My Trip Through Trading
-
Having not long passed my anniversary here at BTC I thought I would start a little blog.
I had been thinking about doing this for ages but not been brave enough (feel free to call me names). I have gotten such a huge amount of knowledge and enjoyment from reading other blogs here, I thought it was about time I made a contribution.
Before I go further I would like to say a huge thank you to anyone who has helped me in the last 12 months. Ryan, Martin, Darri, Stuart, Keith, Alan, Lee, James, Eamonn, Finn, Richard, to name but a few. Everyone on here is always helpful and the sense of community in the forum is fantastic.
At the time of starting this I still very much think of myself as a beginner at trading so I am not intending this blog to be instructional but if it helps others avoid mistakes I have made, then great!
I will try to keep this blog updated regularly as it will now be an accountability record for me too. I am moving from general learning now into how to generate a green month as often as possible. I will also try to keep everything as transparent as possible, so feel free to shout at me and laugh at me. This will be as much for me as anyone else since there is no hiding from anything once it’s posted on here.
I am not looking to make a full time living from trading but rather a secondary income to, hopefully, pay off the mortgage faster and retire earlier.
Starting bank is £100 on May 1st 2021. The rough target for the second 12 months of my trading career is to end the year in profit.
General trading rules:
MAX 2 points at risk on ANY and ALL trades placed.Slight change of plans. As of the start of Dec I had pretty much stopped placing money on trades and focused on my testing paper trades. So far this has worked out pretty well as the set and forget project was started by Martin which is a fantastic place to learn and to pick up trading filters that could eventually turn out to be gold.
-
@matt-wood said in My Trip Through Trading:
@chris-osborne Cheers for the reply Chris. It was a stupid little thing, I needed to put 0.85 as column G is a %.
If I had a £1 for everytime I did that with percentages could retire
-
@chris-osborne Cheers for the reply Chris. It was a stupid little thing, I needed to put 0.85 as column G is a %.
-
@matt-wood without seeing the actual spreadsheet cant be sure but you have everything from Select onwards in quotes which turns it into text but looks like you want to return anything where column G is greater than 85, i.e your trying to perform a calculation in a text field - could be wrong though
-
Posting this here as I didnt want to mess up other threads.
Can any of your spreadsheet mega brains see why this doesn't work:
=query(Leagues!A3:G, "select C, G WHERE G >=85")
When I try it, it filters out all results saying query complete with no output. There should be some results though.
-
Try not to be too hard on yourself. It happens. Learn from it and move on. Making mistakes is part of the learning process.
-
@matt-wood @Martin that’s good of you to say Matt (I know you’re not the only one), and a good point raised by Martin. I thought Easter might thrown a curve ball in there too as EFL teams know they have to play Friday and Monday.
I’ll take this advice on board too and go back to paper trading for a bit. Always best to protect the bank. “Those that run away get to trade another day” right?
-
@martin said in My Trip Through Trading:
@matt-wood said in My Trip Through Trading:
Ok so a lesson to be learned here.
Yesterday I was monumentally stupid. I decided, against advice that is freely offered all the time on the forum, to place min stakes trades on my under 2.5 set and forget.
This COST me just under 4 points. It also put me down for the month so far.
Martin has said on many vids/podcasts that TESTING is essential. I got my Billy Clever B******s brain on and decided I had tested the strategy enough! Clearly my brain resides in my rear end!
This is a living example of what the guys here at BTC are saying all the time. Don't put money on something that is not tested FULLY. I am suitably angry with myself for not listening to this advice. Will probably spend most of the weekend in a sulk
Sorry to hear this, did you see my video on April-May goal effect? I wouldn't touch this for a couple of month in Europe leagues or any where season is ending.
Thanks, my own stupid impatient fault really. I watch / listen to all the vids and podcasts so I have no excuse at all.
-
@matt-wood said in My Trip Through Trading:
Ok so a lesson to be learned here.
Yesterday I was monumentally stupid. I decided, against advice that is freely offered all the time on the forum, to place min stakes trades on my under 2.5 set and forget.
This COST me just under 4 points. It also put me down for the month so far.
Martin has said on many vids/podcasts that TESTING is essential. I got my Billy Clever B******s brain on and decided I had tested the strategy enough! Clearly my brain resides in my rear end!
This is a living example of what the guys here at BTC are saying all the time. Don't put money on something that is not tested FULLY. I am suitably angry with myself for not listening to this advice. Will probably spend most of the weekend in a sulk
Sorry to hear this, did you see my video on April-May goal effect? I wouldn't touch this for a couple of month in Europe leagues or any where season is ending.
-
Ok so a lesson to be learned here.
Yesterday I was monumentally stupid. I decided, against advice that is freely offered all the time on the forum, to place min stakes trades on my under 2.5 set and forget.
This COST me just under 4 points. It also put me down for the month so far.
Martin has said on many vids/podcasts that TESTING is essential. I got my Billy Clever B******s brain on and decided I had tested the strategy enough! Clearly my brain resides in my rear end!
This is a living example of what the guys here at BTC are saying all the time. Don't put money on something that is not tested FULLY. I am suitably angry with myself for not listening to this advice. Will probably spend most of the weekend in a sulk
-
@stuart-capstick CHeers Stuart, appreciate all the help here. Ive set up my ss to include the 85mins cash out option now so will see how it compares. I'll go with your recommended 80% and see if I can watch a few games live to see how close that is.
-
Actually, looking at some the matches on your filter, I think the draw price would be lower as you look for similar priced teams. Which means your profit on cashing out may well be higher than 76-80%
-
@stuart-capstick Thanks Stuart
-
The price would have depended on who was playing, in-play stats, how long the teams had been drawing etc.
But, if you base an estimate on the odds of a draw at 1.25 to 1.3 (so, winning around 76 to 80% of your stake), that would be a good baseline.
-
@stuart-capstick said in My Trip Through Trading:
Have a look at what would happen to your profit if you cashed out at 85 mins.
Afternoon Stuart. Im just having a look through my stuff now to apply this. Is there any way to guesstimate on my past results what sort of cash out profit I would have gotten at 85mins?
-
Psychologically draw betting can be difficult as you'll have a strike rate around 35%.
That means many losses and long losing streaks even for a long term profitable strategy.
But cashing out at 85 will reduce profit but psychologically be easier to accept.
-
ok so sunday turned out to be much better than saturday.
Overall a bad weekend though. Time for me to look at things with possible future tweaks and maybe, as Stuart suggested, a cash out time.
Todays 'long' list:
Hatayspor Adana Demirspor
Jong PSV Volendam
Barnechea San Felipe -
@stuart-capstick Thanks, thats something I think I will be doing tomorrow
