Journey to semi pro
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0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 2-0 2-1
Italy Serie B 06/11/2021 13:00:00 Alessandria Ternana
Norway Obos-ligaen 06/11/2021 14:00:00 Raufoss Strommen
Norway Obos-ligaen 06/11/2021 14:00:00 Fredrikstad Aalesund
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 06/11/2021 15:15:00 Eupen Waregem
Switzerland Super League 06/11/2021 17:00:00 Grasshoppers Young Boys
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 06/11/2021 17:30:00 Kortrijk Beerschot VA
Germany Bundesliga 06/11/2021 17:30:00 RB Leipzig Dortmund
Switzerland Super League 06/11/2021 19:30:00 Luzern Sion
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 06/11/2021 19:45:00 St. Gilloise Charleroi
Italy Serie A 06/11/2021 19:45:00 Cagliari Atalanta -
0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 2-0 2-1
Serbia Super Liga 03/11/2021 15:00:00 Radnicki Nis Radnicki 1923
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0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 2-0 2-1
Serbia Super Liga 02/11/2021 13:00:00 Kolubara Sp. Subotica
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Thanks for all the replys about leagues, i like that everyone has different opinions here as you get a look at how different traders would do things.
I wont be drastically changing anything just looking to bounce ideas around.
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@lee-woodman yes, currently 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 and 2-1 are doing fine, everything else drops off or isnt enough data to add in yet
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@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
@matt-wood right i understand now i think.
Ive done both things you mentioned. I started with the wider and have slowly gone towards the tighter.
Now its just the tighter filterSo at one point i would of had loads of results for each league
As has been said many times and not just by me, there is more than one way to skin a cat. The changes I've made myself help me to feel more comfortable about everything. That's not to say you would be best doing the same. Ultimately do what makes you feel the most comfortable.
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@martin-walker Have you had a look at HT scores in relation to a SH goal? On my filter if the score is 1-0 or 0-1 at HT the SR after 70' is over 10% less than other scores and the filter average (at least 150 results for each of the 2 scores)
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@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
@darri like you say, after having a quick look leagues are by far the biggest influence on how many losses i had.
Dropped norway just in time to miss yet another lossThe thing here is yes norway has been a drain to you, but your overall is still in the profit. While i myself are looking to remove leagues for my ltd, im also aware that as long as the overall is still improving im giving it more time and not worrying about the inner details too much. Slowly im removing these leagues once i am full data backed by them. If we take some suggestions of 10/20/30 one loss here has a huge swing on s/r and might be the difference to a traded league and non traded, that league could then go on a massive run either way. Its just too small. Never try to add/remove on the fly, we fall into traps here, its like seeing a red win 8 times in a row on the roulette wheel, so we go for red again because its been red x amount of times in such a short period. This is why i disagreed with how others are handling this. Not that they wont still be ok from it just that there are flaws that could bite them in that logic.
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Dont add too much pressure on yourself here. I disagree with a few of the suggestions here, but again my own opinion. When considering leagues to trade just treat it as a strategy within a strategy. While it can take ages for some leagues to hit milestones thats kind of the point. You build a solid overall filter and slowly over time eliminate. If you do richards way you fall into the trap that this has happened x in this short period of time, ill expect the same to happen next amount. The issue with small data is every loss would have a massive impact on s/r for that league. Id do mine based on points won and lost. Right now you should already have a consistent filter (which you do), now when a league performs badly over a period of time and in fact hits a high points loss overall, start to leave it. Like iv said a strategy within a strategy. This is way more simple to control and isnt a hard thing to track. I beg that you keep this all simple, yes others want to do tweaks but this really doesnt need it. If a league gets to say 100 games. Its a good league with good points, youll just trade and ignore forever? NO you wont, if it took a 30 point hit the next 100 youd bin it hopefully before that happened. Try not to be so set with that side of it.
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@martin-walker Apologies for clogging up your blog with my bumbling words
I think I started off with quite a tight filter. This probably explains why you seemed to get far more daily selections than I did a few months back. I didnt understand it at the time but makes perfect sense now.
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@matt-wood right i understand now i think.
Ive done both things you mentioned. I started with the wider and have slowly gone towards the tighter.
Now its just the tighter filterSo at one point i would of had loads of results for each league
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@matt-wood said in Journey to semi pro:
@chris-osborne said in Journey to semi pro:
@matt-wood I’m similar to you accept I’ve opted for 50 matches will probably reduce over time and I’m paper trading on,y right now
Sounds a lot but when you get most games of a league on a filter doesn’t take too long.
Yes I agree, 50 sounds a lot but Ive only been tracking mine since the start of the summer and a couple of leagues already on their way to 50
Literally only league I have 50 on is Netherlands 2. A couple coming close.
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@matt-wood said in Journey to semi pro:
@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
@matt-wood i understand what youve said here but not your question lol
Haha Im probably bumbling my words totally here, tend to do that with things I dont fully understand.
Perhaps a better question would be do you prefer to tighten stats on the filter, thus generating fewer, higher quality results for your records or slightly looser filter criteria thus generating more results but with lower quality?
For my part I export a s**t load of raw data and manage the potential.
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@chris-osborne said in Journey to semi pro:
@matt-wood I’m similar to you accept I’ve opted for 50 matches will probably reduce over time and I’m paper trading on,y right now
Sounds a lot but when you get most games of a league on a filter doesn’t take too long.
Yes I agree, 50 sounds a lot but Ive only been tracking mine since the start of the summer and a couple of leagues already on their way to 50
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@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
@matt-wood i understand what youve said here but not your question lol
Haha Im probably bumbling my words totally here, tend to do that with things I dont fully understand.
Perhaps a better question would be do you prefer to tighten stats on the filter, thus generating fewer, higher quality results for your records or slightly looser filter criteria thus generating more results but with lower quality?
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@matt-wood I’m similar to you accept I’ve opted for 50 matches will probably reduce over time and I’m paper trading on,y right now
Sounds a lot but when you get most games of a league on a filter doesn’t take too long.
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@matt-wood i understand what youve said here but not your question lol
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@richard-latimer i get you here, my best leagues have 30, 40 traded games and are consistent. Could have the answer to how many games here
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It's not 100% but I find the leagues with more selections are usually the ones I can rely on. The stragglers tend to be outliers that very rarely qualify and when they do they are hit and miss
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@richard-latimer ive dropped a lot of the summer leagues like that
