LTD Advice Needed Please

[A Former User]

Hi Folks. I'm after a bit of advice on LTD. Its the strategy I am going forward with, one I feel comfortable with, but here is my question.

Last night I selected Fulham v Sheffield United in the Championship. I staked £5 at odds before K/O of 4.4
I had waited to see if the odds dropped, which they didn't, but they rose up to 4.6, then dropped again to 4.4, at which point I layed the draw

Game Kicked off with a £17 and some pennies cash out, plus a minus profit of around 0.27 pence which then reduced down to £17.04 just before K/O

One in play the game started at a pace and within 3 minutes United had scored, which is where my dilema and the advice I need comes in

The cash out when the goal went in was £16 and some pennies, with a minus profit of 0.92

Bearing in mind when we lay the draw, we only want A goal to go in before cashing out,

should I have waited longer to see if the cash out profit went green

Should I have let the bet ride, win which case I would have won £5

Is this normal for a minus profit to show up, bearing in mind I still cashed out with just over 3 times my original stake money

Thanks in advance for any help with this one

[Ryan]

@dave-hayes top man, I’ll pick the email up and we can get cracking.

[A Former User]

@Ryan I appreciate your reply, I have answered fully in the email I sent you this morning. I use the CashOut option term because its how I take the pressure off of myself, when waiting for it to go Greem.But as written in my email and using the Lazio Game as an example, I got out with a nice little profit.

My chosen strategy is going to be LTD, I think its the safest one to start with, as well as being the one that is shown in the videos section for beginners.I chose that one after listening to all advice given and videos watched and it suits me now.

[Ryan]

If you are following the Betgreen then I have explained the way I use it on the video that goes with the strategy and will paste them here....

*LTD

All you need to do is lay the draw on the games that I have sent you. Then wait for a goal when there has been a goal you then need to back the draw to get a green screen and a locked in profit.

I get a lot of questions asking me how to trade out so I have answered them below, it is imperative that you read this....

If the Home team score first we trade out for a profit.

If the DOG scores first we wait and we trade out around the 80th minute for a profit if the game is still 0-1, in these games sometimes the DOG will get another taking the game to 0-2 then we take a bigger profit.

Sometimes the game goes 0-1 and then the home team scores taking the game to 1-1, in these games if the BACK price of the draw has not hit 2.0 we stay in the game until it does. Because there might be another goal.

If the game is a draw around 68-70 minutes then the BACK price of the draw is 2.0 and we trade out for a loss and move on. In the attached document I give a few examples and some places where you can make the trades and calculations easier.*

This isn't everybody's cup of tea this strategy - I know that, in fact I've be slated for years for still going LTD but I've been profitable every year for over ten years with it. That is not to say you should use it, only use it if its right for you.

One thing I am confused on here is the advice that the cash out button is an option. It's only an option if it fits the strategy, if you are following a plan of a lay the draw and will be aiming to cash out then waiting for another goal doesn't work. It will only work if its backed up with the data you have, which means you've tested it long term and see that to be the most profitable way.

I have replied to your email as well, I think starting with building a strategy and a way of trading that suits you is the route here. One which is aligned with how you will and want to trade and that you fully grasp and know what the scenarios are or could be so you can think more rationally in trade.

[A Former User]

@Darri Thanks for your advice and taking the time to do it.I really appreciate it. because after yesterdays games I was so frustrated and confused.

You mention LTD as being the safest strategy on BF, which is a conclusion I have come to.You also say that you bet pre match, with no cash out option.

Now prior to coming in to BTC, I was doing Pre Match set and forget on Laying the weaker Team. I had a good strike rate doing that, well over 80% on very carefully selected matches, but doing that built my BF bank up from £11.81 to over the £100 mark, so naturally I was well pleased.

Then I came in here, because I want to become better at BF trading/betting.
I had watched a stack of videos on Betfair itself and from one other guy, who is not part of this community, which is where I first learned about the Cash Out option. From watching those videos, it seemed apparent that after 1 goal being scored you can cash out, which is true, but as you have quite rightly pointed out and I have learned to my cost, doing it at the wrong point can be costly

I'll use the Fulham Sheff Utd game as an example. I had LTD, Sheff Utd scored early doors in 3 minutes. My initial reaction was 'That shouldn't have happend' so I panicked thinking a goal has been scored, I have a cash out value, but with minus profit, what do I do... I cashed out, But in hindsight if I had let it run, then I would have had a result and a small plus profit as the game finished 0 -1

So lesson learned.

