Fortune Favours the Bold
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@dan-mackinnon outstanding recovery!
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End of Month Review - October
I've been a bit quiet posting on here as I've been working away on Fairbot. I'm quite happy with my SHG and U3.5 scalping bots, although I still get some strange results.I've also been giving the horse racing software a proper go. I must admit, I never truly appreciated how amazing it is! Some really great stuff on there. I think horse racing will take my attention up to the World Cup, and if the football software is even half as good it'll be fantastic for us traders.
October was a real rollercoaster, much like everyone else it seems. Had a horrendous spell which cost me 30pts. But with every cloud, I went away and completely reset how I went about trading. I'm now using bots and the software and get everything sorted within the first hour or two of the day. I don't need to sit and fret about results or figure out my staking, it's all done for me. I feel I've come full circle and this little break has made me fall in love with trading again. I managed to claw back 28pt to end this month -2pts. However, considering the staking that got me those 28pts was much more risk-averse than the staking that lost me 30, I'm really pleased.
Oct -2pts
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Here we go, the first day of a new adventure! The big wide world of using a bots
Yesterday I felt so rough I had the day off work but luckily had time to create some bots (These are still a work in progress but I'll post them up soon). I had quite the rollercoaster with these, in particular a horse racing one I watched in horror as it risked my entire bank! That was a definite wake up and I've set fixed liability on everything.
Luckily my SHG strategy seemed to work fine for the Inter Miami game last night. As a result, I'll go back to trading SHG which is what this filter was originally designed for. I've fixed the liability to 3% so I'll aim to win 1pt per trade.
My plan going forward is to use the SHG bot strategy while I work on other areas. I won't post every game I trade and instead will just do a monthly review. I started to find I got too emotionally attached to trading when I track results every day. Instead, I'll add them to a data sheet and go through the results at the end of the month.
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Your weekend sounds like mine!
In a perverse kinda way, I look at the losses as a challenge. I started 2 months ago with £100 and I've been yo-yoing with the same £100... From a high of £150 to a low of £40 but quickly getting back to the original £100. Maybe this is our gaining wisdom, only time will tell.
Btw, three little words to you.... Wuhan Three Towns... Made me a good profit their last 5 games. Worth a healthy trade. Get well soon
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September Update
This will be slightly different from my usual end-of-month posts because I had a bit of a wake-up this weekend.September ended +2pts and was a quiet month as I was on holiday, had birthdays, etc. After the recent talk about what level we're at and thinking more long-term regarding trading, I started looking at what strategies I'm working on and how to move forward. I had a gut feeling I was overstaking and spreading myself too thin. Rather than address the issue I thought I'd carry on until it resolved itself. Unfortunately, this weekend was the resolution and everything that could go wrong did and it wiped 30pts (nearly a 1/3) of my bank!
To make a bad weekend worse, I was in bed ill, Liverpool couldn't beat those seagull followers and don't even get me started on VAR!
But with every cloud, I had time to think by being forced to not do much this weekend. I can now treat this as starting new and restructure a more sensible and sustainable staking plan. In a bizarre way, I also realised that my personal/ work life reflected my trading "life". I was definitely trying to do too much too soon and needed to slow down. I was also so pleased I had overcome my former FOMO/ gambling I failed to address another trading sin that I was developing - greed. Instead, I need to practise patience with trading and go back to enjoying the process rather than thinking of the endless possibilities once I "make it".
Sorry for the ramble, but as always stated on here, one of the best things about BTC is that it is a community and everyone can be honest about their mistakes and by sharing hopefully we can all learn something.
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
A bit of an update on how things are progressing and some plans for the future.
So far my trading in 2022 has been an experience at getting my mentality sorted and exploring what type of trader I’d like to be. I started the year trading SHG but found the human element of trading a bit too difficult at times due to other commitments.
