Fortune Favours the Bold
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I realised a flaw in my plan last night, if the longest losing streak is 37 then allowing for 2x37 for each way is 74. If a losing streak can be back to back that means I would need a bank of 158 so I would potentially go bust before then.
I’ve decided to continue trading but just to win. I’ll track my results alongside the BTC software and see how we go!
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I'm back from Athens and it was fantastic! My nerdy self was in history heaven.
It's been good to have a break and now I'm back I want to focus on my trading and see what I can do. I've been pleasantly surprised with the progress I've made this year and feel the mental side of my game has improved.
I've been looking to expand outside of the football trading and thought now is a good opportunity as it's a bit quiet. I also haven't seen anyone blog about trading the horses so thought I'd offer myself up for a battering! I'll start with what should be rule number 1 of BTC, don't try and force a path when one has already been cleared by someone else. I've picked Wayne's Pace Letters to trade as it's the closest to a Set & Forget there is on the mega thread. I'm sure anyone else following can also chip in with advice or point out where I'm going wrong.
I'll be using a different bank and for clarity, 1 point will be different to 1 point with the football. My approach is to do e/w trades (so 2pts per trade vs 1pt on the BTC software) as the backtesting seems to show that as profitable. I know it's going through a rough patch lately and expect to go on long losing streaks, however, if it reaches -100pts I'll have to abandon it.
Yesterday's HR Results
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Trades: 28 races
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Winners: 1
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SR: 3.57%
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Placed: 6
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SR: 21.4%
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P&L: -25.62 pts
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LLR: 20
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BTC Software P&L: -23.43pts
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@dan-mackinnon This rings so true to me! Lost a whole bankroll years back, just because I was tired and too stubborn to admit it.
Results of my lesson is don't trade when tired, sick or if the wife is mauling you for 'snuggles'!
Hope your education was economical enough to bounce back from.n
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@dan-mackinnon Lesson learned indeed... MORE caffeine needed when trading
Have a great hol
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Yesterday, I made a basic mistake but learnt a lesson. Went for SHG in the Dortmund and Chelsea games, and had the Celtic and Man City games also lined up.
I was so exhausted from work this week that I feel asleep during the Chelsea game and missed the others. In hindsight, I traded the Chelsea game partially out of habit. As Ray Dalio says "habits are the strongest tools a trader has" and I really shouldn't have done it when I'm not fully aware.
Lesson learnt though -4pts
I'm off on holiday tomorrow so will pick this up in a week's time!
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From yesterday, no O1.5 but there was a SHG so 1/2. The Middlesbrough vs Sunderland game looked a bit quiet so avoided that. -4pts
Quite a few potential SHG in the Champions League.
Sept SR: 5/6 83%
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today’s O1.5
- LA Galaxy vs Kansas
- LAFC vs Real Salt Lake
- San Jose vs Vancouver
I got matched on 2 of these which both went on to win. I also backed a SHG in the Utd vs Arsenal game which won. I couldn't bring myself to do a SHG in the other Sunday game! On Saturday I went to back a SHG in the Newcastle vs Palace game but was out and about, turned out to be the right decision however I still think it was a value trade. Overall +6pts
Today's O1.5
- Breidablik vs Valur
For clarity (and so I don't keep posting SHG trades after the event), the games I'll be looking at today as potential SHG trades are:
- Breidablik vs Valur
- Middlesbrough vs Sunderland
I'll want to see decent IPS (c.10 shots, big chances, woodwork hit or disallowed goals) and good form from teams either conceding or scoring. SofaScore is good for this information and has a graph showing the flow of the game. Ideally, I'll want to be watching live as well.
Finally, I've been re-reading The Mental Game of Trading, and wanted to try something that was suggested to help with the fear of losing. I'll keep track of my monthly SR so I can see anticipate variance.
So far in September it's 4/4, 100% SR - My data suggests 85% so anything less than 1 in 5 losing trades is alright -
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today’s O1.5
- SJK vs VPS
1/1 +2pts
Today’s O1.5
- LA Galaxy vs Kansas
- LAFC vs Real Salt Lake
- San Jose vs Vancouver
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Today’s O1.5
- SJK vs VPS
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's O1.5
- Tromso vs Stromsgodset
- Austin vs Portland
I was wrong about the month being over, hopefully I haven't jinxed myself!
Of course! That'll teach me for being too eager before.
1/2 on the filter. I also looked to back SHG in Arsenal, Liverpool, Sunderland and Bournemouth games. Liverpool didn't match and Bournemouth lost so overall -6pts
The month of August finished +8pts
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Today's O1.5
- Tromso vs Stromsgodset
- Austin vs Portland
I was wrong about the month being over, hopefully I haven't jinxed myself!
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@matt-wood A third of the way to the black belt!
The play SHG helped, however I'm a bit cautious with that. Then again I really make sure they tick all the correct boxes before entering so it's possibly safer than the S&F
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@dan-mackinnon 14pts is pretty good for a month though, we all need a little luck now and then
Yellow belt next month
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End of Month Review - August
I would consider this month to have been a lucky one. It started with 2 losing trades which never got matched. At the start of the month, I was in the red with this strategy until the last half, so if those 2 had matched it would have been a real kick in the plums.- Number of trades: 26
- Number of winning trades: 22. SR 85% (data average 85%)
- Days trading: 15 / Busiest day: 4
- LLR: 2 (data record: 3)
Overall: +14pts
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today’s O1.5
- Valur vs Fram
1/1 on the filter and back SHG in Valur vs Fram (left it a bit late lads!) and Valencia vs Ath Madrid.
+6pts
No trades today/ tomorrow so I'll do an EOM summary shortly.
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's O1.5
- Daegu vs Sangju Sangmu
- Molde vs Sarpsborg 08
- Tromso vs Rosenborg
- Breidablik vs Leiknir
I only got matched on 2 of these, 1 of which lost. I also got matched on a SHG in the Tottenham game. I didn’t post it on the football thread but can do if I spot anything in future?
2/3 -2pts
Today’s O1.5
- Valur vs Fram
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@dan-mackinnon Let me whisper three little words in your ear....
Wuhan Three Towns
Getting decent odds on this are slim but not impossible. I'm going with goals FH and if their past performance is anything to go by, it should be a winner.
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today & Tomorrow's O1.5
- Hougang vs Home Utd
- Austin FC vs Los Angeles FC
- Kongsvinger vs Stabaek
- Grindavik vs Vestri
Rangers SHG +2pts
Was never getting matched on the Singapore game, with that I'm going to remove it from the filter.
2/3 from the filter
I also back SHGs in the Man Utd, Sunderland, Man City and Arsenal games, but only 1 got matched. Both Utd and Arsenal hit 1.35 but not to be.Overall 3/4 - scratch
Today's O1.5
- Daegu vs Sangju Sangmu
- Molde vs Sarpsborg 08
- Tromso vs Rosenborg
- Breidablik vs Leiknir
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@dan-mackinnon Whoa! Hellava game, 8-3! Ill be looking out for these guys in the future.
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Haha I've thought the same myself! @dan-mackinnon
