jose vs Sporting Kansas
- Portland vs Philadelphia
This isn’t on the filter but I’m also expecting Palace vs Man Utd to be o1.5
-
Today’s O1.5/ SHG
- Suwon vs Jeonbuk
- Man City vs Villa
- San Jose vs Sporting Kansas
- Portland vs Philadelphia
-
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today’s 01.5/ SHG
- Tottenham vs Burnley
- Watford vs Leicester
In the end it didn't matter as all the PL games had SHG (except the Tottenham one). I was surprised looking at the odds at HT, most were c.5.0 or above for SHG except the Villa vs Palace which was 3.5 despite numerous shots. I queued at 2.5 for the same liability which helped recover most of the Tottenham loss. If I spot an opportunity like that again I'll post on football thread.
Overall -2pts
Nothing today.
-
I'm not going for a SHG in the Leicester game but will in the Palace one. We've had a lot of chances mostly due to Villa being so poor. Both teams will want to win so I would expect them to come out stronger in the 2nd half with the players they have. It's currently 3.5 to lay but I'll queue up at 2.5, if it looks flat I'll cancel.
-
What do I know about football. Watford have already scored
Pope made some outstanding saves and Burnley hit the post so can't really complain about losing the Tottenham one
-
@dan-mackinnon I would expect goals in our game but neither team has anything to play for other than jobs next season in our case as Rodgers has already said squad will be smaller next year without Europe
-
There was only 1 from yesterday which was Dortmund vs Hertha which won +2pts
Today’s 01.5/ SHG
- Tottenham vs Burnley
- Watford vs Leicester
I’m not sure how either will go. You would imagine Burnley would be happy with a point given their circumstances and they can frustrate teams. How much of an impact does playing Arsenal on Thursday have on Tottenham?
Although Watford are down, Roy Hodgson likes to keep it solid in defence and they don’t concede too many at home. This is their last home game of the season. They really don’t offer anything going forward so if there are goals it’ll be coming from Leicester.
I’ll probably leave the o1.5 and see at HT in both if it’s worth a SHG
-
@dan-mackinnon It was a quick SHG on that one, i missed it too.
Have a great day
-
A win last night but didn’t get matched on the SHG so +2pts.
There’s a few I’ve queued up for today but I’m off to Crystal Palace’s annual beer festival. I use the same technique as I do for the grand national - make selections and hope for the best!
-
@matt-wood Last year I got to this stage but I can look back and see I wasn't taking it seriously. The difference this time is I feel a lot more in control.
-
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Tottenham game was a winner. I didn't get matched on SHG but +2pts which bumps me just over the 150 mark! I'll wait until the end of the month to do my 'grading' so hopefully I'm being extra cautious for the rest of the month
Today's O1.5/ SHG
- Sporting Cristal vs Ayacucho
Your first 'belt' beckons
-
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Tottenham game was a winner. I didn't get matched on SHG but +2pts which bumps me just over the 150 mark! I'll wait until the end of the month to do my 'grading' so hopefully I'm being extra cautious for the rest of the month
Today's O1.5/ SHG
- Sporting Cristal vs Ayacucho
don't blame you on the caution but seems like you are doing really well!
-
Tottenham game was a winner. I didn't get matched on SHG but +2pts which bumps me just over the 150 mark! I'll wait until the end of the month to do my 'grading' so hopefully I'm being extra cautious for the rest of the month
Today's O1.5/ SHG
- Sporting Cristal vs Ayacucho
-
@dan-mackinnon excellent work there!
-
As mentioned in my previous post I've struggled a bit these last couple of weeks so haven't updated this. One of my lessons learnt is that I'm more aware of myself and can identify that in my trading and something I'm trying to implement in other areas of my life. When I feel anxious or depressed it's easy to get into a spiral of wanting to try harder and just getting more worked up and things ultimately feel worse. The benefit of noticing it with trading is that I start to feel it coming and I can step away. Martin and Ryan have stressed many times that there are 1,000s of trades in our future so missing a handful now will not change that. Sometimes it's a bit harder to identify that in other areas of life, but the same principles apply.
Anyway, enough of that! For transparency, the below are trades I've done so far this month, all are O1.5
- Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets +2
- Tottenham vs Leicester +2
- Newcastle Jets vs WU +2
- CCM vs Newcastle Jets +4 (got on the SHG)
- Eskilstuna vs Vasteras +2
- Honka vs FC Inter +2
- Forest Green vs Mansfield +2
- Fiorentina vs Roma +2
So far +18pts for May Thank you Newcastle Jets!
Today's O1.5/SHG
- Tottenham vs Arsenal sod's law it'll lose now I've updated it!
I've also messed around with the horse racing but I'll keep that separate from here.
-
@martin The theory is skewing the reality. A lot of those trades wouldn't have matched, so actually the true figures are closer to what to expect.
I did notice this with the horse racing software. Just because something says it's a profitable strategy, when we go to put trades on it might be slightly different to what the back testing says.
It's not discipline that's the issue. I was hesitant to mention this, but I've been having issues with my mental health and those areas had to take priority. I don't mind skipping a day or two if I can avoid that pressure. I still think 10% ROI is a realistic and steady target.
-
@dan-mackinnon bots could help you then if discipline is an issue, take the stress of trading away
well done on a good month!
-
End of Month Review - April
Near the end a lot of this was paper traded, but looking back over the figures it was a decent monthApril in numbers
- 25 trades (120 filter trades - 60 SHG / 60 O1.5)
- 20 winning trades 80% SR (100 winning trades - 52 SHG/ 48 O1.5) 83% SR
- 8 days trading (13 days)
- LLR: 2 (2)
- +10pts (+80 I think that's right?!)
I was quite pleased that I'm averaging 10% ROI each month, but now I've run the full numbers it seems I've potentially missed out on a load! I guess this is when theory and practice are different.
To be honest, I feel that I have struggled this April with things outside of trading. The longer I do this, the more aware I am of the mental side of trading. It's easy to say you could have got whatever, but the reality is we're not robots and if you're not in a mentally sound place it will impact you. I'm happy to stick with my 10% ROI.
-
Todays SHG/ o1.5
- CCM vs Western United
- Dortmund vs Bochum
- Zenit vs Loko Moscow
- Ajax vs Zwolle
- Porto vs Vizela
- Sporting Cristal vs Binacional
- Rennes vs St Etienne
I’ll just trade the A League today and paper trade the others
