My Trip Through Trading
-
Have a look at what would happen to your profit if you cashed out at 85 mins.
-
Long list for draws today. Lets hope it goes better than yesterday
Rangers VS. Celtic
Sittard VS. Heracles
Clermont VS. Nantes
Jagiellonia VS. Zaglebie
Karvina VS. Bohemians 1905
Ponferradina VS. Las Palmas
Basel VS. Young Boys
Cambuur VS. Nijmegen
Wisla VS. Piast Gliwice
Osijek VS. Hajduk Split
Altinordu VS. Adanaspor AS
Juventus VS. Inter
Guabira VS. The Strongest
A. Italiano VS. U. Espanola
Carlos Mannucci VS. Cesar Vallejo
Santos Laguna VS. Pachuca -
Rough day for the draws, worst this filter has ever had so far.
These were whats left after eliminating non qualifiers from my long list.
Curiously 3 of the eliminated games were 0-0 so would have been 3 more winners. These three were just outside the qualifying numbers. I think this may be where my creep comes in. I see those games eliminated that were JUST outside the limits and then include them next time.
-
@matt-wood What might help is to duplicate the filter but have the duplicate to only show the games that fully meet the criteria. So filter 1 is the full list to export, think of this as purely for data collection, and filter 2 is the active trades (so you can literally trade all of these).
This helps mentally separate the two but also makes it more convenient to see the games to trade without needing to use a spreadsheet
-
Ok so long list for draw selections today. I expect roughly half to 1/3 of these to actually qualify. Will update as the day goes on.
Sapporo Vs Urawa
Mafra Vs Benfica B
Lichtenberg Vs TB Berlin
Walldorf Vs Kassel
Furth II Vs Heimstetten
Chemnitzer Vs BFC Dynamo
Dukla Prague Vs Lisen
Olsztyn Vs Odra Opole
Crewe Vs Fleetwood Town
Newport Vs Exeter
Leeds Vs Southampton
Rochdale Vs Swindon
Plymouth Vs Oxford Utd
Stranraer Vs Forfar Athletic
Falkirk Vs Montrose
Stenhousemuir Vs Annan
Sport Boys Vs Binacional
Dortmund Vs RB Leipzig
Honved Vs Paks
Hansa Rostock Vs St. Pauli
Cincinnati Vs Montreal Impact
Orlando City Vs Los Angeles FC
Necaxa Vs Club America -
@martin Yes thats what I need to do. I am finding it harder with this though as it is my first odds based filter and my brain fights with itself on when to take the odds as the qualifying, or not, number. If I look in the morning first thing, they could change by 15min pre KO. I have found myself checking them multiple times throughout the day. This is obviously a huge waste of my time
-
-
@martin It is usually that I creep on the requirements for game selection. I have a bit of a fiddly (for me) method for this and I tend to just slightly edge this way or that on selection as I get (over)confident. This time I will be super strict, added to the posting here to keep it all on display.
-
-
Right I have been testing a back the draw method. I have failed at this a fair bit already. Most of my failures seem to come after some success and I lose discipline with the game selection process. I am going to post up my selections here for accountability as it will all be here in black and white. Please don't place any money on these as it is still only in its second round of testing. I am paper trading these only. If this second round of testing goes well I will post the full method and write up.
Progress so far:
Will be looking to get this second round of testing to at least 100 games before making any more changes, if needed.
-
@chris-osborne said in Can I even trade...:
@matt-wood Sorry, Was starting to get interested then it became an article about xG which in my opinion is the most pointless stat in football
I feel like xG is the new Brexit for stats! Really a love hate stat isn't it.
-
@chris-osborne Yes I can understand that but the graph they have also shows actual goals achieved at different kick off times, which was more interesting to me.
-
@matt-wood Sorry, Was starting to get interested then it became an article about xG which in my opinion is the most pointless stat in football
-
Very interesting article here about the Prem
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2022/03/how-kick-off-time-affects-premier-league-games/
-
@matt-wood this is really interesting. I was messing about with scalping over reactions to goals in football and noticed those movements on high odds.
-