Taking advice from the BTC guys I’ve finally decided to start putting long term goals into action rather than waiting for “some day”. Therefore, I’ll scrap the horse racing for now and reinvest that into a bot and VPS so I can set and forget my SHG trades. I was so keen on finding another strategy with the horses I neglected what I was doing at the start of the year. The final thought was it’s easier to take risks now with a smaller bank than to wait for a magical figure to justify a change. The old advice to stick with one strategy is definitely true!
So here’s to the next stage in my journey!
But, like all great things we have to wait, this weekend it’s my birthday, my girlfriend’s birthday and yesterday I proposed to her and she said yes! So we’re off to celebrate before she realises what’s she’s done!
Have a good weekend everyone!
amazing only just seen this congrats!
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Today's O1.5
- St. Liege vs Seraing Utd
- Toronto FC vs Inter Miami CF
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today’s O1.5
- Sheff Wednesday vs Wycombe
1/1 +2pts
Also had a SHG but very late 90+6Nothing for a while now
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@dan-mackinnon Congratulations Dan nice one
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@dan-mackinnon Wonderful news Dan, many congratulations upon your engagement!
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@dan-mackinnon Congratulations to you both on the engagement. Enjoy your birthdays
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A bit of an update on how things are progressing and some plans for the future.
So far my trading in 2022 has been an experience at getting my mentality sorted and exploring what type of trader I’d like to be. I started the year trading SHG but found the human element of trading a bit too difficult at times due to other commitments.
Taking advice from the BTC guys I’ve finally decided to start putting long term goals into action rather than waiting for “some day”. Therefore, I’ll scrap the horse racing for now and reinvest that into a bot and VPS so I can set and forget my SHG trades. I was so keen on finding another strategy with the horses I neglected what I was doing at the start of the year. The final thought was it’s easier to take risks now with a smaller bank than to wait for a magical figure to justify a change. The old advice to stick with one strategy is definitely true!
So here’s to the next stage in my journey!
But, like all great things we have to wait, this weekend it’s my birthday, my girlfriend’s birthday and yesterday I proposed to her and she said yes! So we’re off to celebrate before she realises what’s she’s done!
Have a good weekend everyone!
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Today’s O1.5
- Sheff Wednesday vs Wycombe
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Yesterday's Horses
16 trades, 2 winners (12.5%)
P&L: -6.36Overall
57 trades, 6 wins (10.5%)
P&L: -8.03
BTC: +2.35 -
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's O1.5
- LAFC vs Houston
Yesterday's Horses
26 Trades with 2 winners (7% SR)
P&L: -8.22Didn't get matched. Not much football for a while
Weekend Horses
15 trades with 2 winners (13% SR)
P&L: +6.55Overall
41 trades, 4 winners (9.76% SR)
P&L: -1.67
BTC: +6.34It looked like going in early had worse odds but at least there were some winners! This is a real mental test to see your bank slowly tick down looking for those 1 in 10 winners that'll bring it back.
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Today's O1.5
- LAFC vs Houston
Yesterday's Horses
26 Trades with 2 winners (7% SR)
P&L: -8.22 -
@dan-mackinnon I think you are right re the stakes.I probably upped them a bit too quickly as July/beginning of August was a bit of a purple patch. I will probably stay at £1 for now and see what happens
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@david-baker-0 that’s really interesting to know. I remember John saying this type of strategy you will get a lot of losing trades which is why I’ve changed it to worst case scenario planning.
Interesting about upping stakes. I wonder if this more something you keep fixed for longer and then adjust. Maybe 3-6 months, or readjust stakes every year. I think I’ll leave it fixed for now
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@dan-mackinnon Hi Dan this is exactly what I did as you say it’s pretty much set and forget.I do all my selections in the morning about 11 ish.July was a great month and my £20 bank on 50p stakes zoomed up and soon I was on £1.5 stakes and the bank was £160+.August was about break even and September so far has been brutal.Bank down to about £90 and am back on £1 stakes.Like you I am using a separate bank (Smarkets)
