My First Half Goal Strategy
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@matt-ayles The prices really start to rocket in FHG’s. I think after more testing on going all in at KO I’ll apply a split stake approach on my filter.
What I noticed was that exiting on 40 mins if no goal helped to potentially save significant profit.
So far out of 182 matches, 125 had a FHG and just 15 matches had the first goal scored at 40 minutes or later.09/01/22 Update. Now I’ve gone and said that, since 31/12/21 and 18 matches later 10 of those have had a goal after 40 mins, 6 of which right at the death, 44 mins or later. One on 52 mins!
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@matt-ayles Thanks for clarifying Matt.
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@dave-hayes said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@matt-ayles That would be really helpful please. What are the A/J/K leagues, I am assuming that A is for Australia, J for Japanese?
Like you I like leagues that are in UK Awake hours, which is why I lean towards Turkish Super League.
Happy to wait until tonight no problem there at all.
Apologies, yes, A is Australia, J is Japan, K is Korea, MLS is USA. There are many others, those were just the ones that came to me at the time!
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@matt-ayles That would be really helpful please. What are the A/J/K leagues, I am assuming that A is for Australia, J for Japanese?
Like you I like leagues that are in UK Awake hours, which is why I lean towards Turkish Super League.
Happy to wait until tonight no problem there at all.
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@dave-hayes no problem. I am happy to share all my research etc.
I haven't yet looked into worldwide major leagues, A / J / K / MLS etc, simply because I wanted to focus on leagues where matches were more suitable to trade during UK "awake" hours. They may well be excellent additions, but I'd need to research and test them thoroughly first.
If you like I'll send you the actual list of leagues currently on my filter? You'll have to wait until tonight however as I cannot access the BTC stats at work and don't have my laptop with me.
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@matt-ayles Thats really useful and helpfull Matt, thanks. I was asking because I am using LTD currently, but as we do am looking to refine it, down further to those teams and leagues which preferably have FHG in. My mind works logically first and so it makes sense to me to look for this, then the data second. Its one of my projects for today, so i appreciate your answer
Oh and happy new year to you.
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@dave-hayes morning mate.
My initial research involved scrolling the internet to establish which leagues had higher percentages of FHGs. I have stuck to major European and UK leagues for now. There are exceptions such as Spains La Liga which is notoriously low on FHG!
Once I had chosen my leagues, I created the filter based around percentage of matches that were 0-0 at HT.
I then tested the entry points, looked at odds etc and this is what I've come up with.
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@matt-ayles Nice results Matt, I like the logic behind it. Are you testing on a selected league and teams?
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7th Jan:
Scottish League 2, Edinburgh City v Elgin, 1945 uk.
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@martin said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@matt-ayles the odds averages will be interesting on these, well done!
As a rough guide I have found the averages to be circa 1.4 at KO, 1.7 at 15 mins and then 2.4 at 30 mins.
Having done multiple tests on entry points I found getting in at KO to be most profitable as there are often early goals.
I have however also found that splitting the stake works better than just getting in at KO as your liability is the same either way if no goal comes, but those matches that have goals after 30 mins outweigh the losers. Therefore your strike rate can be much lower.
E.g. £10 x 1.4 = £4 profit (less commission)
(£5 x 1.4) + (£3 x 1.7) + (£2 x 2.4) = £6.90 profitTherefore the split stake strategy covers a loss significantly faster.
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Results:
4/4 FHG. 2 in the first 15 mins, 2 in the 15-30 range.
Profit +1.1 points
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@andrew-camp I love it as well, it's been that way for years for me. I think its conducive to my success too!
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
4 matches on my filter today. I've noted kickoff times as they're spread throughout the day.
6th January:
All Serie A
1130 - Sampdoria v Cagliari
1330 - Lazio v Empoli
1730 - AC Milan v Roma
1945 - Juventus v Napolion a side note good to see that virtually every game is on BT sport today, good effort from them there!
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4 matches on my filter today. I've noted kickoff times as they're spread throughout the day.
6th January:
All Serie A
1130 - Sampdoria v Cagliari
1330 - Lazio v Empoli
1730 - AC Milan v Roma
1945 - Juventus v Napoli -
@ryan said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@matt-ayles I do the same with my filters, I don't like to look to far ahead. I actually really enjoy the morning, checking the filters and news with a coffee getting it planned out in my head.
Spot on. Exactly what I do.
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@matt-ayles I like Serie A as well.
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@matt-ayles I do the same with my filters, I don't like to look to far ahead. I actually really enjoy the morning, checking the filters and news with a coffee getting it planned out in my head.
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@martin said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@matt-ayles yeah! at least there is Serie A action tomorrow
Nothing today either, but as you say, Serie A back from winter break tomorrow.
I have my filter setup for "Today" only so will see what's there in the morning!
