Journey to semi pro
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@martin-walker If you only have 1 main strategy you are going to have to accept that on some months you will see variance in terms of what you do and dont make. Its unrealistic not to think youll lose some months. Its all a matter of is it consistent long term and growing long term. We start to isolate months we start to worry more. If trading was just an easy lets make x amount every month no worries there would be plenty people jumping on this forum to make a living. Its just all about progress long term. You are focussing heavily on strike rate fair enough, but as long as those are working for you odds wise thats all that matters, not just blinded backing based on s/r. If this has done well over this whole year, but slackened just these last 2 months, id say its likely either winter leagues have changed your data/end to summer too, perhaps fans being fully back could have changed this, perhaps the weather especially the last 2 weeks some games have been horrendous. With strategies that are high strike rate/low reward strats you always have to allow for indifferent months. 5-6 losses and your struggling to crawl back those losses week by week.
So what im saying is dont be too put off and change things just for a couple indifferent months. See how this works thru winter. The amount of games goes up by almost half a normal month, so the data collected here will be interesting. If you go 3 months in a row id definitely look into it further by isolating the losers see if there are trends. But until then just be patient. Cant be raking in profits every month its just not that simple.
@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
Its only down about half a point this month which wouldnt be too concerning but last month only made 0.77 points profit.
Its up about 70 points since february so im not sure if this is a normal swing or not but im not comfortable with 2 months returning no rewardThis quote in my opinion is all you need to worry about right now. Its not like you losing huge in fact your winning months are always bigger than your losers and this is your first losing month, just keep going. You are stiil on track based on this to make 84 points every year with a 7% increase on average a month, thats not to mention any compounding you do. You dont get those type of low risk returns anywhere else all tax free. I think you need to just chill and let this run. Dont fix something not broken. If it persists then act but dont ever be rash and make changes, this is when the pros like to tell people why mindset is the key to all this. You have a good strat just manage it well by not overthinking or acting upon emotion.
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@richard-latimer 4 but tracking about 8
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@eamonn-hogan 91% dropped to 90%
If you look month by month though the last 2 have been in the high 70s -
@eamonn-hogan said in Journey to semi pro:
@Matt-Wood @Martin-Walker what sort of strike rate you getting?
Raw filter data is 85.76% for me. This is down from high 86% a few months back.
If I remove all leagues with less than 80% success the SR is 90.51%
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@martin-walker how many criteria are you using? I've found that even if you set some up to include almost everything it's good to see whether that particular criteria makes a difference.
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my shg filter going terriably i may look to change to back the scoreline at HT
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@Matt-Wood @Martin-Walker what sort of strike rate you getting?
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@martin-walker Morning Martin.
I have noticed a VERY slight but consistent decline in the strike rate of my 2HG filter too. I was going to take a closer look as soon as I get a chance to see if I can spot why. Like you say though hopefully just a bit of variance.Mine is also still up overall but deff showing similar trending like you have described.
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When i said slightly up the trade last night lost giving me the first losing month since trading this filter this year. Gradual decline in profit and strike rate over the last few months with this.
Ive been working a lot and havnt had time to really get into it and check whats going on. Hoping its a rough patch and will bounce back but im actually going to start working on a back up strategy in case.Its only down about half a point this month which wouldnt be too concerning but last month only made 0.77 points profit.
Its up about 70 points since february so im not sure if this is a normal swing or not but im not comfortable with 2 months returning no reward -
@matt-wood yes good thanks. slightly up for the month but nowhere near what i aim to make.
Ive reigned leagues and scorelines right in for now.
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Ukraine Premier League 29/11/2021 17:30:00 Oleksandriya FK Zorya Luhansk
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Rough return after the international break
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