Journey to semi pro

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Is there a under 3.5 goals filter ?

Martin

@martin-walker following with interest

Martin Walker

I changed the title from challenge as that was misleading, this is basically hopefully keeping me on one simple filter and compounding. No deviations, no silly cup trades when im bored, because im terrible at trading these.
Somewhere to keep me accountable

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Good luck, ill be following with interest. Definitely the right decision to go with 5%

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looking forward to seeing your journey mate, im glad you are starting this with a head start with a good solid filter, most wouldnt have done all that testing and tracking, you have and you are focussing on one strategy! All good signs

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Good luck will be following with interest although as with others have concerns over the 10% at risk per trade

Martin Walker

@darri youre right about the winter leagues, they smashed it on these last season

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@martin-walker excellent, sorry to have been bullish there but who cares we can now see how these go and hopefully they transition well with actual trades. I have a 93% shg filter but actually doesnt give out as many games as you have so im hopeful these continue to be good mate

Martin Walker

@darri 5% it is, youve all twisted my arm

Martin Walker

@richard-latimer if its lower ill give it a small amount of time to hit 1.25, 5ish mins. If its nowhere near ill leave it.

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@martin-walker average rising due to summer leagues id predict and actually rightly so given how poor they have been, still good enough but not a scratch on winter leagues

I do seriously hope you change that staking. But as iv said previously sometime people have to make their own mistakes to find this stuff out. You could laugh at me when you rake it in or you could lose a tonne of dosh, either way its sounds like a risk to be asking that question so just bring it down and make this easy for yourself, your bank and your mental state. You managed to take on my advice before and it worked i hope you do here too. Its not the strategy but the staking. So actually its not a huge issue, we are still gonna make money but we now dont have as much risk of losing all that hard earned cash.

Im looking forward to retiring off these if they remain above 91% and an avg of +30pts a month from just 1 strategy and using 5pts stake. Ill wait till you hit the winter leagues first

Richard Latimer

Oh I see, if the odds are lower than 1.25 @ HT you move on?

Martin Walker

Iceland Inkasso-deildin 10/08/2021 20:15:00 Kordrengir Afturelding
0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0

Min odds at HT 1.25	No red cards

Richard Latimer

@martin-walker said in 1k to 5k Bank Challenge:

@richard-latimer the average seems to be rising, its now at 1.26.

Pretty great. I have similar s/r and I'm pretty much anything from 4.5-11.00 lay odds.

When I reduce the odds I will inevitably go down into the high 80's and for every 5-10 mins I wait it will go down further.

Martin Walker

@richard-latimer the average seems to be rising, its now at 1.26.

Richard Latimer

@martin-walker said in 1k to 5k Bank Challenge:

@richard-latimer at the start i was taking whatever was on offer at HT if it was close to 1.25 so 1.23 for instance or id wait 5-10 mins if it was low.
Now im settled on minimum 1.25. The strike rate didnt change after this.
I also traded them all so the strike rate includes the ones where i had to wait 5-10 mins.
Any where the goal came too early is recorded on a wider filter but not on the one i use for the trades.
Nothing bumping the stats up

91% is amazing then for min odds 1.25. I still echo @Darri comments about 10% blanket stake being a little crazy but good luck anyway for sure.

Martin Walker

@richard-latimer at the start i was taking whatever was on offer at HT if it was close to 1.25 so 1.23 for instance or id wait 5-10 mins if it was low.
Now im settled on minimum 1.25. The strike rate didnt change after this.
I also traded them all so the strike rate includes the ones where i had to wait 5-10 mins.
Any where the goal came too early is recorded on a wider filter but not on the one i use for the trades.
Nothing bumping the stats up

Richard Latimer

@martin-walker said in 1k to 5k Bank Challenge:

I was using £150 per trade yesterday, ive reduced the bank to 1k and banked some profit. Now ive dropped my stake to £100 and left 1k in betfair.
Ive been trading this for almost 6 months now without a losing month so my stakes have grown with this. Also 2 in a row is my biggest losing run.

I had 3 in a row the other day like I said. People tell me my liabilities must be frightening but it's no different to backing with 10% stake. The only reason I'm ever happy going close to that liability is with higher odds. A lay at odds of 10.00 is more likely to come good than 1 at 5.0. Even taking into account a wait for the odds to drop your s/r still goes down.

I know I'm not good at being told what to do but blanket 10% seems like setting yourself up for a massive fall.

When you say your filter is 91%, what is the actual strike rate at min odds 1.25?

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@martin-walker 6 months of data wont accommodate any freak weekends bud! Please reduce this, im sure the btc lads will say the same, its far too high. Freak things happen. Just because you have never had more than 2 losing runs doesnt mean there wont be that crazy week blip. especially if you compound banks. Basically when you do that you restart each month meaning any new variance cycles would be very harmful to bank at these stakes. Take my advice or not, but seeing as iv helped you in the past and worked please try to think about it. Its too high no more than 5pts but, based on your avg p/l that would still be +30pts per month which starting from 1k is a huge sum in 2 years time, be patient, it wont always be so easy!!

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Watching this one too. Best of luck Martin!