I have also done the same thing on another game this week, I can't remember which one, but a foreign league possibly The Turkish Super liga(which I quite like) again the goal went in early, I panicked and traded out, but the end result was not a draw, so again I cost myself cash.

So last night, while watching TV, I sat and thought about things, that you had said, what i had been doing prior to coming here and since I have been here and this is my conclusion.

The games I have selected have been good both in terms of MOs and Research, my stats show that.

The issue comes down to this, the cash out option, which appears when the bet /trade is placed has suddenly become the focal point of my attention, rather than the game or the odds. This is because of the videos I have been watching, which placed /places emphasis on Greening up. if the trade is not going the way you would like it too.

You are right I like the cash out option, but I'm forgetting it is an option and not a must do unless the trade shows different.

So from today, when I choose my matches, if there are any that fir my criteria, as I haven't looked yet, then I shall being doing LTD, with the option button being used, if I feel that it is not going the right way.

From feeling really frustrated last night, to analysing it, this morning I feel very fired up, because I know that I have identified the issue that was causing this, so I can trade/ bet in a happy place.

[A Former User]

Final point, remember this is us highlighting and judging individual games. Long term trading is less about what each games does. Thats the issue in my opinion with the need to make p/l decisions. They should be set in stone. This allows you to know the long term success of a strat. Yes trading individual games adds up to the big number but you will have good trades that dont work remember its football. Moving towards a set and forget mode really is the best way to manage yourself. Be that Pre match, HT or post 70. Pick value and dont worry about trading out.

[A Former User]

An example tonight. Sevilla vs Barca. The match started with LTD odds of 3.5. Sevilla took the lead on 32 mins, 2 pretty even teams, but barca favs so keeps the LTD price low. Im sure data will likely show you that draws happen roughly around 20-30% of the time, think of that in odds terms thats either a break even lay of between 5-3.33 that in pre match terms is quite a healthy area to play in. The better you are at building a filter to find the best games here the better the predicted draw chance decreases, you can also build one for finding later goals for better profits, just need to build one for your approach. The odds went to 4.1. So say you placed a liability of £100, a green up would have got you £5.73. So all in all you risked £100 to make just 5% of your total risk. Yet your max risk will likely be a lot higher than that, maybe even 4-5 times that amount at least given that these are very short odds for LTD pre match, your example of the fulham game in the same situation produced a loss when the dog scored. Do you see what i mean by shorter prices giving you a better position here. In this situation youd have been better just backing the ov 0.5 goals market something we would all be advising against pre match. Not a good return, had it been barca it would have been roughly 5s, so a potential p/l of around £11.70, so 11% of your full risk. In this situation you are better off backing the fav in FH. The p/l and risk reward just isnt there. It for me is quite a bad strategy based on the fact youll need mountains of trades to make this worthwhile.

Its was 2.5 at HT after barca had equalised so overall you would have lost on this trade if you followed the betgreen approach. Now we have shown that LTD when looking to trade out is pretty poor in the FH, whats the impact on the 2nd half? Well had any team scored the price could well have gone back up to 4s if sevilla scored and more than 5 if barca scored. let say sevilla score pre 70 mins and goes back to 4.1 just like the FH. Youd have netted a green of £25. Thats 25% of your total risk. This amount only gets better the longer into a game the goal comes. This would be a big profit and it was the dog that scored. Again looking for that discounted lay odds to give us a strong base. In this actual game a red card came and the draw odds were just above evens so a small loss here, but dembele hit the post in the 80th min, had that gone in your profits would be around 70-80%.

This just shows that its value that matters not the actual strategy. You need value regardless of how you plan to trade. A strategy can give you a good way to maximise profits, but you need value first. I thing many strats miss out the info of. Its why personally i dont like the strat, not that it cant make profit, just that its no where near one of the better options for the beloved LTD strat. If you plan to trade out well with this FH your gonna struggle and your only way to profit is fav scoring so better risk reward backing them otherwise just wait till later in game.

The same could then be said about getting involved like i said +70 mins. This game had a red card so youd have not traded it and therefore would have avoided a loss. This allows you to see if a team is really up for the game and pressing. Is the game really open. Are the top goal and assist makers on the pitch (do this based on % of team goals that season). Are both teams going for it and if its only one team trying are they open to the counter? These are the key things here in helping you understand when and when not to trade. Right now just following a strat thats criteria in my opinion could be tweaked isnt providing you with any clues as to what is as is not value. Not hating the strat just dont think its optimal compared to all the other variations.

