Journey to semi pro
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@martin-walker I think I might do things a little different to you guys.
If wwe are talking about a number of games recorded in a league before you consider trading it, then a tighter filter on the btc software will generate fewer results but ones that should be higher quality. Slightly wider software stats would generate more results but then would include the odd loser so a higher number of recorded games would be needed to see a true representation of sr.
OR I could just be being 100% stupid here, entirely possible
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@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
@richard-latimer i was thinking 10 with a decent result myself. So 9/10
Thing is 9/10 means that your almost putting yourself back to break even with a loss and potentially going into the red. Allsvenskan is 10/11 with me bit not touching it for again for a while.
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@matt-wood im not sure i understand
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@richard-latimer i was thinking 10 with a decent result myself. So 9/10
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@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
What do people think is an acceptable amount of data per league to actively trade them.
I traded this based on an overall number of games at first but now im cutting leagues out.
Ive been doing this filter from february and i only have for example 7 games in some leagues.
At that rate it could take years to rack up enough data which is obviously not realisticFor myself I'm going with a minimum 10 straight wins, if 1 loss, a minimum. Of 15 selections. If 2 losses a minimum of 24 selections. It all kind of works itself out after that.
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@matt-wood ive been trading it since feb and its been through several tightening in stats which leaves my highest traded league on around 44 games. With a lot of leagues on 5 games.
Just curious to everyones different take on it -
@martin-walker I have set myself the rule of 30 game min from a league before it is considered. I have no idea if this is enough or too much but time will tell for me. I guess it has to be at a point where one result one way or another does not change the sr too wildly.
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What do people think is an acceptable amount of data per league to actively trade them.
I traded this based on an overall number of games at first but now im cutting leagues out.
Ive been doing this filter from february and i only have for example 7 games in some leagues.
At that rate it could take years to rack up enough data which is obviously not realistic -
@darri like you say, after having a quick look leagues are by far the biggest influence on how many losses i had.
Dropped norway just in time to miss yet another loss -
@martin-walker iv seen talk on this blog of changing alot of things, if you want me to be honest from someone who does fairly well consistently, just keep doing what you are doing. Not every month will be rosey. This type of strategy is so heavy on strike rate, 1/2 mistakes can be the result of a bad month. Certain leagues in your case being the result of that. Dont go too granular with changes. Keep everything as simple as possible. Look at the big data first like scorelines/leagues. If there are changes/improvements there make them, but only get granular if there are no obvious things to tweak. In this case maybe leaving summer leagues as a purely data tracking thing for now rebuild confidence in them and stick to winter leagues. There really is no worse way to manage your mindset as soon as you go down rabbit holes looking at each and every scenario. Just keep doing what you are doing, its working and its compounding your bank, many traders are yet to realise this is all youll ever need. Great work mate.
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Finished the month in profit, its been a terrible month and in hindsight wish i pulled the plug on a couple of leagues sooner. Could of saved a few points on those.
I also missed a couple of winners the other day working.Im disappointed but for such a bad month im really glad it stayed in profit.
0.77 points profit with 3.85% bank growth
I feel like its done poorly but if i look at it like ryan suggests and take the last 3 months its around 13.17 points profit with 65.85% bank growth compounded monthly
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0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 2-0 2-1
Italy Serie B 01/11/2021 14:00:00 Ternana Como
Norway Obos-ligaen 01/11/2021 17:00:00 Asane Bryne
Norway Obos-ligaen 01/11/2021 17:00:00 Ranheim K. Oslo
Norway Obos-ligaen 01/11/2021 19:00:00 Aalesund StartGetting these up early as ill be busy tomorrow
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0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 2-0 2-1
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 31/10/2021 12:30:00 Waregem Genk
Italy Serie A 31/10/2021 14:00:00 Fiorentina Spezia
Netherlands Eredivisie 31/10/2021 15:45:00 Utrecht Willem II
Ukraine Premier League 31/10/2021 17:30:00 Metalist 1925 FK Zorya Luhansk
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 31/10/2021 20:00:00 Gent St. GilloiseHopefully finish the month up with these
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@richard-latimer yeah i get you, the closely matched teams is something ive thought about before after a lot of 0-0s in those games last season.
I will have to look over my stats and results at the end of this month just to make sure ive not missed something. I will keep an eye out for the stuff you mention -
@martin-walker When i talk about outliers I also mean big numbers. I truly believe there's a sweet spot in most strategies that once you go over you find only a smattering of selections and a real hit/miss scenario because of it.
Also sometimes the middle numbers. Closely matched teams in terms of odds can easily nullify each other and cause a stalemate.
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@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
@richard-latimer i tightened it up and it became a good league again on the stats, then hit about 3 losers this week on it.
@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
@richard-latimer i tightened it up and it became a good league again on the stats, then hit about 3 losers this week on it.
I know people mock me for doing this but could any of those losses be deemed as an outlier of your overall strategy? Something which qualified but only just? Something where you may only have 3 or 4 selections which match it if you will. Often I find that I notice something, bench it and then see it crop up again and it's a loser.
Happened to me recently where I upped my ave over H2 odds from 1.07 after an unexpected loss. Although it was only the first of it's type from 7 selections it was enough to red flag it. Glad I did as would have suffered a 2nd loss today had I not.
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@chris-osborne possibly, i was thinking it could be a case of that
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@richard-latimer i tightened it up and it became a good league again on the stats, then hit about 3 losers this week on it.
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@matt-wood said in Journey to semi pro:
@martin-walker Norway has been great for me up until the last week or so.
Same for me I’m wandering whether it’s due to being close to the end of the season - only half a dozen games left
