My First Half Goal Strategy
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Today's O1.5/SHG selections:
Preston v Bristol City, 3pm
Sibenik v Hadjuk Split, 4pmFor info these both had O1.5, FHG and SHG. Good start.
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@andrew-camp as this is a new development on the back of the FHG data its a working progress.
In theory, you'd be backing over 1.5 pre match, and then backing a SHG if there were less than 2 FHG... however I am still crunching numbers on this and have posted them purely for transparency and not necessarily to be followed with real stakes yet.
Few more days of work and I'll have all the data and can be more confident.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Today's O1.5/SHG selections:
Preston v Bristol City, 3pm
Sibenik v Hadjuk Split, 4pmNice one Matt, I have these on my selections too
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@matt-ayles That will be very interesting to see that data
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Today's O1.5/SHG selections:
Preston v Bristol City, 3pm
Sibenik v Hadjuk Split, 4pmMatt, what is your method with these? When do you back / exit etc?
Thanks.
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Today's O1.5/SHG selections:
Preston v Bristol City, 3pm
Sibenik v Hadjuk Split, 4pm -
Nothing on the filter the last few days.
I've done lots of analysis however and narrowed the leagues significantly without changing the filter criteria. I've also created a new one for laying U1.5/SHG which I'll start noting selections but I can't back test it as I don't know the average odds for O1.5 (@Keith-Anderson can you advise the rough odds range here?)
It's going to mean alot less selections popping up of course but if the quality is improved that is ideal.
@Ryan I will be doing the same level analysis on the matches that are 0-0 HT and have SHG soon so will create another filter for those.
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@matt-ayles Wow wow
Do you have the HT scores and FT?
Thinking here wonder which games are 0-0 at HT and how many finish 0-0
And also what a filter that could be for LTD lol
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Anyway, 2 tonight.
1945, Motherwell v Hibbs
2000, Anderlecht v Cercle BruggeCostly red cards. 0/2. -2pts
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@ryan said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@matt-ayles do you have leagues and also starting odds on these? They'll usually highlight a few things straight away.
Jesus, have I spotted that right... only 5.2% games finished a draw by FT? Wonder what the odds on the lay of the draw were
The average odds at kick off for a FHG are 1.4
Yes you have, 5.2% of the selections finished 0-0 at full time but where I do have the goal odds recorded I don't have the match odds...
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@matt-ayles do you have leagues and also starting odds on these? They'll usually highlight a few things straight away.
Jesus, have I spotted that right... only 5.2% games finished a draw by FT? Wonder what the odds on the lay of the draw were
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Anyway, 2 tonight.
1945, Motherwell v Hibbs
2000, Anderlecht v Cercle Brugge -
@liam-willis thank you mate. There seems to be a general consensus between you all that leagues are the area to focus on.
I may well make some changes to the filter in that regard, but I am happy with the general criteria for the filter so unless I have to I'd prefer not to touch them.
Thanks for the input. I'll work on the leagues next!
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@matt-ayles hello mate looking at your stats i would say you have the start of a solid 2nd half filter, there are a couple of concerns for me tho, the 0-0 % is too high i have a few filters and they are between 3-4 % only i would be looking at trying to get that down also the 2nd half 1.5 at 47.9% is slightly to low for my liking around 55% is what i try to aim for with that. Also keith is right about the leagues i have just learnt how to do pivot tables and i was shocked at the results for certain leagues, some leagues can really bring your strike rate down. So i would start there and see if the leagues make a difference before you start tweaking your criteria, hope that helps mate.
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@keith-anderson @Andy-Donnelly thanks for that. I will certainly be doing league by league stats regularly, i have those sheets setup on my tracker already.
What i was looking for was any thoughts on expanding the strategy into other markets based on these figures. The strike rates seem high but that's only useful if the odds correlate.
Do any of them stand out as decent opportunities?
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Some extra data for you, perhaps @Ryan, @Keith-Anderson and everyone can give me some pointers as to where to go next...
Total results 209
FHG 74.6%
SHG 79.9%
0-0 draw FT 5.2%
Over 1.5 FHG 37.8%
Over 2.5 FHG 14.8%
Over 1.5 SHG 47.9%
Over 2.5 SHG 18.7%
Over 1.5 Match 78.5%
Over 2.5 Match 55.0%These look like they make good reading but I could use some guidance on how to maximise them in the markets please.
I also have all the data on the times of the FHG and SHG (as in when the first of those occurs).
Try looking at specific leagues and see if there was an issue.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Just one today, Luton v Bristol City.
Goal. +0.8 points
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@matt-ayles Hi Matt, conscious that a lot of leagues have been playing with little to no fans all month, have you checked your data to see whether there is a correlation in drop off in your data with those specific leagues?
Sure I remember reading somewhere here that FHG strategies took a bit of a dive during the first wave or two of the pandemic
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Some extra data for you, perhaps @Ryan, @Keith-Anderson and everyone can give me some pointers as to where to go next...
Total results 209
FHG 74.6%
SHG 79.9%
0-0 draw FT 5.2%
Over 1.5 FHG 37.8%
Over 2.5 FHG 14.8%
Over 1.5 SHG 47.9%
Over 2.5 SHG 18.7%
Over 1.5 Match 78.5%
Over 2.5 Match 55.0%These look like they make good reading but I could use some guidance on how to maximise them in the markets please.
I also have all the data on the times of the FHG and SHG (as in when the first of those occurs).
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Over the winter break I'm doing some very detailed analysis of the filter as I've noticed an extremely high strike rate of SECOND half goals too, plus only 5% of the selections have ended 0-0 at FT which shows 80% of losing FHG selections have a SHG.
Anyway, I've only done a few hours of spreadsheet work so will see what i can find over the next 2 weeks.
I'm also involved with a second half goals strategy fella, it can be very profitable. I normally wait for odds of 1.5+ for a second half goal and will invest 50% with another 50% at odds 2.0 letting it run till end of match. Small stakes at the moment.