[A Former User]

@dave-hayes i get the sense you like the idea of trading not the set and forget approach that is quite popular among members right now. So for a trade out option you need to think about your potential profit and your max loss. Knowing both of these will give you your min strike rate. I dont have the data for this, you would need to track this yourself. I would strongly advise tracking to find out what odds pre match are value for your approach. If you are laying above 5 or more then its likely you have one of the teams are a fav. This means should the dog scores pre 60 mins you are very likely looking at a loss. So really you may aswell be backing the fav pre match instead. Its the only outcome pre 60 youd guarantee a profit from just ONE goal. As i said earlier you could wait for a team to go 2up or even wait ages inplay for the dog to remain ahead and get out for a smaller loss or break even. The issue is the fav comes back to draw and boom you are still losing. A game to then go above 2.5 goals for your win needs to have a decent strike rate too. For me too many variables.

So my advice is either extend your cashout time limit. Our exit for a good % of potential profit. One in which would be profitable with your strike rate. There is also the potential to remove red/liability and keep it as a free bet, this is good if the fav has also scored. Then also consider waiting for the dog to go 2up or doing the double dip and lay the dog. This is a more advanced way but also an option.

For me this is all too difficult. Your then basically making profit and loss decisions every single game. On a busy wekened this becomes a micro management minefield. Its why i prefer set and forgets. So my actual advice is to forget this way of trading LTD. The betgreen strategy can be tweaked for profit, but to me its too much of a grind. Id either go full on pre match LTD set and forget or LTD at HT/70mins either could be traded whenever a goal is scored or left alone. Do not now go away and just trade with money on these suggestions. Please track.

You need to know what price is value for your entry and if you plan to exit what % of profit is also good. Once you have around 200 games on a tracked spreadsheet let me see it and ill be happy to help. Iv seen your chat message, my strategy is posted on my blog whenever i see good trades. I trade far less than others because i prefer massive value games huge discount of lay prices. Some months will be large volume other not. So the best solution is look out for my blog posts but then also in background ill help you build your own strategy so you dont need to rely on my posts

Any questions guys let me know instead of me trying to explain everything in big posts maybe just specific questions you want asked and ill answer them in detail one by one. Much easier to understand

[A Former User]

@stuart-wallace i dont trade HT LTD i trade pre match was only suggesting it to avoid those kind of liabilities that Dave was having. I trade pre match and dont trade out. Thats because based on my data from my strategy the odds im taking are value and therefor over the long term ill make profit. I can then compound that profit month on month.

A SH LTD would give you less liability up front and therefore on the 70 min mark if you were exiting would be less loss. However, in my opinion any strategy advocating an early exit in the 2nd half is wrong to. The amount of goals scored between 70-FT is quite something, feel free to track this and youll see the same thing. Its the period of the game that many traders panic and in the words of warren buffet "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful" the markets after 70 mins start to pick up speed. There is a lot of price pressure between 45-70 with many looking for a goal to come and then as they all exit the price starts to drift more come 70. This was why i used to trade "Late Goals" it was my main strategy for a few years and what got me a big bank and turned full time from. If i had the time and wanted to do trading full time (i dont) then that is the strategy id still be doing.

So id even say going later in the game is better. Perhaps even looking at the 70 min mark. That way whoever scores, you profit. Of course this means you miss plenty low risk games and miss plenty small wins, your still getting on the losers but your involved with less liability and the profit potential is huge especially if you get very late goals, almost full profit.

As i said to dave there are so many was to play LTD. Its why its the best strategy there is on betfair. It is and id love people to argue against it. Its the only strategy youd ever really need to focus on. For me these are the suggestions id look for. If you want me to help you build something specifically for this hit me up on chat and ill give you a run down. Iv 2 years of +70 mins trading data and advice to give

[A Former User]

@dave-hayes from a quick glance at the strategy it says to cash out only if fav scores and then on 70 mins regardless, so not the way you traded it. Let me get through dinner tonight and ill come back and help you.

Here is the link to that betgreen strat:

https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/lay-draw-kick-ryans-betgreen-strategy

Not one for me personally but if you take value pre match then this would still be a good strat, i just dont like the idea of tiny increments, just leave you prone to bad swings. Like i say ill be back later and give you how id do it if you wish to have the cashout option as opposed to set and forget.

[A Former User]

@james-rome I think its the betgreen strategy he is actually following, so ill have a look at it and give you some suggestions. I personally dont like it, not saying you cant tweak it to make profit but its not one many traders fancy tbh, or many pros even trade. Give me a bit and ill get back to the comments later tonight

[A Former User]

@dave-hayes hey mate if you want to do that may look at Ryan's betgreen method it's on members filter and the stradegy page for how to use and its been tested

[A Former User]

@Darri The strategy telling me to cash out when a goal is scored was one I learned from watching YouTube vids prior to coming here and also the vids from the strategy area here.So thats how I have been going so far and yes I have the green up option.

