Fortune Favours the Bold
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@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Weekend's Trades
Nurnberg vs Schalke +1pt & FHG
Fenerbahce vs Trabzonspor - NM & FHG
Lech Poznan vs Ruch +1pt & FHG
Hamburger SV vs Magdeburg +1pt & FHG
G.A. Eagles vs Vitesse +1pt & FHG
Nijmegen vs Volendam - NM & FHG
Strasbourg vs Clermont -3pts & NO FHG
Sarpsborg 08 vs Valerenga - NM & FHG
Slavia Prague vs Plzen +1pt & FHG
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK +1pt & FHGA good weekend
6/7
+3pts
Nov: +5ptsFHG
9/10
35/46
76% -
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Let's hope November brings a positive start
Today's Trades
Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec +1pt & FHG
Larne vs Cliftonville +1pt & FHG
Paris SG vs Montpellier - NM & FHG2/2 +2pts
Nov: +2pts
The last NI games were actually higher than 1.35 and got matched at 1.5. These games seem to be undervaluedFHG
3/3
26/36
72%I post about NI games every week. Definitely overpriced games. Often full-time teams playing part-time teams
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Weekend's Trades
Nurnberg vs Schalke
Fenerbahce vs Trabzonspor
Lech Poznan vs Ruch
Hamburger SV vs Magdeburg
G.A. Eagles vs Vitesse
Nijmegen vs Volendam
Strasbourg vs Clermont
Sarpsborg 08 vs Valerenga
Slavia Prague vs Plzen
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK -
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Let's hope November brings a positive start
Today's Trades
Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec +1pt & FHG
Larne vs Cliftonville +1pt & FHG
Paris SG vs Montpellier - NM & FHG2/2 +2pts
Nov: +2pts
The last NI games were actually higher than 1.35 and got matched at 1.5. These games seem to be undervaluedFHG
3/3
26/36
72% -
Let's hope November brings a positive start
Today's Trades
Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec
Larne vs Cliftonville
Paris SG vs Montpellier -
@Ryan said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
@Dan-MacKinnon Thats not to shabby always take a 1 pt profit month over a loss!
Exactly. To quote Big Sam "Respect the point"
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@Dan-MacKinnon Thats not to shabby always take a 1 pt profit month over a loss!
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End of Month Review
Not sure what's happened but I must have missed a couple of days on here because my own recordkeeping shows I've made 1pt this month!
S&F O1.5G
33 games
25 wins
76% SR
LLR: 3 (The most I've recorded is 4)
Max DD: -9pts
Oct P&L: 1pt (Suggests 75% is breakeven)FHG
33 games
23 wins
70% SR
LLR: 3 -
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Weekend Trades
Ceske Budejovice vs FK Pardubice -3pts & FHG
Charlton vs Bolton - NM & FHG
Barrow vs Salford -3pts & NO FHG
St. Gallen vs Grasshoppers - NM & FHG
Bastia vs Guingamp -3pts & NO FHG
Kaiserslautern vs Hamburger SV - NM & FHG
Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg +1pt & NO FHG
Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp +1pt & FHG
Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Prague +1pt & FHG
Brighton vs Fulham +1pt & FHG
Kongsvinger vs Sandnes - NM & FHG
Ath Bilbao vs Valencia +1pt & FHGTerrible Saturday, but fairly decent Sunday
5/8
-4pts
Oct: -2ptsFHG
9/12 this weekend
22/32 69% SR -
Weekend Trades
Ceske Budejovice vs FK Pardubice
Charlton vs Bolton
Barrow vs Salford
St. Gallen vs Grasshoppers
Bastia vs Guingamp
Kaiserslautern vs Hamburger SV
Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg
Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp
Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Prague
Brighton vs Fulham
Kongsvinger vs Sandnes
Ath Bilbao vs Valencia -
Forgot to post yesterdays trades which were
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia - NM + FHG
Crewe vs Stockport +1pt - No FHG
Walsall vs Crawley +1pt + FHG
Wrexham vs Sutton - NM + FHG+2pts
Oct: +2ptsFHG
3/4
10/16 = 62% SRI know I've seen it before but does anyone have a calculator that says what odds you need for a SR to be profitable?