To date I have been going in for LTD from the start of a game, choosing selective matches, which have involved the likes of the very strong team against the weaker team, then cashing out when a goal is scored.

What you say makes good sense and is very much appreciated.The HT option makes good sense.

[Stuart Wallace]

Darri, i am clearly at the same stage as Dave, in terms of doing LTD from begin of game.
Your comments are gratefully received.
With regard to 'value' and your strat of doing LTD at HT, what odds would you regard as value, and also, at what point in game would you be looking for your exit?
Again, your willingness to impart your knowledge is gratefully received.

[A Former User]

@james-rome said in LTD Advice Needed Please:

The reason why you still had a minus profit was fulham where strong fav before KO so the underdog scored first makes a draw more likely. Before getting in a trade you should have a plan on when you getting out. This all depends on what you want to do some people just let it run to the game has finished or some people take lose at HT or 70min. Depends on you but you should have a exit plan before getting in any trade

@Dave-Hayes - As @James-Rome say is the reason why and personally i will normal wait going in a trade when i LTD, if all is ok and the odds is fine and so on, i will still wait between 10 to 20 minmaybe before i enter LTD and the reason is i have a chance to see how the teams play and get a bit better odds, and sometimes i maybe wait untill 2 half before i enter LTD, but its all up to the situation and how i wanna "attack" LTD and how the match is played and i try that way to get the best prices in play.

You do a little pre match research after some criteria you prefer and feel good about to use i hope/think.

I also often go to other markets if i have a profit in LTD to try maximize the profit, so i that way have a free trade in maybe the over/under market as a quick exsample.

In your situation, if that was me, i will trade out and take the loss, the worst you can do is to stay in the trade and hope for the best, then better take the loss and follow the match and see if other opportunities will pop up
or just be done with the match and move on to the next one

[A Former User]

Also remember the issue with just picking games for one goal and cashout is that it makes people forget to take value in the actual starting odds. You end up just picking odds prices for no reason. You really want to have an idea on what is and is not good value for pre match odds. Then you also want to know when the value is for cashing out. There are many ways to trade LTD. I dont ever trade out of mine because i take good value pre match and can just let it run full match, but sounds like you like the green up option, in this case its still the same you need a good value starting price so that when that goal comes you have the best entry to maximise profit. Then you also need a good value exit. Right now you are just going off of someones rules, i dont know what strategy you are following but id advise you to think about how to maximise gains instead of small increments.

As ever this is just my opinion, but iv seen many try this way of doing it and over time small gains just get wiped very easily, taking away all that hard slogging. Value is key to all this its where we get our edge and make bank. If it was honestly as easy as just LTD start of a game, cash out after a goal and somehow you make profit then there wouldnt be any reason for trying other strats. Its just not that simple im afraid. Hopefully this strategy you found isnt leading people on. Im sure there is a reason they say cash out on a goal. They might be referring to a 2nd half goal.

[A Former User]

Another option is waiting till HT to enter, lower liability and less red if underdog scores. Going in from the start and trading out is a bad way of going id say. If you enter from start youd ideally be wanting a decent return on investment from these rather than small gains.

[A Former User]

What strategy is telling you to cash out when a goal is scored? The underdog always has a chance of scoring to upset your plans, but your going to be doing some very high volume with this kind of strategy and itll take a good while for you to build the bank by cashing out on ANY goal being scored. Try not using any money on these mate, there is zero point in wafting money into markets when you dont even know how to trade it fully. Its way too risky. Just paper trade until you know how the strategy works.

Try see if you can get a situation within a match where either the team ahead goes 2 up or just exit at 80 if any team is winning. Id strongly advise you to be tracking all trades and the final outcomes. You might be surprised if there is a better way of trading these. Yes its low risk in terms of full stake isnt at risk, but the profits aint good either so in fact its more risky than you might think. Just doesnt seem a good risk/reward for me personally. Not a strategy id be recommending.

[A Former User]

we all been there LTD underdog scores wounder why its turned green

[A Former User]

@James-Rome Thanks James. I have a plan on getting out with every trade I do on LTD which is either when 1 team scores, or 60th Minute if the cashout is still double, or it looks increasingly likely that neither side is going to score.

I was looking at some of previous trades in this and I have a profit where the strong team has obviously scored first.

Reviewing this trade in the strats section here, I found this https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/lay-draw-kick-ryans-betgreen-strategy and it gives me the answer, or at least A solution to my dilema last night