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@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Weekends Trades
Karvina vs Hradec Kralove - NM luckily as it ended 1-0
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord - NM but FHG
Charlton vs Reading +1pt - no FHG
Sevilla vs Real Madrid +1pt - no FHG
Basel vs Servette -3pts - no FHG
Columbus Crew vs Montreal Impact - NM but FHG
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union - NM but FHG
Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles FC +1pt & FHG
Lillestrom vs Valerenga +1pt & FHG
K. Oslo vs Raufoss -3pts - no FHG (the dreaded 0-0!)
Sparta Prague vs Ceske Budejovice - NM but FHG
Viking vs Tromso +1pt - no FHG
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda - NM but FHG5/7 -1pt
Oct: 0ptsFHG forward testing
7/12 = 59% SR -
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's trades
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie +1pt
Tranmere vs Doncaster +1pt
Larne vs C. Rangers +1pt
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda - match postponed3/3
Oct: +1ptI'm also testing another strategy which is the over 0.5g if queued at 1.11.
I was doing some further research and noticed that all of these games had 100% record of a goal being scored. I looked and for a 90% SR require odds of 1.11, however, these seemed to get met quite early so wonder if I could push it out to 1.15. This is the sort of thing the backtesting would be good to mess about with.Weekends Trades
Karvina vs Hradec Kralove
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord
Charlton vs Reading
Sevilla vs Real Madrid
Basel vs Servette
Columbus Crew vs Montreal Impact
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles FC
Lillestrom vs Valerenga
K. Oslo vs Raufoss
Sparta Prague vs Ceske Budejovice
Viking vs Tromso
Shamrock Rovers vs DroghedaEdit I might also track whether there is a FHG. The odds are in the 1.4-1.5 range which is a lot more forgiving that 1.11
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Today's trades
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie
Tranmere vs Doncaster
Larne vs C. Rangers
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda -
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Notts County vs Mansfield: NT
Crewe vs Tranmere: NT
Swindon vs Newport: +1pt
Wrexham vs Salford: NTOct: -3pts
From the weekend +1pt
Oct: -2ptsNo football for a while.
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A bit eager so posting tomorrow's trades today
Notts County vs Mansfield
Crewe vs Tranmere
Swindon vs Newport
Wrexham vs SalfordOct: -3pts
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@Dan-MacKinnon Sorry for late reply, away at the moment.
Currently I’m testing a strategy of laying favorites with zero pace rating. Much lower odds and looks promising so far.
To be honest I’m pretty new to horse racing as well, but can see logic in things like laying beaten favourite, with angle being that these horses are overrated. Even if I can’t get a version of this to stick. Other things like age, weight and previous finishing positions is stuff I look at.
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@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's Trades
K. Oslo vs Bryne -3pts
Molde vs Bodo/Glimt +1ptYesterday's trades -2pts
Oct Total: -3ptsOff to a losing start, who could have predicted that!
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@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's Trades
5/7 -1pt
It looked like Plymouth vs Swansea was just about to match before a goal was scored because I got 2p. Oh well, 1pt loss from a list of 10 potential qualifiers isn't too bad considering this strategy has been left idle for a yearToday's Trades
K. Oslo vs Bryne
Molde vs Bodo/Glimt -
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Here we go, let's get back into it with some O1.5 S&F
Today's Trades
Linfield vs Glentoran
Larne vs CrusadersSod's law they'll lose! If I can figure out how to use BFBM I'll get them on as SHG too.
My rules are to queue up at 1.35 to win 1pt.
I managed to get on the SHG but forgot how much of a pain it can be to remember. I'll just do O1.5 S&F for now.
Yesterday's results
3/4 - slight profit but for clarity we'll call it a scratch day.Today's Trades
